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MCLARKE

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Posts posted by MCLARKE

    BLACK FRIDAY OFFERS

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    CHARYN won (2/1), HELTENHAM won (1/1) and RATH GAUL HILL won (100/30) for a profit of £106 less £10 blakjack

    Total profit £ 1,463.21

    Doncaster 1.55 BUST A MOVE 18/5 £20 20% boost

    Doncaster 3.05 BERNARDO O'REILLY 13/2 £20 20% boost

    SURINAME 23/20 £5

    SPEED RATINGS

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    53 minutes ago, Trotter said:

    One problem if you really want to get obsessive about compiling your own figures is course configuration in the sense that courses might have variable going on different parts of the track. If you think about a large tract of land out in the country with dips and hollows and undulations it's evident that water will gather in the lower lying parts of the track ........ and the going will be softer there. So for example there might be a marked going difference between the round course which goes out into the country and a straight track........ and many race courses have both round and straight tracks

    Very difficult to assess this with a small sample size of maybe 3 races on the straight and 3 on the round at a particular meeting

    That's one advantage of AW racing ....... the tracks are flat (Ling has a bit of undulation) so the 'going' tends to be uniform across all distances

    There are many problems with speed ratings, I suppose the evidence for me will be if I can make any money out of it !

    The small sample sizes used to calculate the all important going allowance is a concern, especially if you take out the outliers. The going often changes during a meeting and is probably different between the first race and the last race.

     

    SPEED RATINGS

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    On 3/21/2024 at 10:23 PM, Systemight said:

    As a young man i did speed figures for two year olds on the flat(there was no all weather racing back then) and had some success,and certainly a lot better knowledge of the form book.

    However, while i started with enthusiasm,i soon found the workload a bit of a chore,particularly when the losing runs hit.What finally put me off then(as still happens now),was the constant moving of the rails making distances longer or shorter than the officially stated.Thus (to my eyes at least), made the ratings at best unreliable.

    Interesting to see him mentioned here, and as an author i think Nick Mordin had few peers,indeed his book "Betting For a Living" was in my opinion the best book on horse racing betting that i have ever read.His book on speed ratings however lagged behind Andy Beyer's work "Beyer On Speed"(again only in my opinion).

    One must remember that Nick Mordin's phoneline (as there was back then) was regularly listed as one of the most unprofitable Horse Racing service around, costing his devoted followers dear-clearly the man could talk the talk,but couldn't really walk the walk-well not when the money was down anyway.

    Nick was last heard of having retired from Journalism to go and live in South Africa,a big loss to us all, as he had many thought provoking and innovative ideas...

    I wonder if Nick's lack of success with his phoneline was the same reason with good tipsters today, the bets quickly become overbet.

    I will persevere for the time being. I was intending to produce speed figures for both GB and Irish racing, however the Irish don't have the same classification ratings as the GB so I'll stick with GB for the time being. 

    SIR PUNTALOT KO CUP FINAL - Deadline Saturday 2pm

    in NAP of the Day Competition

    Posted

    From @bymatrix

     

    2.17 Navan  Union Station  ( each way )  4/1 Bet 365

    3.50 Newbury  Crest of Fortune  ( each way )  9/2 Bet 365

    8.15 Wolverhampton  Kingwell  ( each way )  11/2 Bet 365

    Reserves

    6.30 Newcastle  Star Jasmine  ( each way )  7/2 William Hill

    8.00 Newcastle  Bonito Cavalo  ( each way )  5/1 William Hill

                                                                                                                                Thanks MC and best of luck to John         :cheers

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