Bubbles180

Yes you are right about 95% do leave it in and blow it but that is just bad discipline, I strated with £2000 and was shown how to use 50% of your funds and always have a reserve bank of the other 50% and from any profit replace any used from the reserve and also add 25% of profit to the reserve until you have 5 times the bank in reserve which I know have this gives me plenty of leeway, I now have 3 banks doing this same system.

Calder Prince    15.15 Wolverhampton        5.50 bet365

My 5 for today
Calder Prince    15.15 Wolverhampton
Ghost    17.20 Wolverhampton
Dancing Brave Bear    17.45 Chelmsford
The Juggler    18.15 Chelmsford
Related    20.15 Chelmsford

Yes
Think of it like a PAYG mobile theres no point to use it (from the 50pt bank)  if you already have enough credit in to pay for the call (profit), If I make 20 calls (bets) if I'm in credit (profit > 20) why would I need to top up(from the 50pts)
It should actually read losing all my bank in 1 losing run is 1mill to 1.
Purely due to laziness I stated that this is derived from my current ave sr
Unfortunately not having the foresight of Nostradamus I couldn't know what my sr would be post 2010 ,so the bank of 50 pts was actually derived from my pre 2010 lowest sr of 24% and Ive always left it at that, the reason that I used my lowest sr instead of the average sr was purely as an extra safety net.
There is always the probability of several losing runs combined causing a black swan effect although probable, highly unlikely that the sr will deviate that far from the mean due to the amount of bets per season (ave 470) being nowhere near the million mark. log 470/-log(1-.33) = 15 losing runs
How do I come about the 50pts.... (6/-log(1-0.24)) = 6/-log(0.76) = 6/0.119 = 50.34 = 50 rounded to 1pt
6 = log of 1million
1-0.24 = 0.76 the losing sr
why -log?, if we log less than 1 (which we are, as your logging a %age as a decimal) we get a negative number ,so by doing -log we get a positive number.
I wouldnt say I'm more knowledgeable than than the next man about racing in fact far from it most probably worse than the average Joe Public , its just Ive put the hours in over time found something that works for me at this moment and stuck to that ,I just play a numbers game, its boring, repetitive and actually takes the gloss off even bothering to watch racing now I don't bet on anything other than my statistical selections anymore.(horse racing wise)
I was planning to retire in 2020 but it might be this year if they cant get my knee sorted out soon its been around 6 months now ,they've done some 'keyhole surgery' on it (the doc must live in a f*ckin castle if the hole in my knee is his idea of a keyhole  ) but all thats done is cause an infection now so its worse than it was before ,thats bye the bye, Im hoping for a good year this year if the rain can stay away I might need it.
 
 
 
 
 

815 Chelmsford
Related 9/2 bet365
Just two AW meetings on Thursday, getting a bit bored now!
Anyway i'm going for the Paul Midgley/Luke Morris angle in the 6f handicap. I quite like the way he ran on his first start since October when 3rd at Kempton a couple of weeks ago. He went off quick and was just knackered entering the final furlong through lack of fitness, that will have brought him on and from stall 2 should get the run of the race and hopefully hang on.

Hey, I forgot what I had for breakfast

thats brilliant bubbles

Yes you are right about 95% do leave it in and blow it but that is just bad discipline, I strated with £2000 and was shown how to use 50% of your funds and always have a reserve bank of the other 50% and from any profit replace any used from the reserve and also add 25% of profit to the reserve until you have 5 times the bank in reserve which I know have this gives me plenty of leeway, I now have 3 banks doing this same system.

sorry billy forgot that my bad dooh 

Not wanting to get to involved in this to much but my view is like this
My aim is for a ROI on Invested Capital not Stakes
I am a firm believer that your yearly aim should be the ROI on Investmented Capital, as I treat my betting as a Buisness this is my main aim on returns, as I also Compound each month on my yearly banking system this gives me a greater ROI on my INITIAL INVESTMENT.
For example 2017 stats where
Yearly Starting Bank £100 Staking at 1%
Year Profit £5,530.50
ROI  5530.50%
Actual Money Staked £123,351.58
Yearly ROI on Staked Money 4.48%
As you can see their is a huge difference in results based on Initial Investment or Staked Investment this is why I do all my results based on Initial Investment and Yearly P&L
I also do a monthly Banking System (Flat Staking) were I have a Monthly Starting Bank of £1,000, the P&L on this is up and down obviously based on results but my yearly expectation for this is a ROI of 25%+ per year rather than a monthly ROI, if I have a Losing Month then I still Invest £1000 on the next month, I withdraw All Profit each month and then add to the bank from the profit if I have a losing month.
Hope this helps and is understandable
 

