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** July Naps Competition Result: 1st Gary66, 2nd BBBC, 3rd kenisbusy, 4th Johnrobertson. KO Cup Winner tonythepaint. Most Winners Budgie65: **


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Posts posted by MCLARKE

  1. On 7/3/2022 at 3:12 PM, richard-westwood said:

    The argument that always ..always pops up is course adjustment so straight off I needed to factor that in .... then you have your class rating itself ....then an adjustment for where you finished ....

    Each one of course has its pitfalls and I'm sure will require a bit of debate but it's not impossible and it's a worthwhile thing to try and do 

    As always, a very interesting debate.

    I think I've attempted to use courses before to determine class but it wasn't particularly successful.

    You could have the situation where a horse that ran in a class 6 handicap at Epsom has a rating of 16 compared to a horse that ran in a class 1 listed race at Bath which would have a rating of 4. This seems illogical.

    Is it not easier to simply use the class of the race last time or the value of the race ? 

  2. 4 hours ago, harry_rag said:

    Just to check my understanding of AE (had to google it but it seems to be what I was more familiar with as "EV").

    So if female jockeys have an AE of 0.95 does that mean you'd get 95p back for every £1 you staked on a horse ridden by a female jockey?

    And if male jockeys have a positive AE does that mean you'd make money blindly backing every horse with a male rider?

    I'd have expected horses ridden by women to show a worse return than those ridden by men (most of the rides on the better horses will no doubt go to men and most of the top 20 jockeys are men) and I just wondered how big the gap was. The notion of backing every horse ridden by men and making a profit seems a bit bizarre. 

    It may be that I have an incorrect understanding of AE or that there are different ways of calculating it! 

    My calculations are based on BSP. The AE for male jockeys was 1.004, this means you would make a profit backing them blind before commission but after commission you would make a loss of just under 2%.

  3. 52 minutes ago, Labrador said:

    The fairest way to analyse this would be to compare female jockeys on favourites with male jockeys on favourites.

    I don't think using favourites will really add anything. There is a very wide range of odds for favourites. you cannot compare a 2/1 favourite to a 4/1 favourite.

  4. 53 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

    Would the figures be much better if you just looked at all male jockeys? 

    I imagine there are far fewer female jockeys and that a lot of poor rides by men go unnoticed unless a punter had backed their mount but there’s a tendency to spot poor rides by women due to a slight degree of bias.

    This was purely based on statistics, male jockeys had a positive AE and female jockeys had a AE of 0.95

  5. 5 hours ago, alexcaruso808 said:

    I don't rate female jockeys at all, apart from Hollie.  Last time I bet on a female jockey was Mollie Phillips riding a Tony Carroll trained horse at Lingfield.  Absolutely terrible! 

    I think the last time I analysed the data it did show that female jockeys showed a poor return.

    There were a few exceptions (including Hollie).

  6. 10 hours ago, Quartu SE said:

    4/1 B365 (Please note my selection yesterday was paid out as placed with Hills which is why I did it with them at shorter odds,apologies if you are using what we would call the old place terms as opposed to individual bookies,never thought of it before tbh)

    Monthly Naps Competition Rules 


    • No conditional bets or special offers by any bookmaker will apply to the competition.
  7. Trends for the Old Newton Cup (Haydock 3.15)

    Age = 4, 2 from 61


    8th to 11th in the betting, 5 from 28, AE 4.90

    This leaves INCHICORE and IT'S GOOD TO LAUGH

    Last ran more than 16 days ago, 3 from 72

    This leaves it's IT'S GOOD TO LAUGH at 16/1, 6 places

  8. On 6/30/2022 at 11:07 AM, Johnrobertson said:

    Personally I have been backing horses seriously for 6 years and this is easily my worse month, 67 bets, 8 winners and 20 second places!

    I have had a poor flat season so far with my own selections, the level losses so high that I have decided to call it a day for this flat season. Fortunately I have only been backing to small stakes so not too much damage done.

    I am working on a few other strategies so hopefully these will be up and running in a few weeks time.

    I have also been backing @The Accountant's selections and these have been very poor in June, again only to small stakes.

    My selections based on the BET365 4/1 offers have also been very poor.

    I have had a fair bit of success betting on the SKY extra place races.

    I just about scraped a profit for the month, the deciding factor being @LEE-GRAYS50/1 winner in the £20 daily challenge thread.


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