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Baracca

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Posts posted by Baracca

    Racing Chat - Monday June 11th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    On 10/06/2018 at 3:31 PM, richard-westwood said:

    New rule ....if top 3 are at least 10pts clear of 4th horse it' forecast time 

    840 pont

    The amber fort.   255

    Major krispies.  251

    Highly sprung.   250 

    These 3 are 11 pts clear of rest so I'll try win on top 2 and forecasts .

    The amber fort. 5pt win 11/2 wh

    Major krispies5pts win 6/1 lads 

    6x 1pt rev forecast 

    Great job RW!!!! I love your picks!!!!!!! Thank u!!!

    Racing Chat - Wednesday June 6th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    On 05/06/2018 at 2:04 PM, BillyHills said:

    350 Wolves

    Domitilla 13/8 PP

    I like the Marco Botti trained 4yo here, she ran at Newbury on debut last year (4th of 9) and then switched to the AW. She finished second at Kempton and Chelmsford before winning on her handicap debut at Lingfield off a mark of 74. That was a Class 3 race and she now goes to her fourth different AW track with 7lbs more to shoulder in a lower grade. I think this is a good bit of placing and can take this before going back up in class.

    Great day!!!!!!! Treble + NAP!!!!!!!

     

    Racing Chat - Tuesday June 5th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    7 hours ago, BillyHills said:

    @DanV89 regarding the 735 Southwell:

    Here are my thoughts and ratings on the race

    Screen Shot 2018-06-05 at 11.44.27.png

    As you can see by my ratings the favourite's last 5 hurdles runs are pretty consistent all bar one outing. Four of those runs were in Ireland in big fields and has since moved to Dan Skelton and had a wind op. He looks to have been reassessed when he moved from Ireland as most do and was put up 5lbs.
    Add to the fact Skelton improved them early on after a move and the wind op it was hardly surprising he put in a decent run at Kempton.

    The horse has been tried in blinkers, cheek pieces and now a tongue-tie. He has been backed into favouritism on a third of all of his starts over both codes and is obviously a right old monkey.

    I think he will try and throw the race away if he can or should i say refuse to go and win it. Maybe they should go out and make it and be ultra positive.

    Of the others I see Olly Murphy has a Willie Mullins cast off, not good enough to stay in the yard and has little ability by the looks of it. I always say a horse has to achieve a rating of 90 on my ratings to be considered to win a maiden so Leapt has to be the one to bet EW as he reached 88 on his first run and could easily improve here.

    I see your arguments for Riviere Argentee but guessing marks from the flat is a dangerous game.

    Weightfordave looks to have found a really good opportunity from what I can see and is the most likely winner. Would I back it at 4/6......Not for me and would probably back Leapt EW at around 6/1.

    Good fun though:ok

    Leapt wins @ 6/1. Great!!! Thank u!!!

    Kentucky Derby - May 5th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    On 04/05/2018 at 6:48 AM, richard-westwood said:

    Just been discussing this race with my friends over breakfast ....

    Draws 

    1.   

    2

    3.  

    4 244

    5.252

    6 250

    7 260

    8 244

    Dont want to be drawn bottom 3 rails so discarded ....strongest contenders bottom 8 are audible (5)....good magic (6)

    ..and justify (7)......justify is by far the best horse in the race on ratings and draw .....but he has to overcome the appollo curse where no unraced 2yr old has won the derby ...61 have tried all failed ...gulp .....but given his huge statistical advantage it woukd seem folly to ignore him at a generous 9/2 ! ....not much separating the other 2 but audible is in the box 5 which statistically is very cushy....quite a few winners have been drawn 5 so as his rating is slightly better than good magic and drawn 5 audiblexat 7/1 looks value too

    Justify 10pts win 9/2 coral

    Audible 10pts win 7/1 willh

    Congrats R-W. I opted for Mendelsshon and Good Magic. Should have took your picks!!

    Ten Top Tracks To Follow - Flat Edition

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    On 4/25/2018 at 8:53 AM, BillyHills said:

    As with the Jumps we are going to track the progress of the PL Tips on the top 10 'flat' only tracks.

    All prices are with bet365 this time just avoid any confusion. £10 win or £5 EW singles.

    The tracks will be monitored every couple of months to see if any are performing better than the ones we are using.

     

    BH, what are your expectations for the flat tracks thread? Better profit than the jump tracks thread? Sry to ask this, but i dont know much about horse racing, but i have been following your tips and others for a couple of months. I dont know if its easier to choose the horses in a flat track or jump track, or if doesnt have difference!

    Stats

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    On 22/04/2018 at 7:12 AM, Bubbles180 said:

    Hi guys me again with some more stats for you

    As you know I run a stats sheet for the PL Naps by @BillyHills and the PL Trebles (as well as Singles & Doubles in the PL Trebles) Ihave now done a Stat for adding all 4 selections together as a 4 timer, 1 bet per day only if theie are 4 different selections and the stats come out like this

    237.00    Total Staked
    248.44    Flat Profit

    104.83%    ROI

    237    Runners

    17    Winners

    220    Lost

    7.17%    Strike Rate

    Their are long losing runs on this but the payout on a 4 timer is high the avg odds are 45/1

    2017    Aug          Sep      Oct        Nov      Dec    2018  Jan        Feb      Mar

               127.99    -6.25    -31.00    15.56    74.36           21.23    -12.20    44.75

    Thanks for sharing this information Bubbles. I will start to make the 4-fold.

    SPREADSHEETS

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    48 minutes ago, Snoopdog said:

    Baracca,  I recall hearing in the early days of PL tips that 3 doubles was working better than 1 treble. I don't know about recently. It should impove the strike rate (if not ROI) which keeps up interest. I'm interested to know myself as I was going to advise this as an automatic system bet for the other half to get into this game.

    Thank u for the information Snoopdog. I’m thinking about doing the doubles daily, but i’m not sure about it yet. I will check the stats  in the end of April and decide it to do or not to do!

    SPREADSHEETS

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    On 13/04/2018 at 6:53 PM, Bubbles180 said:

    Spreadsheet no longer available please DO NOT ASK FOR ACCESS

    Hi Bubbles180, 

    Can u help me, if u have the stats? Could u please tell me if is profitable to use the TREBLE tips to make DOUBLE bets?

    Punters Lounge Tips

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Hi everyone, im new here and i started to bet using your picks 3 days ago. Im from Brasil, so its not easy to open accounts and put money in lots of betting sites, so i use bet365 only. I read Nenad posts and i am really affraid of being limited when i have some profit. I am betting R$5 each single bet and 2,5 for e/w. Do u really think they might limit my account if i keep with this stakes and keep getting profit?

    Thanks for this tips. 

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