Lemon Silk
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Posts posted by Lemon Silk
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Tomorrow's selections:
12:10 Lingfield Matterhorn
4:15 Kempton Port of Leith
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I think Alastair has hit it on the head there. Going on the profitability alone of PL tips I'd be using big stakes but as happened last month, there was a bad month. This is what we can't predict so a bank of 300pts+ would be my personal preference. When I started backing PL tips I caught them at a good time, quickly making £1,000+ from £7 bets, I could have easily lost the same amount. From there I went up to £10 and then £12.50 within the space of 3 months, making sure I made a decent profit at each staking level. That's my two cents
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Normal service resumed
4:30 Wolverhampton Steel Train 7th -10.78pts
6:00 Wolverhampton Shamshon 6th -10.78pts
Total Profit/Loss -21.56pts
Current Bank:: 1056.15pts
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MCLARKE thanks for highlighting this! I had to go back and look at what day the meeting was on, and yes, I made a mistake!
I had my ratings done beforehand but somehow, and I'm not sure how, I got it into my head that there was no AW racing Saturday, and Sunday, as happens at this time of the year. I thought the next AW meeting was on Monday. PL doesn't tolerate aftertiming and neither do I.@ @BillyHills @Sir Puntalot please delete the post with the latest wins if needed
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Today's selections (and they really are for today
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4:30 Wolverhampton Steel Train
6:00 Wolverhampton Shamshon
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The only snag is that I thought the meeting was on Monday, as you can see in the original post, didn't end up backing them as I usually do, thought it was too early then ...
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That's just what the doctor ordered!
5:15 Wolverhampton Tagle 1st @ 11.00 +88.26pts
6:45 Wolverhamton Deputise 1st @ 5.56 +40.24pts
7:45 Grey Britain 1st @ 3.33 +20.56pts
Profit/loss: +149.06pts
Current Bank 1077.71pts
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After a terrible run of 13 losers that shows no signs of stopping, the bank now stands at 928.65 pts
![:\](https://forum.punterslounge.com/images/smilies/ohwell.gif ":\")
Monday's selections:
5:15 Wolverhampton Tagle
6:45 Wolverhampton Deputise
7:45 Wolverhampton Grey Britain
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Posting that stat definitely didn't help
The A/E is 1.09 and the archie score 15 if anyone still believes me -19.35pts today ...
Tomorrow's selection:
5:15 Kempton Mans Not Trot 9.48pts
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I'll cut to the chase: -72.80pts. A miserable day with only two horses placing, beaten by a nk and 1/2 length and a short head. 'Nearly' still hasn't won a race though ...
The system shows a LLR of 25 and a steady 9.8% ROI in the last 10 years of backtesting and the winter/spring is when it really gets going. Onwards and upwards!
Tomorrow's selections:
6:30 Chelmsford CIty Cuttin' Edge
7:00 Chelmsford City Greatest Journey
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Big day today, let's hope for an upturn in form
12:00 Lingfield In The Cove
5:15 Newcastle Bahkit
5:30 Kempton Scofflaw
6:00 Kempton Tropics
6:15 Newcastle Mr Potter
7:15 Newcastle Fake News
7:45 Newcastle Breathoffreshair
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12:50 Lingfield Deeds Not Words 9th -10.62pts
3:20 Lingfield Come On Dave 8th -10.62 pts
Profit/Loss: -21.24pts
Current Bank: 1040.35pts
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Tomorrow's selections
12:50 Lingfield Deeds Not Words
3:20 Lingfield Come On Dave
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The finest of fine margins turning a 30pt loss into a 21pt profit
4:45 Wolverhampton Zipedeedodah 6th -10pts
4:45 Wolverhampton Decoration Of War 3rd -10pts
6:45 Wolverhampton Contrive 1st @ 5.34 +41.23pts
Profit/Loss: +21.23pts
Current Bank: 1061.59pts
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Today's selections:
4:15 Wolverhampton Zipedeedodah
4:45 Wolverhampton Decoration Of War
6:45 Wolverhampton Contrive
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7:45 Wolverhampton Salute The Soldier 2nd -10.62pts
8:45 Wolverhampton Lucky's Dream 5th -10.62pts
Profit/Loss: -21.24pts
Current Bank: 1040.36pts
New Stakes: 10.40pts
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5 hours ago, Darran said:
I don’t no. The main reason is people will get different prices from what I put them up at sometimes shorter and sometimes bigger. I think there can be a lot of willy waving with it as well. If I was charging for it then I would obviously put a rough profit up, but it’s free and I think of people want to know the history they can look through my posts on here. I could say I was 100pts up and no one is going to check it. If I wasn’t making a profit then I wouldn’t do it because I know people put their hard earned cash down. Indeed when things haven’t gone well in the past I have taken a back seat.
