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Showing content with the highest reputation on 03/28/2023 in all areas

  1. MCLARKE

    BEST ODDS GUARANTEED

    I don't want to rush this as it is a big change so I will leave the rules as they are for the April competition. We can then consider all the options and perhaps, as was suggested, have a vote to decide which one we go with.
    5 points
  2. 4 points
  3. Tisitsipas vs. Kachanov @1.86 Tsitsipas not in a good shape lately, hence the odds… but he is 6-1 in previous matches against Kachanov, with 4-0 on hard courts, that should give him good chances to take this one. Based on the form, one should back Sonego today, who played really well against Tiafoe and faces now Cerundolo, who defeated an unrecognisable FAA. Sonego is not the most reliable player and I don’t know how he matches with Cerundolo, so probably I’ll pass
    4 points
  4. 5.30 Wolverhampton Dodgy Bob 25/1 Bet365 EW
    4 points
  5. Fader

    Tour Championship

    I'll also add this bet tomorrow. Murphy hit a 143 in his defeat against Cahill last week. He hit a 140 in the previous round and breaks of 141 and 145 in the final of the Players. He has already hit a 147 this season in the win over Daniel Wells at the Welsh Open. In which he also hit a 145. This was only a month ago. Milkins also despite his recent form being perhaps low par has also hit a 147 this season in the QF of the German Masters against Wakelin. He has also hit a 146 this season. So both players have hit a 147. Both are wide open players who attack and score well. 22/1. I'll have a half point on that. 0.5pts 147 in the match 22/1 bet365
    3 points
  6. adamross

    Naps Tuesday 28 march

    1 pt win Eyed 16/1 Bet365 Huntingdon 3.30
    3 points
  7. NH selection Huntingdon 2.00 QOYA
    3 points
  8. 6.00 Wolverhampton tio mio 25/1 £10 e/w bet365
    3 points
  9. LEE-GRAYS

    DAILY LUCKY 15

    Day 10 of 10 bank £28 so £2 down so will go out with bang then carry on with what’s left ???
    3 points
  10. Fader