Not wanting to get to involved in this to much but my view is like this
My aim is for a ROI on Invested Capital not Stakes
I am a firm believer that your yearly aim should be the ROI on Investmented Capital, as I treat my betting as a Buisness this is my main aim on returns, as I also Compound each month on my yearly banking system this gives me a greater ROI on my INITIAL INVESTMENT.
For example 2017 stats where
Yearly Starting Bank £100 Staking at 1%
Year Profit £5,530.50
ROI  5530.50%
Actual Money Staked £123,351.58
Yearly ROI on Staked Money 4.48%
As you can see their is a huge difference in results based on Initial Investment or Staked Investment this is why I do all my results based on Initial Investment and Yearly P&L
I also do a monthly Banking System (Flat Staking) were I have a Monthly Starting Bank of £1,000, the P&L on this is up and down obviously based on results but my yearly expectation for this is a ROI of 25%+ per year rather than a monthly ROI, if I have a Losing Month then I still Invest £1000 on the next month, I withdraw All Profit each month and then add to the bank from the profit if I have a losing month.
Hope this helps and is understandable
 

915 Kempton
Iley Boy 15/8 bet365
Got to wait until the very last race for this one to run! I have this clear on my figures for his last two starts and a 3lb rise looks well within his capabilities. He has had a 67 day break and gets into this Class 6 0-55 event, he won a 0-60 last time off 53. This looks quite a weak race to me?
 

Jungle Inthebungle 2.55 lingfield 2/1 bet365

130 wolv
Midnightly.   377
Bahamian heights.  371
Gameson.   371
Gameson is back after big layoff so overlooked .....midnightly has been in sparkling form and form looks strong so in a weak race should make a bold bid to continue win streak  ... only horse i can see to take him on is Bahamian heights who has been out of form as 25/1 quote suggests but now has perfect conditions so no surprise to see a revival today if in the mood
Midnightly 10ptswin 7/4 Betv
Bahamian heights 2pts win 25/1 generally

Final Table
50/1 shocker on the last day snatches it for Thebestthere
Boulder, Luckypants and Pete1971 fill the places.
Prizes:
£80: Thebestthere
£40: Boulder5111
£20: Luckypants
£10: Pete1971
£30 Cup: Striker
Can all winners send their PayPal addy, PL name and Prize being claimed to:
[email protected]
7 days to claim, can take up to 14 days to reach your account
___________________________________________________
26 players qualify for the Cup next month, 69 players entered overall and placed a total of 1302 selections, 21.6% strike rate and a total profit of £68.
Well done to all and thanks for supporting the competition
 

 

Gronkowski    15.55 Newcastle 3.25 Bet365

Mar 30
Good luck on the last day

Gronkowski    15.55 Newcastle 3.25 Bet365

2016 stats 

Month Bets Wins S/R P&L ROI aug 359 68 18.94% 69.25 19.29% sep 605 135 22.31% 29.70 4.91% oct 629 154 24.48% 56.95 9.05% nov 468 115 24.57% 74.87 16.00% dec 479 120 25.05% 25.40 5.30%   2540 592 23.31% 256.17 10.09%

245 Towcester
Dontminddboys 9/4 bet 365
Been in great form this season and ran another cracking race last time out to be second here. He has been favourite in five of his last six starts and has won twice in his last four so he's pretty solid. He seems to like it around here which is a plus and the yard are in decent nick.

Had 0.50pt E/W On Each and 0.25 Pt C/F/C
A Sure Welcome 6/1 Loss -1.00
It Must Be Faith   9/1 Won 
Major Crispies 11/1 2nd
CSF Paid £101.10
Brilliant mate

Rainbow Rebel    18.10 Newcastle

Rainbow Rebel    18.10 Newcastle

Just altered a few bugs in my program so it doesn't move the horse up a position if another is a NR ( ie stall 2 to stall 1 if stall 1 is a nr etc) and now puts the horses name rather than the draw number.
was going to do all races and put them up but the missus dragged me off to Asda (Oh Joy of Joys ) before I had time to do most of the card with relevent stats
Draw IV's combined with Weight IV's for the 2.25

 
The seven inside the Red box are the worst rated using the Pareto principle and are usually disgarded
The 3 in the Blue box should win around the average expected for weight and draw
The rest obviously win above average
Personally Id go for Right Action ew if I were to have a bet.
Lets see how it pans out
 

Had Sensulano on my tracker for a while needs step up in trip but pace and ground could bring his stamina in to play here