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MCLARKE

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Posts posted by MCLARKE

  1. 14 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:

    Royal Parade is the lowest forecast fav (RP) and has the best Fav > 2nd Fav differential (which imo is a better indicator than just being fav)

    I have analysed my base data and it does prove informative.

    For a differential above 267% there is a profit of 10.96 from 499 selections (2.2%)

    For a differential below 267% there is a loss of -75.62 from 913 selections (-8.0%)

     

  2. 4 hours ago, ralphie7 said:

    very sorry the rubbish continues

    Maybe trainers methods have changed and the benefits of a recent run are not what they once were ?

    Are you going to perservere ?

  3. BET365 4/1 TV Offer Selections

    Scratching my head on this one.

    Another poor month with 3 winners from 31 selections and a loss of £575.00

    Total now 26 winners from 233 selections and a loss of £2,572.50

    However I am showing a profit overall of £72.35 from 433 selections on all the BET365 4/1 offers. These include the other BET365 4/1 offers (2 per day on non TV days).

    I assumed there would be a better edge in the TV races because BET365 have to make this offer on all these races whereas on non TV days they can select the races they make the offer on and one would assume they would pick 2 bookie friendly races. However the stats don't back this up with a profit of £2645 from 200 selections.

    I will perservere until I have a full year's selections.

    Today's selection

    DONC 8.10 Wynter Wildes (4) 4/1
  4. 5 hours ago, Trotter said:

    It's also very dispiriting if a 1/5 shot loses and you know it's going to take 4 or 5 winners to get that stake money back ....... then if one of them loses you're up the creek needing 7 or 8 winners to get back to levels

    On the other side of the coin, I like to watch my horses win and it will be quite comforting to watch them win most of their races. If you are confident that long term you will make a profit then the occasional loser is not an issue, it's a fact that 1/5 shots will lose once every 6 runs.

    As with most things in racing you need the right temperament to cope with the inevitable losing runs. At least with this process those losing runs should be short.

  5. 7 minutes ago, Trotter said:

    Just to add to my post above regarding the stats suggesting that you can't make a profit on odds on shots ........ that of course refers to backing all odds-on shots

    But of course no one would do that

    I suppose I am trying to prove just that, albeit selecting just 1 per day.

    Backing them all at SP results in approximately a 4% loss, I'm hoping to turn this into a profit using BOG.

  6. I use the Race Advisor for my raw data. 

    Horse Forecast Odds
    Bresson 1.62
    Inspirited 1.73
    Royal Parade 1.18

    I believe they use the RP as their source data, not sure why they are different to the figures you quote. It doesn't make a lot of difference, I'm only using the data to quickly identify odds on horses.

    I obviously made an error in selecting Bresson, for some reason I picked the 1st horse in the list, rather than the lowest odds. However it still fits the criteria of the process.

    Interesting point about the fav to 2nd fav differential. This will remove those a lot of those situations where there are 2,3 or 4 runners in the race where there will often be an odds on favourite. The losses in these small field races are 3% higher than the average.

     

  7. I have purposefully excluded any form study at all in this exercise to try to prove that odds on selections are viable in their own right.

    I am sure that any returns can be improved by adding additional criteria.

    These include (for flat racing) :-

    Exclude the top 3 in the weights. This increases returns by 9%

    Irish bred 5%

    1st or 2nd last time 3%

    More than 6 runners 4%

    Not drawn in top 3 3%

    Good to Firm or Firm going 4%

    Last ran more than 30 days ago 5%

    Last ran less than 13 days ago 7%

    Exclude 5/6 furlong races 2%

    Forecast odds less than 4/5 2%

    Male horses 2%

     

     

  8. There have been a number of comments about never backing odds on horses. I am going to start a trial on these horses.

    The basic premise is that these selections should have an edge because :-

    1. The favourite-longshot bias. This is an observed phenomenon where bettors tens to overvalue longshots and undervalue favourites.

    2. There is a tendency for some bettors to specifically not bet on odds on selections. If a horse is 11/10 they will have a bet but at 10/11 they will not. The bookmakers will be aware of this and therefore they will lengthen the odds on selections and shorten the odds against.

    I will pick 1 horse a day where it is forecast odds on and the first show on BET365 at 5pm is odds on. If there is more than 1 selection I will take the one with the lowest forecast odds.

    I will post the selection as my nap in the naps competition to avoid having too many threads in At The Races.

    I will also keep a record of the price movements to attempt to identify the best time to back these selections.

    I will update this thread once a week.

    The 1st selections is Bresson in the 2.10 at Yarmouth tomorrow. Forecast odds are 2/11. Opening price at 5.01 on BET365 was 4/9. Interestingly this has already shortened to 2/9.

     

  9. 2 hours ago, calva decoy said:

    Runs at Nottingham in the 2.30 & is 20/1 across the board & drifting .

    Has been gelded since last run & is down 1.5f in trip but I expect another hands & heels midfield run & then next week an opening handicap mark of mid to late 50's before being stepped up to 12f on fourth run & becoming competitive .

    Just reading a book by John Gibby (Well-Handicapped Horses) which is quite heavy going but basically looks at horses who often run over inadequate distance and going for the 1st 3 runs to achieve a low handicap rating. They are then run over their ideal trip.

    This sounds like such a horse.

  10. 1 hour ago, Trotter said:

    something else I noticed looking at the Fast Results on the Sporting Life ........ a lot of these races were flagged up as Skybet paying an extra place even on fairly small fields ...... like 3 places in 7 runner fields etc. I didn't know that !

     

    Yes they do offer excellent extra place terms, it's my most profitable earner at the moment. The only downside is they don't offer BOG.

  11. 2 hours ago, The Accountant said:

    This Cycle comes to a close with a loss of €521.

    Net position to date after 5 cycles is +€382 (starting with an opening stake each cycle of €30)

    Just FYI

    Fixed level stake backs of €100, net of 2% commission is -€379

    Fixed level Win staking to win €98 (€100 - 2% commission) per selection is +€884

    All using Betfair SP

    If you are making a profit with proportional stakes but not level stakes does this indicate that you should exclude the longer priced selections ?

    I was betting on this to small stakes after the success of the 1st cycle but with a level stake loss of 60 points over the last couple of months it is not for me.

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