Jump to content
** March Poker League Result : =1st Bridscott, =1st Like2Fish, 3rd avongirl **
Download the PL Forum App!
** Cheltenham Tipster Competition Result : 1st Old codger, 2nd sirspread, 3rd Bathtime For Rupert **

MCLARKE

Administrators
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    10,551

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    453

 Content Type 

Posts posted by MCLARKE

    BLACK FRIDAY OFFERS

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    UNCLE ALBERT won, TOTTENHAM / total goals under 4.5 19/20 won, TORINO won

    Daily profit £17.50

    Total profit £ 1,401.51

    Cork 2.30 ASTERION FORLONGE 3/10 £20 10% boost

    Cork 4.40 JERK 18/5 £20 10% boost

    Southwell 2.40 ASHWIYAA 4/1 £4

    Southwell 3.50 JUST RITA 11/4 £4

    Fairyhouse 2.00 LUCKY LYREEN 10/1 £5 free bet

    FC AUGSBURG 4/6 

    BLACK FRIDAY OFFERS

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    PETER WRIGHT won

    Daily profit £14.50 less £9.97 casino

    Total profit £ 1,384.01

    Cork 2.20 UNCLE ALBERT 27/10 £20 20% boost

    Cork 2.55 RAMIRO 21/5 £20 20% boost

    Haydock 5.00 PILGRIMS KING 11/4 10% boost

    TOTTENHAM / total goals under 4.5 19/20 £10

    MANCHESTER CITY / FC PORTO / SC BRAGA / GENOA 7/1 £10

    TORINO 3/4 £5

    SPEED RATINGS

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    21 hours ago, Trotter said:

    just noticed from your list that Chipstead is running tomorrow ....... Newc 3.35

    Surprised at his price 33/1 considering he'd won over this distance on the AW 4 weeks ago and he'd also won off this OR before

    Came 3rd

    SPEED RATINGS

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    3 hours ago, Trotter said:

    Looking good McLarke ! ........... 👍

    Good to see that the class variances do increase as you go down the ranks ..... this is what you'd expect logically and it would have been a bit of a problem if it was any different 

    your new system is now very like mine as regards the steps involved in coming up with a final figure 

    you obviously have the advantage of running a huge database whereas I work out the ratings day by day at the end of the meeting and store that info for future reference. So for example if I was looking at the 3.00 at Newcastle tomorrow and I'd been keeping up AW ratings all winter I'd have a stored rating for every run of all the runners over the last 5 months

    How would you go about looking at this race ?

    By the way tomorrow's card at Newcastle might be a good card for anyone wanting to have a crack at producing their own speed figures after the meeting has finished ...... good quality racing on an AW surface

    Yes it is encouraging that the results appear logical, notwithstanding that Catterick appears to produce fast horses.

    I am still in the analysis stage at the moment, I haven't yet worked out how to use them !

    Strangely the service I use for my data only provides the finishing time in the horse's previous race. I can calculate the finishing time in the current race for most of the historical data (probably 95%). For 2023 it's probably 80% and for current races I will beed to input the data manually. I have all the rest of the data so it'll probably only take a couple of minutes per day.

    My next stage is to take each horse for 2022 and analyse it's speed figure with it's future races and see what conclusions I come too.

    Once I have all my data completed for 2023 I would be able to take any race and look at the speed figures achieved historically and calculate who has the best speed figure. It may then be a case of deciding if the current race has similar conditions to the race in which the best speed figure was achieved (distance, going, OR, time of year etc).

     

    SPEED RATINGS

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    I've parked setting my own standard times for the time being after going round in circles many times.

    I've decided initially to use the Raceform Standard Times.

    So my revised method is :-

     

    1. For each race compare the actual time to the standard time.

    2. Convert these into seconds per mile.

    3. Calculate the average variance for each class of race. This gives the seconds per mile slower than standard time by class.

    image.png 

    4. For each race amend the variance by the class adjustment.

    5. For each meeting calculate the average of the adjusted variances. This is the going allowance for that meeting.

    6. For each race amend the variance by the going allowance. This gives the final variance.

     

    This has created some interesting and unexpected numbers. In my top ten I would have expected to see the winners of the big group 1 races at Royal Ascot etc. However this is not the case. The top rated are :-

    1. + 1.68. MINZALL. Haydock Group 1. No surprise here as it was a new course record. 

    2. + 1.62. LIVE IN THE DREAM. Sandown Class 2 Handicap. Won 4 times from the next 14 runs at prices of 28/1, 12/1, 5/2 and 11/8. This include the Group 1 Nunthorpe at York so obviously a class horse. 

    3. + 0.82. ANMAAT. Haydock Group 3. Won 2 from the next 3 at prices 23/10 and 13/10.

    4. + 0.67. TANMAWWY. Ffos Las Class 3 Handicap. A poor record afterwards with 1 win at 13/8 from 7 runs before being shipped to the US. 

    5. + 0.63. DUBAI MIRAGE. Salisbury Class 2 Handicap. Won 1 from the next 4 at 11/2.

    6. + 0.63. GOOD LUCK FOX. Catterick Class 5 Handicap. Ran 11 times since without success (although none of them were on heavy going). Not the sort of horse you would expect to see with a high speed figure. The going was heavy and all the races were run upto 27 seconds slower. Perhaps speed figures achieved on heavy going should be ignored or at least treated with caution.

    7. + 0.59. REGAL REALITY. Windsor Group 3. The time was 1.99 seconds faster than standard despite the going being good to soft. Won 1 from next 7 at 5/1.

    8. + 0.43. AZANO. Redcar Class 3 Handicap. Faster than standard and also carrying top weight of 10 st 2 lbs would indicate that this was a top class performance. However only won 1 of the following 15 races at 5/1.

    9. + 0.39. SHEIKH MAZ MAHOOD. From the same meeting as GOOD LUCK FOX. Won 1 from the next 4 at 15/2.

    10. + 0.36. SEANTRABH. Catterick Class 5 Novice. Going was Soft (Heavy In Places). Won 1 from the next 7 at 15/2.

    11 + 0.36. PYLEDRIVER. Ascot Group 1. Won 1 from next 2 at 7/2.

    12 + 0.29. STAY ALERT. Newbury Group 3. Faster than standard but no success in the next 5 races (although they were all higher class races).

    13 + 0.28. CHIPSTEAD. Catterick (again !) Class 2 Handicap. Won 3 from the next 14 at 16/1, 12/1 and 12/1.

     

    A lot more work to do but so far looks encouraging.

     

     

     

×
×
  • Create New...