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MCLARKE

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Posts posted by MCLARKE

    Racing Chat - Thursday 5th January

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

    Very warm thanks for your comments.  This time last year I was down 19 pts by backing horses.  I just want to give "laying" a go this year and see how I get on.  I do realise that it is no cake walk to make a profit out of laying short priced selections.  As the year goes on I should pick up invaluable pointers as to which horses to "lay" and those to avoid.  It is the trying that gives me a buzz not necessarily being wonderfully successful.

    I was trying to point you in the right direction of almost guaranteed profits but if you want to ignore the advise then so be it.  

    Racing Chat - Thursday 5th January

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    23 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

    Many thanks for your helpful comments.  I'm going to stick with "lay" bets for a while.  I love the idea of the multiple bets and the big payouts but hate the long-losing sequences I endure when trying to get them.  Even if my next lay bet goes wrong I will only be down 7 points for the month.  

    I think you will struggle to make a profit laying short priced favourites.

    If I was you I would take advantage of the various bookmaker offers out there, this is still where I made most of my profits last year.

    In particular Sky usually have an offer on TV days of money back as cash if your horse finishes 2nd, 3rd etc, back the favourite in these races and you are just about guaranteed to make a profit. Also with Sky they offer good value in extra place races, 4 places where there are 8 / 9 runners, 5 places where there are 12-14 runners and any races where they offer 6 or more places. They also give you a £5 free bet if you bet £30 in a week.

    Other bookmakers offer good offers as well but I am restricted with them so can't comment but if you have a look at them and ask for advise on here I'm sure we'll be able to guide you as to how you can make a profit from them.

     

    Racing Chat - Thursday 5th January

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    54 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

    Is there any formula to work out whether a horse has been given a generous opening mark by the handicapper on debut and will have a good chance of winning? The other day I quite fancied Star Child trained by Archie Watson in the 2.30 at Chelmsford which won at 9/2, but this was just a hunch.  This also leads me to another question which is are there any statistics available to show which trainer(s) are adept at doing this? Perhaps Michael @MCLARKE might know the answer to this one?  

    Not a big fan of trainer statistics to be honest although I'm open to persuasion. I think Mark Prescott was good at this but this soon became well known so any value quicky disappeared.

    Racing Chat-Tuesday 3rd January.

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    44 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

    Thanks for the info.  Doesn't it make sense to post up this informative info on the thread that is currently being used before posting up selections? A bit like your 5 year old selections info. Has this expired now we are into the New Year? Or would it be good for PL members to carry on with it?

    Fair point. I assumed that PL members looked at all at the races threads but maybe not.

    Yes the 5yo system only applied to November / December, they are not profitable in January.

    The next period that they have been profitable is July / August on the flat so I may resurrect it then.

    Racing Chat-Tuesday 3rd January.

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    @The EqualiserDo you not look at any of the other threads ?

    On a previous thread looking at trainers

    I've had a quick look at trainers based on last 6 years January data.

    I've sorted by number of runners and then looked at those trainers with an AE greater than 1.02.

    Nicky Henderson is top but has made a loss for the last 3 years so I'll pass him by. 

    Next is Donald McCain Jnr with an AE of 1.21

    I'll apply just 1 filter and exclude runners at more than 2m4f as his record for the longer distances is poor with an AE of 0.76

    I'll also exclude those horses with forecast odds of 20/1 or higher as they also have a poor record

    All bets will be recorded at BSP

    Selections 1st January

           
    Catterick 2.25   Whitehaven
    Musselburgh 2.45   Nayati (Won, BSP 14.5)
    Musselburgh 2.45   Collingham
    Musselburgh 3.20   Gaelik Coast
    Musselburgh 3.20   Navajo Pass
    Catterick 3.35   Cartonne
    Cheltenham 3.40  

    Dino Bellagio

    Racing Chat - Saturday 31st December

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    I tend to bet those horses that don't tick the boxes, it sounds counter intuitive and is difficult to do but it works for me. It is all based on statistics.

    As examples

    It is often stated that a horse being fit is a plus factor. However horses that have had a run in the last 22 days have an AE of 0.97.

    Horse won last time, AE 0.996

    Horse finished 2nd last time, AE 0.964

    So generally I would ignore those horses that finished 1st or 2nd last time

    Course winner, AE 0.99

    Distance winner, AE 0.98

    So I would start out with horses that didn't start 1st or 2nd last time, hadn't won over the course or distance and last ran more than 22 days ago.

    If I exclude those horses with forecast odds of 25/1 or more then the results over the last 9 NH seasons are

    Wins 7,221

    Runs 67,057

    LSP 2,049.73

     

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