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MCLARKE

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Posts posted by MCLARKE

  1. COUNTY HURDLE

     High rated horses have a poor record. Those with a BHB rating of 140 or above have 2 wins from 140 runs with a loss of 120 points. The remainder have 7 wins from 105 runs with a profit of 123 points.

     A decent rest is useful. Horses that have not had a run in the last 6 weeks have produced 5 wins from 51 runs with a profit of 59 points.

     This leaves just 2, GIN COCO (50/1) and AUCUNURISQUE (50/1), 6 places.

  2. CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP

    I have looked at the statistics over the last 10 years and these are my top 5 that should be considered.

    It is not generally a race for big outsiders. The horse should be in the first 7 in the betting forecast. There have been 56 outside this range and they have all lost.

    5 of the last 10 winners ran at Leopardstown, 2 at Tramore, 2 at Newbury and 1 at Thurles. Those that ran at the other 11 tracks had 0 winners from 68 runners, including 21 that previously ran at Cheltenham and 16 at Kempton.

    This leaves 3, GALOPIN DES CHAMPS (11/10), FASTORSLOW (6/1) and GERRI COLOMBE (8/1).

    Horses aged 7 or 8 perform best. These horses have won 9 times from 65 attempts with a level stakes profit of 18 points. The rest have just 1 win from 65 attempts with a loss of 62 points.

    8 winners (from 38 runners) were sent off last time at odds of 2/1 or less. This removes FASTORSLOW.

    There is an ideal rest period of 33 to 73 days with this producing 9 winners from 69 runners.

    This leaves GALOPIN DES CHAMPS at 11/10. Not an imaginative selection but he ticks all the boxes.

  3. 2 hours ago, calva decoy said:

    so I'm up £5.01 despite 18/1 & 14/1 winners & a 40/1 placed so my theory of backing singles either win or each way Is & always will be far more profitable than multis but hey , it's just small stake fun .

    I did the maths a while back and if you get the double / triple odds bonus then you are better off betting in lucky 15s. @Zilzalian converted me but then the bookies banned me !

  4. FULKE WALWYN KIM MUIR CHALLENGE CUP

     

    It pays to be fit. Those that last ran 11 to 28 days ago have won 6 times from 61 runs with a profit of 108 points. The remainder have 4 wins from 162 runs with a loss of 120 points.

     This leaves 5, DEMNAT (50/1), WHACKER CLAN (7/1), BOWTOGREATNESS (14/1), WHEREITALLBEGAN (9/1) and RAPPER (33/1).

     Those horses with an SP of between 13/8 and 4/1 have 6 wins from 43 runs with a profit of 79 points. This leaves DEMNAT and BOWTOGREATNESS.

     Horses running over a distance 5 to 10 furlongs further than last time have 4 wins from 19 runs with a profit of 57 points.

     

    This leaves DEMNAT at 50/1 (5 places).

     

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