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Showing content with the highest reputation on 04/05/2023 in all areas

  1. The trigger for having the vote is that there will no longer be any bookies offering BOG the night before. The thing that is not realistic is the ability to take a price before BOG is available with any bookies (whether the night before or first thing in the morning) but still have BOG apply to the selection. As a fun competition there is no obligation for the rules to be ultra-realistic but the issue has been raised to see what people think. With around 56% of the votes so far (if my quick tot up is correct) it looks like the status quo will prevail which is obviously fine. If that creates an edge that doesn't exist in real life (taking a price early but still getting BOG) then it's an edge that's available to everyone should they wish to try and exploit it. I favoured scrapping BOG from an authenticity perspective (not available to me with most firms) but there's a lot to be said for leaving things as they are if the majority of people prefer to retain BOG rather than ditch it altogether. So unless my #banthebog Twitter campaign gathers unexpected momentum it looks like it will be very much "as you were" but we've all had a bit of fun wagging our jaws and arguing the toss!
    5 points
  2. I suppose at the end of the day @MCLARKE saw a problem asked for feedback took his time to process that feedback and has laid out 4 options for people to vote on i assume whichever option has most support then that will stand, he can't do much more than that and anyone not happy about the decision should keep quiet thereafter because whichever option is supported will leave a good few still in disagreement but at least the majority of those who bothered to vote will be supported.
    4 points
  3. R.Beckett. 175,000€uros 250,000gns 2yo; dam a Listed winner ( R P R 106 ) likley type on paper and making her debut in a race lacking in depth. 6.05.Kemp. Wind in your Sails 7/1 3rd stk. 5.00 rtn 40.00 Good luck all.
    3 points
  4. The Equaliser

    DAILY LUCKY 15

    I'll join in with some longer-priced selections for a 10p win L15, just for a bit of fun. Placed with Betfred 3.00 Wolv Seagrave Fox 10/1 3.05 Leop La Dame Blanche 11/1 4.55 Nott Peaceful Night 7/1 5.05 win Pasvolsky 11/1 1 x 0.10 win L15 = 1.50 poss return 1825.10
    3 points
  5. Couple of Patents. 2.25. Wolv. My Boy Jack 6/1 unpl 3.35. Wolv. Farina 4/1 unpl 7.45. Kemp. Street Kid 13/2 stk.3.50 rtn 252.63. 3.40. Leop. Buckaroo 15/8 1st 4.25. Nott. Reflection Star 3/1 3rd 5.30. Kemp. Sapphire Seas 9/4 1st stk. 3.50 rtn. 40.67. Good luck all.
    3 points
  6. Work and more work at the moment so not much time for punting. Some stable switchers that maybe of interest today: Good luck to everyone today. Crosstitch 4.55 Nottingham 14/1 Peaceful Night 4.55 Nottingham 8/1 Blue Universe (IRE) 3.35 Wolverhampton 7/2 Entrancement (FR) 4.25 Nottingham 7/2 Puffin Bay 4.35 Wincanton 9/2 Wolf Of Oxshott 5.15 Wolverhampton 14/1 Island Star (IRE) 6.05 Kempton 7/1 Angels Voice (IRE) 4.55 Nottingham 14/1 Dancing Empress (IRE) 5.00 Kempton 8/1 Kodias Sangarius (IRE) 5.00 Kempton 4/1 Pepsiwithacap (IRE) 5.15 Wolverhampton 14/1 Sadiqaa (IRE) 5.22 Leopardstown 12/1
    3 points
  7. I'm sorry and i might be in the minority here, but i really don't see why all of a sudden, because one bookmaker amends their timing rules for BOG, why we are looking to make such a huge change to this competition. BOG is a part of betting, but if bookies decided to scrap it completely, then i can understand why it would need to be scrapped here, but it hasn't. Settling all bets at SP would, imo, be awful for this competition and unrealistic. I'm a strong believer in the saying "If it ain't broke, don't try and fix it!" so BOG should stay as is, or from 10am on the day, but it should not be scrapped from this comp while it is still available in the real world. The order that they are set out from 1-4 IS the order i would vote:- Option 1 (my vote) Option 2 (if the time thing is really that important would be my second vote)
    3 points
  8. Japanese experiment Sonoda 8.40 SPLENDIDE Each way Eleven runners here and 9 of them course and distance winners. This one has not won for some time but has a good draw and won here on April 7th last year. Thank you for your patience if you've had to suffer these selections. It is the only Japanese selection today.
    3 points
  9. It's a 4 mile chase not a 5 furlong sprint !
    3 points
  10. RT +£27 2nd RT +£61
    3 points
  11. I think I'm going to look at 2pts e/w on Scottie Scheffler but I did read a statistic that said no defending champion has won it since 2007... but he just looks in such good form right now that I think he's got a great shout. Tempted to put a few 1pt bets on the likes of Tony Finau, Rory McIlroy (surely he'll do it one year!), and Shane Lowry (just like the guy!). I'll also put a 0.5pt bet on Sandy Lyle as a purely romantic option.
    2 points
  12. Mrjol.

