MCLARKE
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Posts posted by MCLARKE
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No Henderson horses today so I'll revert to my young handicappers system even though it did prove disappointing in November.
There is 1 selection in the 2.30 at Southwell. There are 3 horses younger than 7 but only FULL OF SURPRISES has been off a long time (41 days). Available at 13/2 with BET365.
- The Brigadier and Wildgarden
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SOUTHWELL 12.20
ECOSSAIS 9/4
BET365
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SOUTHWELL 12.55
JOLY MAKER 5/2
£20 WIN BET365
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6 winners in the top 25.
@PercyP moves up a place to 4th with 2nd place Midnight Shadow in the tricky 17 runner chase at Cheltenham.
@raysingh_guru mover from 12th to 6th with the best bet of the day, Iconic Knight at 6/1.
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They've rocketed every year for the last 11 years. The only potential downside is that US regulators start to clamp down due to their monopoly power.
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35 minutes ago, calva decoy said:
Just checked account & because it's a cash back if horse comes 2nd race you get price as taken so only 7's which I shouldn't snivel about really , but ..
A bit sneaky this one, the offer sounds great but they generally offer lower odds and do not offer BOG.
It is the same with the extra place offers, they do not offer BOG even if you do not bet each way.
I used to be a big ban of Sky but since they were taken over the Stars Group they have been poor value and I very rarely use them.
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Of my 2, one fell and brought down the other, the joys of jump racing !
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I also have National Express, it has shown good positive momentum.
I only make a couple of investments each month and hold on to them for 12 months. Hold them for any less and the cost of trading and the share spread starts to eat in to any profits.
- waggy and alexcaruso808
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2 hours ago, The Brigadier said:11 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
Nicky Henderson has 2 runners in the 3.00 at Cheltenham tomorrow. I will go with VERDANA BLUE at 16/1 as this also fits a number of my other strategies.
good luck Michael, Nico seemed a bit cautious on RacingTV yesterday but we'll see
Now in to 10/1 so some support.
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4 hours ago, Villa Chris said:
He has one at Hereford which I like the look of . Fugitives Drift( runs at 2.32)
Only negative to me is the high weight.
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DONCASTER 12.20
BILLINGSLEY 11/4
BET365
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On 12/11/2020 at 12:08 AM, MCLARKE said:
CHELTENHAM 2.25
STORM CONTROL 13/2
BET365 £20 WIN
Almost threw it away. A profit of £130. Total for month +£150.
DONCASTER 12.55
MAGIC DANCER 5/1
£20 WIN BET365
- LEE-GRAYS, Trotter, Villa Chris and 1 other
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Nicky Henderson has 2 runners in the 3.00 at Cheltenham tomorrow. I will go with VERDANA BLUE at 16/1 as this also fits a number of my other strategies.
- The Brigadier and Wildgarden
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CHAMPAGNE MYSTERY also fits my criteria for Nicky Henderson's December runners so I will also have a bet on him at 16/1. Also fits in to my young handicappers system.
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Trends for this race.
59 horses have carried more than 10st 10 lbs and only 2 have won. This reduces the field to 5.
22 horses ran less than 22 days ago and all lost.
This reduces the field to 3, CHAMPAGNE MYSTERY, MILITARIAN and ROMAIN DE SENAM.
28 horses have had forecast odds of greater than 12/1 and all have lost.
This leaves ROMAIN DE SENAM - currently available at 22/1.
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Today wasn't any easier with just 6 winners.
No change in the top 9 although @BBBC edges up a place to 10th with the gambled on DE FORGOTTEN ONE.
Best bet of the day goes to @Tipsterix with FEMINISM @ 9/2.
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Who knows where the peak is?
There are many shares that continue to grow and grow. My most successful share is OCADO. This was £3 in 2016, £11 in 2017, £14 in 2018, £22 in 2019 and reached £29 in 2020. I have taken big profits along the may to make sure I an not over exposed. All this time the PE of OCDO has been very high but it hasn't stopped these massive price increases.
Another example across the pond is Amazon, this has reached a new peak every year for the last 11 years and has shown a return in that period of 3,400%.
Again it has an astronomical PE of 91.
The PE ratio is a rather crude ratio and only one of many measures used in investing.
Momentum investing is a tried and tested strategy that works. A simple momentum tracker shows better gains than the average fund manager.
It has generated me a an average return of 10% for many years so I'll stick with it.
I only wish it worked as easily for horse racing !
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On 12/10/2020 at 2:56 PM, Villa Chris said:
Anyway he said never be put off by the price no matter how big the odds, never bet odds on, and never go E/W.
Generally due to the longshot / favourite bias it is difficult to make long term profits backing big priced selections.
Many of my best bets have been odds on.
In certain situations each way bets make sense, often when there is an odds on favourite. It all depends on the shape of the betting and the number of runners. My most profitable strategy over the last few years has been taking advantage of the extra place races offered by bookmakers. Sadly due to restrictions these opportunities are now few and far between.
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6 hours ago, Trotter said:
I think BOG is definitely shrinking with time limits as to when you can avail yourself of it. You can foresee a time when it'll only be available between 10.00 and 10.30 AM on the day of the race !
As for the Naps comp ...... I don't think it matters as long as everyone is treated the same
For the first few years I was doing the Naps comp it was settled at SP ...... that probably made life easier for the admin but it took away part of the 'fun of the chase' which is obtaining a value price
The number of bookies that are allowed in the competition has reduced over time and the ones that remain are the ones that offer BOG the night before.
I agree with @Trotter that obtaining a value price is quite crucial although acknowledge that not all of us will be able to avail ourselves of these prices.
Personally if I can't get the best price with a traditional bookie then I will take BSP.
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On 12/10/2020 at 11:34 AM, roger2256 said:
People be aware Sue Smith's horses are just coming in to form
Roger, how do you determine this ?
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4 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:
You say you make money on the stock-market, then why are you asking the above question,the answer should be blindingly obvious.
Unfortunately it's not.
It's a lot easier to make money on the stock market than with horse racing. The average investor on the stock market will make money, the average punter on horse racing will lose money.
The rule that works well on the stock market is the 200 day rule. When the share price is above the 200 day moving average then it is time to buy, when it is below then it is time to sell.
The problem with trainers is what period to use, x days or weeks or x number of runners.
I might do a bit of research unless somebody already has an answer.
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55 minutes ago, alancraik said:
CHELTENHAM 14:25 Storm Control 13/2 e/w 3 Places 1st
Almost threw it away on the run in, a nervous few seconds.
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CHELTENHAM 2.25
STORM CONTROL 13/2
BET365 £20 WIN
'SIR PUNTALOT' KO CUP (QUALIFYING ROUND) - Deadline Sat 2pm
in NAP of the Day Competition
Posted
Yesterday's results.