Very good point Darran, there's a sizeable minority out there that would call someone's tipping 'unrealistic' if they could 'only' get 11/5 on what was put up as 9/4
This also happens with the PL Horse Racing Tips, some have shortened by a point or two by the time I back them, some drift and end up winning. These 'terribly misleading' prices have ended up making us over £27k, shocking stuff by these so called tipsters that cost us nothing Darran's tips have made roughly +27pts of profit since the first week of November, amazing knowledge of the lower leagues !
- MkayaGG, thinkpink63, Darran and 1 other
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Today's selections:
7:45 Wolverhampton Salute The Soldier
8:45 Wolverhampton Lucky's Dream
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There were no selections yesterday either, sorry for not posting!
Today's selections:
1:00 Southwell Corelli 10.25pts
1:30 Southwell First Excel 10.25pts
2:40 Southwell Earl of Bunnacurry 10.25pts
6:45 Newcastle Melgate Majeure 10.25pts
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No selections tomorrow
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Not a bad first day, let's hope I can keep up the gallop! (terrible pun intended
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12:10 Southwell The Lock Master 7th -10pts
2:10 Southwell Lads Order 4th -10pts
2:40 Southwell Sandridge Lad 1st @ 5.75 +44.60pts
Profit/Loss: +24.60 pts
Current Bank: 1024.60 pts
New Stakes: 10.25 pts
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Buoyed by yet another great year following the PL Horse Racing Tips, I've decided to take the plunge and start my own ratings system - don't worry BH, your job's safe
I like to concentrate on the AW handicaps because the going doesn't really change and the horses usually are a pretty exposed bunch - I could say other things but I won't
Anyway, starting bank is 1,000 pts and each bet is 1% of the current bank, all bets @ BFSP (-5% commission). We'll kick things off with Southwell on Tuesday, a favourite track of mine, the fibresand throws up a decent amount of surprise winners and I hope to post the odd one or two:
12:10 Southwell The Lock Master 10pts
2:10 Southwell Lads Order 10pts
2:40 Southwell Sandridge Lad 10pts
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Bet365 limit me all time on less then 1euro per bet and some high odds i cant bet. If you UK just go to bookies shop and continu to takimg cut from them pie!!!
Well done Nenad, if that is happening to you then you must be winning a lot !
Today's stunning form shows no signs of abating as Ispolini and Desert Doctor oblige in the first two races at Kempton ...
Do PL tips really make a profit?
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Just to go back to what Systemight posted a few weeks ago, the LLR (longest losing run) is important, mainly to determine stake size, depending on how risk averse you are. For me, the drawdown combined with average winning odds gives an even clearer answer to the size of stake question. Taking the PL strike rate to be 27-28% we can expect a losing run of 30-31 in the worst case scenario. Say we then set our stakes at 2.5% or £25 with a £1,000 bank. Looks good with a 10 bet buffer to boot. Let's say we go on an expected 14 run losing streak and then hit a winner, losing streak over! But what if the winner's only 3/1 ? Sure, you make +3pts profit but you're still down 11 points. Let's say the next day you have another stinker of a day, losing 10 more points. Suddenly the longest losing run staking plan looks extremely shaky. That's without the worst case scenario. Not suggesting anyone here would be foolish enough to use this staking plan and I think Robinmgb is right only using £30 stakes with an £8,000 bank. Sometimes though, it's better to look like a fool than to say nothing