    DAILY LUCKY 15

    All lovers again, when I try to pick for a place they come nowhere and when I pick to win they get a place 🤪 Bet 8.... £3.00....------‐.... £9.69
    2 points
  13. Blue Universe a winner at 4.7, Puffin Bay well backed and won at 4.4 and Island Star beats an odds on fav and wins at 4.81, Peaceful Night placed at 3.5, Kodiac Sangarius placed at 3.1, Wolf Of Oxshott placed at 5.1 and Pepsiwithacap in the same race placed at 5.82
    2 points
  14. 3 for me That keeps skillset of identifying prices and if it drifts keeps the onus on the poster. Makes life marginally easier for Clarky. Fairest for everyone , if you think you've nicked a price do you really deserve to have that " error " rectified with a drifter. As always no complaints from me whatever the decision
    2 points
  15. Tough one to call tonight for West Ham. They haven't lost at home in 2023. They've also scored in every one of those home fixtures. Newcastle look to have a good away record but when you look at who they've beaten, they are all bottom 6 teams. Last 2 fixtures have ended 1-1 and I fancy a similar kind of outcome. I was tempted with going BTTS and X to win but I couldn't decide which team was going to win. Perhaps an edge to Newcastle. However the bet for me is BTTS 5.5pts BTTS (West Ham vs Newcastle) 10/11 bet365
    2 points
  16. I hope "Bet365 scrapping BOG" is not what you mean and that you're talking about not offering BOG the day before?? If so, this now means no bookie offers it so, why are we in the Naps comp? Well, not that it effects me but, i thought this was still in place for all the members that are unable to post on the day because of work commitments. (or other reasons) Would seem a bit harsh on them imo. Other than that, what "current rules" do you think are unrealistic? It wasn't too long ago that you amended them. (Mclarke- No matter how i write or however many times i alter what i write, it always seems to come across that i'm being arguementative! I hope you know that this is not the case.)
    2 points
  17. 1.40 Wincanton Shirocco's Dream Win The bottom weight of three and the outsider. Has met and beaten Empressive lady over hurdles. Gets a stone from both of these and maybe that Brendan Powell can use the weight to get something out of this.
    2 points
  18. Win 1415 claim aodha Wol 1500 Seagrave fox
    2 points
  19. I think the significance of BET365 scrapping BOG is that generally they are the first to publish prices, generally they offer the best prices and they are the only bookmaker to offer BOG the night before. I agree with the saying "if it ain't broke don't fix it" but I am concerned that maintaining the current rules could mean that the competition becomes unrealistic. Personally I am surprised that so many people bet with the established bookmakers rather than betting on the exchanges, I think this is generally where the real value lies.
    2 points
  20. L15 2.25 Wolv My Boy Jack 9/2 2.40 Nott Bauuhina Rhapsody 7/2 4.45 Wolv Glorious Charmer 10/3 5.05 Win Lazy Sunday 4/1 1 x 0.20 L15 = 3 pts poss ret 228.65 Back later with the win bets 3.15 Nott Woodstock 2 pts win at 5/1 4.55 Nott Peaceful Night 0.98 win at 11 3.05 Leop La Dame Blanche 1 pt ew at 10/1 5p 4.45 Wolv Glorious Charmer 2 pts win at 7/2 5.05 Win Lazy Sunday 2 pts win at 5.8 = Total stakes 13.5 (incl L15 on Daily L15)
    2 points
  21. @1945harryreturns to the top with 6/1 Thirsk winner Teresa Grace. @Zidane123moves to 2nd with Northbound at 12/1
    2 points
  22. fd1972uk