    Tour Championship

    Second day at the Tour Championship and it's Ali Carter taking on Kyren Wilson to find out who will be playing Ding in the Semi Finals. Wilson has beaten Carter in the last couple of matches now. He has beaten him over shorter formats, which really is the majority format with Snooker. You don't really see too much of the longer format now and Carter most certainly doesn't play a great deal of the 'best of 10s' and you'd have to give the nod to Kyren in terms of his experience on both the one table format aswell as the 'best of 21' structure. Carters had some great form recently and won the German Masters but we're being critical, I'm not sure he beats the best players to a high degree. When he played in the Euro Masters he got to the Semi-Finals and actually went out to Kyren Wilson. To get there he has beaten Wu Yize, Grace, Bingham, Cahill and Reanne Evans. He does beat players that he's supposed to but unless it's a best of 7 I just feel like he is vulernable to this longer format and I think Kyren wins. Even the German Masters win for Carter. He beat Carrington, Robbie Williams, handed a walkover and then beat Heathcote, Junxu and Milkins. Only to get Tom Ford in a final. You couldn't ask for a nicer route. I'm going to give both players to hit 2+ centuries a go in this mach also. I do think we'll see atleast 16-17 frames and the bet although the bet i'd really like is Wilson to win and hit 2+ centuries, I've yet to see it so at 9/2 (in my mind) I'm betting on Carter to hit a couple, too. One thing Carter is doing well is score heavily when he's in. 4pts K.Wilson (-1.5 frame handicap) to beat A.Carter evens bet365 2pts Both players 2+ centuries 9/2 skybet
    3 points
  11. Huntingdon 1.30 AIKENBREAKINHEART Each way Up just 2lbs for a decent win last time where he was 6.5 lengths clear of the second and a further 40+ clear of the other finisher. Looks well treated compared to the other winners higher up the weights. Huntingdon 2 pm Juvenile hurdle Greyval Win Even with a penalty hard to oppose after ready win latest, third in that race won a decent valuable race up north on Friday. Long odds on, but take the hit or put in a double with the match bet. Hexham 2.15 Grove Road To win by 10+ lengths @ evens. Most recent form of rival well dick, Well Dick was beaten 66 lengths in last place, but tellingly 58 lengths behind the (fourth) horse in front. The three horses behind were all pulled up. Grove Road beat Mr Vango narrowly but was clear of the rest and even giving weight away looks hard to beat. Mr Vango ran unplaced in listed class next time. Well Dick is 1/1 for Brian Hughes but does not look good enough here, given that the form of his narrow maiden hurdle win over bold soldier was not franked when bold soldier was beaten a distance in a handicap next time out. Unless Brian Hughes can conjure up some magic today then Well Dick is aptly named. The Danger with these distance bets is you are trying to improve the skinny odds on a likely winner, while the jockeys only objective is win doing enough. I found that to my cost at Cheltenham when Nico De Boinville was too busy milking applause to push constitution Hill out to win by ten lengths at Cheltenham. I was one of many thousands who missed out there by one length and Nico duly apologised live on air after the race. So while I like the challenge of these races, keep stakes small. If you go to a racecourse there is no harm in asking the jockey about the winning distance! Today's Change In Trainer List 5:00W Wolf Of Kingstreet 5:30W Tanseeq 5:30W Wooders Dream 8:00W Beleaguerment Not a comprehensive list and flat only. But it yielded two winners and two placed horses yesterday. There are lots of second and third time runners. An interesting race at 8pm with a lot of contenders. Hugh has gone for too funky which will take a huge chunk out of the market. I don't normally play until just before the race but there is a massively strong alternative in BILLIAN in my opinion. Original rating 80. Hasn't won since a maiden but placed and gone desperately close last four runs in handicaps. Drops in class and rated just 50 now and Kevin Stott rides. Stott is the form jockey here with a big win in Ireland at the weekend and another for George Boughey last night, and he'll like nothing better than serving it up to Oisin Murphy if he can.Only ride of the day. With too funky going to be widely over bet now and bookies pocketing a massive dividend on a horse thanks to a tipsters influence, I still think it is worth waiting to see how the market develops, especially to see which horses drop out if any. Because physics can also play a large part in the outcome of the race due to the draw and weights (if anyone is carrying a penalty.) The other runner of interest is off the newcomer's list. BELEAUGERMENT with Oisin Orr on board won around this time last year at dundalk and again in October. Obviously with limited all weather opportunities in Ireland, drops from handicaps into this grade on debut for new yard. That is another reason why it'll pay to watch how the make up and fabric of the race and market unfolds.
    3 points
  12. It’s tricky. A 25% profit boost is a decent offer but here we’re only allowed to use it on a specified match and in a market where we have to combine 3 components. Are we still best siding with the favourite if 365 offer the worst price of any bookie but are standout about the underdog? Should we be seeing which team is priced closest to the exchange price and siding with them? I’m confident I could show a profit if I could use the boost on any market in any match, probably on any market in a specified match (as you say, find something as close to fair as possible). The 3-leg betbulider aspect definitely makes it more of a challenge.
    2 points
  13. Fader

    Tour Championship

    Was a dire 2nd session. No centuries but a 99 for K.Wilson and 92 for Carter. Ended 1 century a piece but atleast the handicap bet came in I suppose.
    2 points
  14. Odds on selection Huntingdon 2.00 GREYVAL 3/10
    2 points
  15. Hexham 3.15 BENITO £20 win BSP
    2 points
  16. All this. However I will state right now - whatever is, is; and whatever will be, will be. I will continue to participate. Noted, and most considerate. But note, from the best of my underdtanding (nut not knowledge) that option 3 would actually be no less complex for MCLARKE as, currently, he has to note the times of every post and cross-refer to the chosen bookie and then compare to SP. Hard work, indeed! Never, never has truer word been spoken (not in jest).
    2 points
  17. Tonight's match is SCOTLAND v SPAIN SPAIN, BTTS and over 3 goals is 6/1
    2 points
  18. Mrjol.

