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Bubbles180

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Posts posted by Bubbles180

    Racing Chat - Thursday April 5th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by Bubbles180

    Hi guys just a short post from me today about backing the slections early for the best price, most of the time using the selections is best using BOG as some do drift and if you get the early price and SP is lower then your better off (Obviously) It also helps if that race has a NR as the netter price ensures a better profit tha at SP (again Obvious).

    Many people here seem to struggle to get the prices advised, this in my opinion is down to the time frame between the selctions going live and when people see them and act on them, I personally ensure all my selections for the following days racing are made by no later than 6pm the night before (depending on need that day) I generally look at the next days racing during the day as I am watching racing that day, this gives me more time to get the best selections for racing the following day, I generally start looking at the PL Selections from around 5pm until all races have been posted, Ithen start doing my filters to obtain my selections for the following day, as an example last night Looking through the selections when they were posted Last night (around 5pm) a selection that I would not normally back via PL Tips alone but the selection was other systems and on my tracker as a horse to watch for, given this I made it a selection for today, placed my bets (as I normally do the night before) for all of todays selctions.

    As a note the horse in connection is Dancing Brave Bear 17.45 Chelmsford when I placed my bet it was 13/8 even though PL had it priced at 7/4 I noticed it had already been backed so I still went with it has it covered alot of my criteria on selections, just checking the betting this morning the Selection is now priced at 1/2 and has been backed all values down to this and I noticed on the exchanges it was trading at 1.46 even lower than Bookies so it will I assume come down even more by race time, I just saying this as a point that it is best if following the PL tips to try to look for the tips as they are published by taking an hour or so to keep an eye on the site could and will gain you a significant profit in the future, So if you can look at how you make yoyr selections now and see if their is a way of altering your times or selection process to enable you to obtain the best prices possible, as like most I do have certain criteria I follow and if I miss a price and the selection is not within my criteria price wise, I will leave the selection and not worry if it wins or loses (and trust me their are many I have left and gone on to win) you must all bet within your own criterias and not be swayed and if you miss a price and the selection wins Don't worry about it and move on, this is how many pro punters make their money by sticking to what they know and their criteria on selections and prices and never worrying about what might have been.

    HOPE YOU ALL HAVE A GOOD DAY EVEN THOUGH THE RACING IS PRETTY POOR TODAY :ok

    Sorry not as short as expected :loon

    Profitable rates of return

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Yes you are right about 95% do leave it in and blow it but that is just bad discipline, I strated with £2000 and was shown how to use 50% of your funds and always have a reserve bank of the other 50% and from any profit replace any used from the reserve and also add 25% of profit to the reserve until you have 5 times the bank in reserve which I know have this gives me plenty of leeway, I now have 3 banks doing this same system.

    Profitable rates of return

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Not wanting to get to involved in this to much but my view is like this

    My aim is for a ROI on Invested Capital not Stakes

    I am a firm believer that your yearly aim should be the ROI on Investmented Capital, as I treat my betting as a Buisness this is my main aim on returns, as I also Compound each month on my yearly banking system this gives me a greater ROI on my INITIAL INVESTMENT.

    For example 2017 stats where

    Yearly Starting Bank £100 Staking at 1%

    Year Profit £5,530.50

    ROI  5530.50%

    Actual Money Staked £123,351.58

    Yearly ROI on Staked Money 4.48%

    As you can see their is a huge difference in results based on Initial Investment or Staked Investment this is why I do all my results based on Initial Investment and Yearly P&L

    I also do a monthly Banking System (Flat Staking) were I have a Monthly Starting Bank of £1,000, the P&L on this is up and down obviously based on results but my yearly expectation for this is a ROI of 25%+ per year rather than a monthly ROI, if I have a Losing Month then I still Invest £1000 on the next month, I withdraw All Profit each month and then add to the bank from the profit if I have a losing month.

    Hope this helps and is understandable

     

    Latest Tables - April

    in NAP of the Day Competition

    Posted

    On 02/04/2018 at 6:45 PM, BillyHills said:

    April 2

    Great start to the comp for newcomer ken:clap

    Screen Shot 2018-04-02 at 18.42.06.pngScreen Shot 2018-04-02 at 18.42.19.png

    **Can I just say that anyone found using a second username will be removed from the competition immediately. It is against the rules to enter the comp twice.

     

    Hi Billy my runner yesterday was a NR did not do a replacement 

    Stats

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by Bubbles180

    2018 Stats to End March

    Month    Bets    Won    Lost    S/R    P&L    ROI

    Jan    345    83    262    24.06%    52.23     15.14%
    Feb    312    75    237    24.04%    55.58     17.81%
    Mar    354    67    287    18.93%    11.75     3.32%

    Stats

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    13 hours ago, evertorial said:

    Hi all. I've been recording my results now in following the pl tips and I do 4/1+ bets. I'm now around 40 points down in about 2 weeks. Makes very grim reading. Has it simply just been a bad run or can I expect more of the same?

    I understand that the largest draw down is said to be around 65 points but 40 points already since I've been recording is concerning. 

    I am taking all odds as advised on the tips page as well as getting best odds guaranteed with each bet. 

    Are we simply going through a very rough patch at the moment? 

    I have been doing the tips before this from the start of Feb and I'm pretty sure no profit was made before I started recording. If it was then it was minimal 

    I understand @evertorial your comments but may I ask how long have you been following the system, if it has only been the last 2 weeks then unfortunately you started at the wrong time, for example as you say the last 2 weeks have seen a loss of 40 points, in fact in the last week we lost 50+ points again very frustrating for those just joining, BUT at the start of the month we were 51.85 points in profit up to 8th March, the truth is at the end of March we still made a profit of 11.75 points.

    Wolves Draw & Dist IV's

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    3 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:

    2.20 Wolves

    image.png.581bf583158df22879c0ca1a952768ca.png

     

    4 horses whose draw averages above normal 1pt each

    3 horses whose draw win around the average mark 1/2 pt each

    Total 5.5 or 9/2

    Thats an estimated fair price I would want for the above average drawn horses (estimated from past trials of over thousands of races)

    Taken as a whole the betting market is a good indicator of a horses chance of winning (minus the bookies vig) so lets combine with the betting forcast

    Awesome Allen 15/8 Fav may well win but with at least 2 strong contenders underpriced (imo)

    A Sure Welcome 13/2 fair price and 2nd fav

    It Must Be Faith   7/1 fair price and 3rd fav

    Major Crispies 14/1 not fancied

    Possible dutch win bet on A Sure Welcome & It Must Be Faith or an ew bet on 1 of the 2

     

     

    Had 0.50pt E/W On Each and 0.25 Pt C/F/C

    A Sure Welcome 6/1 Loss -1.00

    It Must Be Faith   9/1 Won 

    Major Crispies 11/1 2nd

    CSF Paid £101.10

    Brilliant mate

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