    PGA Masters

    Used up a host of free bets so any of the top guns bring me money. My main fancy although not my best outcome moneywise is Speith, I've also done him 1st round leader, along with small free bets on kitayama, poston, z Johnson and na for 1st round leaders. Ew on theegala, Kim, hoge, homa, hovland.
    2 points
  23. 8:30 Southwell Northbound - 13 - Bet365
    2 points
  24. I think Villa look a good price to win again tonight. I know that Chelsea dominated against them but bottom line is, if you don't score then you can't deserve to win and I thought Villa took their chances really well.Leicester continue to look awful and have now lost 5 of their last 6 matches. They're sightly better at home with 1 win and a draw from their last 4 at home but Villas away record is pretty impressive. Only Man City and Arsenal are above them in form away for the last 8 matches with 5 wins from those 8 and only 2 defeats. One of those being Man City. Leicester beat Villa 4-2 when Villa were at home but I'm going with Villa to get some revenge tonight on that Leicester form. 4pts Villa to beat Leicester 7/4 1pt treble tonight - Villa, Brighton & Leeds 13/2 paddypower
    2 points
  25. A first for Punters Lounge, a Golf competition which i'm planning to run for each major (if all goes well) starting with The Masters, this Thursday. I'm thinking of trying it with a DraftKings style format. So whilst I will draw up some rules in more depth this is how it would work. You get $50k salary and you need to pick 6 players. Here is the salary for each player : Scoring points as follows : Per Hole Scoring Double Eagle or Better +16pts Eagle +11pts Birdie +5.75pts Par +1.5pts Bogey -1.8pts Double Bogey -3.9pts Worse than double bogey -3.9pts Streak of 3 birdies or better +5pts Bogey free round +5pts Hole in one +5pts Final Postition Scoring 1st +30pts 2nd +20pts 3rd +18pts 4th +16pts 5th +14pts 6th +12pts 7th +10pts 8th +9pts 9th +8pts 10th +7pts 11th-15th +6pts 16th-20th +5pts 21st-25th +4pts 26th-30th +3pts Prize £60 (winner takes all) £10 each day (highest scoring day points) which ofcourse does not include positioning pts. Purely eagle,par,birdie etc link for your selections -
    2 points
  26. @1945harrysets the early pace with 10/1 Doncaster winner Harswell Duke
    1 point
  27. Patent. 2.00. Weth. Butch 2/1 2nd 5.25. Weth. Booster Boss 9/4 unpl 4.45. Here. Accidental Legend 9/2 unpl stk 3.50 rtn.54.75. Good luck all.
    1 point
  28. 2. BOG available on selections posted after 10am on the day of the race, selections posted before this time will be settled at the price quoted Nope option 2 above states that you will get BOG after 10am but posters can still enter a price the night before and get settled at that price quoted i.e. if you post the night before and you select the price for example 20/1 -then you will get paid at 20/1 regardless if drifts or not. - only selections after 10am qualify for BOG or SP. option 5 (not officially) states that you can select a horse the night before but not the price - i.e. you will get settled at BOG or SP depending on what is placed in the rules by you. - in other words no early prices allowed.
    1 point
  29. 325 wincanton boom boom 6-5 paddy power
    1 point
  30. Is this not option 2 ?
    1 point
  31. 1 point
  32. Very true and a good way to look at it. Also goes to show - never cash out!
    1 point
  33. Alfie sharp 4.00 ew
    1 point
  34. ✅ Back Man United @1,74 / +£2,45 💰 New Bank : £407,81
    1 point
  35. abraaj 3.50'ew conquilt 350 win
    1 point
  36. Nottingham 2.40 MILITARY TYCOON each way Nottingham. very decent staying on debut at Newcastle and third to a decent horse. Given a big heads up by Jim Crowley who reckons this will be a decent type in time.
    1 point
  37. So the one this Saturday is around 3pm? that's very unique. I'll stick it on when the football is on and give it a watch
    1 point
  38. Alexandrova vs. Putintseva @ 1.68 Alexandrova made the semis in Charleston last year and apparently she is in a good run... Putintseva, I saw her playing against Svitolina, who was clearly out of shape after all these months of inactivity, I'm not sure those dropshots will work against such an aggressive opponent, and I also expect Alexandrova to break her serve a lot. If the russian will manage to limit the UE she can make it in my opinion
    1 point
  39. Wolverhampton 15.35 RAZONI £20 @6/5 BetVictor
    1 point
  40. Wol 225 Suzi,s Connoisseur 12/1 ewx 4pl bet365 £10 ew.
    1 point
  41. Thirsk 3.15 Wadacre Inca 14/1ew 4pl £5 ew W Hill----lost 12/1 Thirsk 5.45 Rockley Point 12/1ew 5pl £5 ew W Hill----lost 12/1 Total -£20
    1 point
  42. Winc 1.40 - Shirocco's Dream - £20 win at 6/4 bog ladbrokes
    1 point
  43. Mrjol.