    DAILY LUCKY 15

    Hunt 2.30 Master Malcolm 10/3 Hex 3.45 Howmuch 14/1 Wolv 5.0 Looe P Looe 2/1 Wolv 6.0 Hashtagmetoo 7/2 20p Win Lucky 15 Bet365
    2 points
  19. Wolverhampton. 5.00. Aurophobia 9/2 coral win Good luck all.
    2 points
  20. Double. 1.30. Hunt. Drop Him In 5/1 1st 6.00. Wolv. Hashtagmetoo 7/2 singles & double. Good luck all.
    2 points
  21. Just one place yesterday at 25/1 RT -£8-00 Todays Crazy Maisie Winner @ 25/1 Huntingdon 14:00 £10 EW
    2 points
  22. I think that might have been based on a misunderstanding of what was being proposed, I’m not sure anyone was suggesting not allowing posting the night before prior to that post. I think there are 3 options on the table in most people’s thoughts. Move to SP only (post when you like) Just scrap bog, otherwise as you are (early prices can still be taken) Retain bog but only for prices taken from a certain time on the day of racing I favour 2 with 1 the clear next best. Option 3 just complicates things for the guy running the competition, having to differentiate between selections that do and don’t qualify for bog.
    2 points
  23. 4.00 wincanton Universal secret 10/1 e/w bet365
    2 points
  24. Kempton. 7.30. Vafortino 10/1 3rd 6.30. Mccauley's Tavern 2/1 unpl singles & double. Market Rasen. 3.45. Broadway Boy 3/1 4.20. Awesome Foursome 5/1 singles & double. Good luck all.
    1 point
  25. Another good day led by @Craig bluenosewho moves to within 2 points of the leader with 40/1 Wolverhampton winner Dodgy Bob
    1 point
  26. Maybe the best way to approach it is to compare the bookie odds with the exchanges, as there'll probably be some occasions where higher odds at the bookies are quite close to those on the exchanges. It's got to be harder though to turn an -EV bet to start with - which most longer odds bets are at the bookies - into a +EV bet the further you are away from an +EV price to begin with.
    1 point
  27. Fader

    Tour Championship

    Tomorrows match is Murphy taking on Milkins. A good chance for Murphy to get some revenge over Milkins, I suppose after Milkins took the Welsh Open. I was happy for that result of course as I had Milkins but in general Murphy has been awesome for a while now. There isn't any value in backing him tomorrow and although it's tempting to take him on the handicap because Milkins looks to be on the decline with his form, I still think it's best to go with Murphy centuries. If we look at Murphy after that Welsh Open, he went and won the Players Championship. He won three 'best of 11' matches. He didn't score a century against Selby in that 6-3 win but Selby is a good tactical player and his game is pretty much made up of good defensive play. After that he beat Day 6-0 with 4 centuries and Kyren Wilson 6-2 and scored another 2 centuries. When he got to the final he beat Carter in a 'best of 19' final. Won 10-4 and hit 5 centuries. What's important here for me is that he scores well. We all know that but he scores well more often when he plays attacking players. Carter, Kyren Wilson, Day. He faces Milkins tomorrow. A player who is all out attack constantly and probably takes on too much for his own good. I don't think we can look too much on that final because it was a final and it was a bit scrappy. I think tomorrow we'll see a Milkins who goes for everything and with qualification already guaranteed for the World Championships, i think he'll see this event as a bonus for him. Anyway, I'm going on too much now. 2 bets for me on this one : I think we'll see atleast 3 centuries for Murphy tomorrow. the bet on 4 is just a bonus bet if he goes on a rampage in the first session. 4pts Murphy to hit 3+ centuries 11/4 skybet 2pts Murphy to hit 4+ centuries 17/2 skybet
    1 point
  28. I realise that. But at the same time it stands to reason that the closer the odds are to fair to begin with, the more value can be obtained with the boost. Unless I've got my wires crossed somewhere.
    1 point
  29. Double. 3.00. Hunt. Artic Saint 9/2 2nd 5.00. Wolv. Aurophobia 9/2 3rd singles & double stk. 6.00 rtn. 82.50. Good luck all.
    1 point
  30. Hopefully someone got on Billian as per my earlier post... "interesting race at 8pm with a lot of contenders. Hugh has gone for too funky which will take a huge chunk out of the market. I don't normally play until just before the race but there is a massively strong alternative in BILLIAN in my opinion. Original rating 80. Hasn't won since a maiden but placed and gone desperately close last four runs in handicaps. Drops in class and rated just 50 now and Kevin Stott rides. Stott is the form jockey here with a big win in Ireland at the weekend and another for George Boughey last night, and he'll like nothing better than serving it up to Oisin Murphy if he can.Only ride of the day. With too funky going to be widely over bet now and bookies pocketing a massive dividend on a horse thanks to a tipsters influence, I still think it is worth waiting to see how the market develops, especially to see which horses drop out if any. Because physics can also play a large part in the outcome of the race due to the draw and weights (if anyone is carrying a penalty.) "
    1 point
  31. Olmo not starting so I'll swap Joselu >1.5 shots at 7/4.
    1 point
  32. Great call on le chameron. ? Hexham 4.45 Bumper Winning distance Any runner Over 5.75 Lengths @ 13/8 There looks to be a lot of speed amongst the inexperienced runners here. Including swedish icon related to multiple winners and a Frankel runner which cost 130k as a yearling. Clovis island has experience and any of these in this small field to kick clear looks a possibility.
    1 point
  33. No good. didn't realise about the going preference 4.15 Hex Chameron 1 pt win at 7.2 ( I can't see Brian Hughes winning this; not yet at least)
    1 point
  34. Fader

