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MCLARKE

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Posts posted by MCLARKE

    GENERAL RACING CHIT CHAT

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    The process to arrive at the day's selections is fairly automated so only takes a couple of minutes.

    I dread to think how many hours I have spent analysing data in the past. I think if I divided my profits by the amount of time I'd probably be earning about 1p / hour.

    I do enjoy the process though and there are always new angles to be looked at, you have now got me fixated on developing a system for heavy going.

    My each-way strategy

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    On 11/10/2020 at 7:47 AM, Villa Chris said:

    There are a few others on here that can offer better advice than myself. All I’ll say is that there’s no golden egg betting on the horses . I’ve used a few different methods over the years , and I think you kind of have to learn the hard way

    I agree, your main focus needs to be to enjoy the horse racing, if you are wanting to make serious money there are easier areas than horse racing. I've been betting for 40 years and probably lost money for the first 30 years although I didn't keep records then.

    I would suggest that paper trading your systems is key and I wouldn't risk real money until  I had at least 100 winners and was showing a profit.

    GENERAL RACING CHIT CHAT

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    21 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

    I just wonder what sort of data do you download every day and how you use it?

    The data I use is the basic data that you can find on the PL race-card (form, age, weight etc.)

    I have several years worth of data which I have analysed and developed various strategies from. I then download the current day's data and apply the strategies to this to arrive at the day's selections. 

    GENERAL RACING CHIT CHAT

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    On 11/10/2020 at 2:42 PM, The Equaliser said:

    My hero Patrick Kilgallon pointed out that I can get about 30% winners by just blindly following the top TWO rated of any reputable private  handicap authors

    I am always dubious of such statistics. If you just blindly followed the top 2 in the betting you would get about 60% winners so in this context 30% is nothing special.

    Strike rate is pretty meaningless, it is the profit figure that is key.

     

    GENERAL RACING CHIT CHAT

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    It is difficult to quantify value as we will never know the true chance of a horse winning. There are so many variables involved in racing that it is impossible to take account of every one of them.

    Some of these variables we don't even have information about. I used to have a profitable system at the greyhounds based on the dog's weight, this probably applies to horses as well but it is information that we do not have.

    To me the only way we know that we are getting value is if over the long term we are making a profit.

     

    Racing Chat - Tuesday 10th November

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    On 11/10/2020 at 11:51 AM, Trotter said:

    I'm fascinated by these occasional 2 horse races ...... last time I picked the outsider of the two and lost

     

    They are few and far between, over jumps there have been 89 over the last 7 years.

    You are right to go for the outsider, although as expected they have only won 26 of them you would have made a profit of 9% by backing them.

    It is also profitable to back the lower weighted of the 2.

    Having said that the stats are influenced by Duel at Dawn (10/1) beating Blue Rambler (1/16) in 2016.

    GENERAL RACING CHIT CHAT

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    5 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

    Also, I think it seems a bit unfair to conclude that RPR's showed a loss when top selections were compared with SP.

    I'm good ta. These aren't calculations I have made, they were printed in the RP. All I was trying to say was that the RPR top ratings generated a similar return to that of favourites, I think this will be the same even if using BOG or BSP.

    An interesting thread, thanks for starting it. I think I'll look at some of the rules I tend to use and list them un here to see what other people think.

    GENERAL RACING CHIT CHAT

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    I

    7 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

    I am not about to get into the realms of studying and producing my own ratings but instead will use what is readily available to me.

    Therein may be the problem, if the ratings are readily available to you then they are also readily available to everybody. Therefore plenty of people will be using them as part of their selection process and this will bring down the odds of the selections. It will therefore be very difficult to make a profit by using these ratings.

    I seem to remember from when I used to read the racing post that the RPR top rated produced a loss at SP of about 8% which was roughly the same as for favourites which would indicate that that the market takes account of these ratings.

    I think the only way to be successful is to find influencing factors that the market does not take account of. This may well require calculating your own ratings or using ratings that are not so readily available. Then it is vital that you search out the best odds available.

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