    DAILY LUCKY 15

    All lovers today, always tomorrow as they say. Bet 7... £3.00... --------...... +12.69
    1 point
  44. Better than a late goal that goes against you!!
    1 point
  45. Trimble89

    PGA Masters

    My darts for the weekend 2pts e/w Rory 7/1 1pt e/w Tony Finau 22/1 1pt e/w Will Zalatoris 0.5pts e/w Im 40/1 0.5pts ee/w M-Lee 66/1
    1 point
  46. Fader

    PGA Masters

    My selections for The Masters. I already tipped Homa up a while ago at 66/1 hence the price. 2pts e/w C.Smith to win Masters 22/1 bet365 -------------------------------------------------- 1.5pts e/w Homa to win Masters 66/1 bet365 1.5pts e/w Im to win Masters 35/1 bet365 1.5pts e/w Matsuyama to win Masters 40/1 bet365 ------------------------------------------------------ 1pt e/w Conners to win Masters 45/1 bet365 1pt e/w Min Woo Lee to win Masters 55/1 bet365
    1 point
  47. Big question! Can you find a good reason why your selection method should be profitable at some tracks and not others? I'd want to be convinced it wasn't just random before I changed the approach, in case I ended up just betting at the profitable tracks in time for regression to the mean to kick in (more winners at the "bad" tracks and more losers at the "good" ones). I think sometimes you have a sample size that is just about big enough to be meaningful overall but when you start breaking it down into smaller categories you end up observing things that are statistically insignificant. I've never done it but I always wonder if my data might tell me that players with an odd number of letters in their name were more profitable than those with an even number, or short names v long names, but I'd obviously assume that was an anomaly. When you look at categories that could be relevant (like courses for instance) it's harder to tell whether you should trust what the stats are telling you.
    1 point
  48. Ah my favourite race of the year, haven't had a single bet since last year. My trends scoring was a bit of a failure last year, so it's had a revamp. 11 of the biggest trends, where more than half the winners met the trend. If a runner meets the trend, the get the score for how many past winners also met the trend, if a selection doesn't meet the trend, it gets the score for how many past winners also didn't. The maximum score was 278 - I can see why the favourite is such! This is the current first 40: EDIT - UPDATED 11/04/23 There's some big prices near the top of this list, so not sure how accurate it's going to be TOTAL MAXIMUM POSSIBLE 278 Corach Rambler (IRE) 9 10-5 Lucinda Russell 278 Back On The Lash 9 9-13 Martin Keighley 266 Francky du Berlais (FR) 10 10-0 Peter Bowen 266 Born By The Sea (IRE) 9 9-10 John Gilligan IRE 264 Cloudy Glen (IRE) 10 10-4 Venetia Williams 264 Escaria Ten (FR) 9 10-10 Gordon Elliott IRE 256 Eva's Oskar (IRE) 9 10-1 S Tim Vaughan 254 Velvet Elvis (IRE) 7 10-6 Thomas Gibney IRE 254 Longhouse Poet (IRE) 9 11-0 Martin Brassil IRE 251 Any Second Now (IRE) 11 11-12 Ted Walsh IRE 249 Fury Road (IRE) 9 11-6 Gordon Elliott IRE 244 Our Power (IRE) 8 10-0 Sam Thomas 244 The Big Breakaway (IRE) 8 10-10 Joe Tizzard 244 Diol Ker (FR) 9 10-8 Noel Meade IRE 242 Minella Trump (IRE) 9 10-6 Donald McCain 241 Noble Yeats (IRE) 8 11-11 Emmet Mullins IRE 241 Hill Sixteen 10 10-2 Sandy Thomson 236 Le Milos 8 10-11 Dan Skelton 236 Lifetime Ambition (IRE) 8 11-3 Jessica Harrington IRE 234 Roi Mage (FR) 11 10-8 Patrick Griffin IRE 234 Carefully Selected (IRE) 11 11-1 Willie Mullins IRE 232 Dunboyne (IRE) 8 10-0 Gordon Elliott IRE 231 Ain't That A Shame (IRE) 9 10-5 Henry de Bromhead IRE 231 Gabbys Cross (IRE) 8 10-2 Henry de Bromhead IRE 231 Mr Incredible (IRE) 7 10-4 Willie Mullins IRE 231 Sam Brown 11 11-4 Anthony Honeyball 230 Gaillard du Mesnil (FR) 7 11-0 Willie Mullins IRE 229 Galvin (IRE) 9 11-11 Gordon Elliott IRE 228 Mister Coffey (FR) 8 10-4 Nicky Henderson 226 A Wave of The Sea (IRE) 7 10-6 Joseph O'Brien IRE 224 Delta Work (FR) 10 11-4 Gordon Elliott IRE 223 Fortescue 9 9-13 Henry Daly 222 Enjoy d'Allen (FR) 9 10-5 Ciaran Murphy IRE 219 Coko Beach (FR) 8 11-0 Gordon Elliott IRE 212 Vanillier (FR) 8 10-6 Gavin Cromwell IRE 209 Darasso (FR) 10 10-13 Joseph O'Brien IRE 203 Recite A Prayer (IRE) 8 10-1 Willie Mullins IRE 203 The Big Dog (IRE) 10 11-5 Peter Fahey IRE 200 Cape Gentleman (IRE) 7 10-8 John Hanlon IRE 187 Capodanno (FR) 7 11-5 Willie Mullins IRE 185
    1 point
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