    Tour Championship

    8 frames. All done until 7pm
    1 point
  35. 4.00 Hunt Ratoute Yutty 1 pt win at 6.2 (won the race last year, been given a chance by the handicapper)
    1 point
  36. Fader

    Tour Championship

    Nope. 6-2 now. I just don't see it. 1 century each. Hopefully both bets can come in and both hit another century tonight.
    1 point
  37. 1 point
  38. 1 point
  39. Spain win/both teams receive a card/Olmo >0.5 shots at 17/10 I'm not convinced Spain win this but it's no fun trying to hit minimum of evens with Spain double chance!
    1 point
  40. Standout bet after reading above - Hexham 3.15 Wewillgowithplanb 10/11 Might be best to wait for BOG
    1 point
  41. calva decoy

    French Racing ???

    A couple of small each ways on St Cloud's Heavy going card . 2.35 BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN 8/1 eway ( 2 ) bet365 4.20 STALLONE 15/2 eway bet365 ( 3 ) 3.10 Group 3 - IDEFIXE DU MOULIN ( no bet ) A.Murphy also runs one in same race .
    1 point
  42. Hunt 300 Tenfold 11/8 bet365 £20 win
    1 point
  43. So what if you're at work & you have no access to post between say 8-10am that means that the naps competition in null & void for some .
    1 point
  44. Trotter

    BEST ODDS GUARANTEED

    I would agree with this I do remember back when the Naps comp was SP only when I joined the forum ... it was very annoying if you'd plucked out a 10/1 shot and it got backed into 6/1 and won ....... surely looking for 'the value bet' is part of being a punter But I'd be OK with scrapping BOG ..... if you take a price then you should be happy with that price. If you're not happy with the price, look for a different bet If you think your selection might drift then opt for SP If we're getting to the point where BOG is dependant on which bookmaker and what time of day it's just getting too fiddly ...... just scrap it !
    1 point
  45. I would stick with the opening post that - A suggestion is that if the nap is chosen before 9am then BOG does not apply. If after 9am then BOG does apply.
    1 point
  46. I would go with @Wanderlust on this. sack bog altogether for the comp.
    1 point
  47. Tricky one. I hate to say this and trust me i do hate to say it but the only totally fair way i see is to use SP only like they do on the SL naps table. The reason i say this is because the way things are going, we might be back here next month if/when they do away with BOG altogether. I am open to other suggestions.
    1 point
  48. Hi @Goldenfleece123 and welcome to the Forum. Tahiyra looks a monster but Weld is not the type to bank on in bringing her over especially if the ground is good or faster with her two wins coming on good to soft and soft. Best juvenile filly I saw in Europe last year without a doubt but I couldn't back her for the 1000 until I know for certain she's coming over. John and Thady Gosden have a nice 3yo called Coppice which interests me as I know she's well thought of. Although Johnny G and his boy don't have a very good record in both guineas! The 2000 and from what I'm hearing Little Big Bear is the one to be with. 5/1 with William Hills looks far too big. Obviously he has to prove he stays but looked a monster last year. AOB's other runner Auguste Rodin looks one for longer distances and appeals as my Derby pick at the moment. Roll on the flat! Oh and I believe AOB is working a load of horses after racing at The Curragh today.
    1 point
  49. Brighton please. If only to break the impression that the thread is a queue for would be Eric Morecambe impersonators!
    1 point
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