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Just starting the thread off. I have 1 interesting runner for now, may be back (probably) later with at least 1 more. 2.10 Yar - Lofty - 20/1 EW ( Bet 365 1/5th 4 places ) - A rare flat runner for Laura Morgan (up and coming jumps trainer IMO), who has had a couple of jumps winers in the past fortnight. The FORM looks awful BUT .... it's only win from 27 starts was from a mark 23lbs higher. It has only been with the current trainer for a year or so, she can usually 'revive' them but this one seems to be taking a little longer. It has a 1st time Visor, and jockey Shane Kelly has his only ride of the day. It is NOT one for maximum stakes, but at 20/1 and 4 places, looks a fair Each Way bet.

Newmarket 1.50 A small but select field of five go to post for the group 3 Bahrain Trophy Stakes for three year olds only over a trip of 1m 5F. Favourite Masekela, trained by Andrew Balding was some 63 lengths ahead of his main rival here Walk Of Stars in the Epsom Derby in June and with the Derby form working out well (3rd Westover won Irish Derby in good style since and 5th Changingoftheguard winning the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot) looks the one to be on here. Godolphin’s Walk Of Stars was bitterly disappointing that day and has been gelded since and can no doubt do a fair bit better. The other form line here is the Queens Vase run at Royal Ascot when Freddie and Martyn Meade’s Zechariah was run down late on by the progressive Eldar Eldarov with Al Qareem and Green Team behind in 5th and 7th and looking held today. Both Masekela and Zechariah are rated the same officially but clear preference is for the Derby 4th to be ridden today by Andrea Atzeni. MASEKELA 2 points win @ 7/4 bet365 Newmarket 2.25 A fascinating two year old contest is up next with the group 2 July Stakes run over 6F which has attracted eight runners. We have two juvenile races from Royal Ascot pitted against each other with the Norfolk form represented by Aidan O’Brien’s Little Big Bear who kept on well to beat subsequent winner Rocket Rodney a neck and steps up a furlong here which really shouldn’t be a problem. The Coventry form is represented by runner up Persian Force who couldn’t quite get to the smart Bradsell going down by a length and a half but having four of these behind and seemingly held. He’s held in very high regard by his trainer Richard Hannon who has compared him to Canford Cliffs. Charlie Appleby saddles Mysterious Night an odds on novice stakes winner at Newbury but he needs to step up here (the runner up that day was very disappointing at Ffos Las on Tuesday evening) and preference is for the Coventry runner up Persian Force. PERSIAN FORCE 2 points win @ 7/4 William Hill Carlisle 2.45 The ITV cameras are also at Carlisle for this 6F class 4 fillies handicap which features a couple of un exposed three year old handicap debutants in William Haggas’s Razeyna and Iain Jardine’s Monica. It may pay to concentrate on this lightly raced pair with slight preference for the latter who made a good impression when winning over course and distance last month scooting home by five lengths with a subsequent winner back in third. Jardine’s Havana Gold filly may have got in lightly and is worth backing each way especially if able to secure a fourth additional place. MONICA 1 point each way @ 5/1William Hill 1/5th 1234 Newmarket 3.00 A competitive nineteen runner class 2 heritage handicap run over 6F for three year olds is next. Likely favourite is the William Haggas trained Khanjar who looked good when winning by three lengths from the re-opposing Azure Blue at Ripon last time. He should go well but is up 9lb and with no favourite winning this in the last ten years I’ll look elsewhere for some value. Le Beau Garçon is an interesting runner, trained in Yorkshire by Mick and David Easterby. Little went right for him last time at Musselburgh when slowly away and forced to race wide when finishing runner up to Sophie’s Star. He’s up 2lb for that fine effort and can be competitive here. Ingra Tor was very disappointing in the valuable 6F York three year old handicap last time but the stable could offer no explanation for that poor run afterwards so there has to be a question mark hanging over him now. Karl Burke’s Lethal Levi is a horse in form who was just touched off over course and distance last time and is another with each way claims along with many others including Burke’s other runner Aasser who’s visored for the first time and has the assistance of William Buick in the saddle. A tough contest but I’ll play small each way Le Beau Garçon with the additional places. LE BEAU GARCON 1 point each way @ 9/1 BetVictor 1/5th 12345 Newmarket 3.35 Yet another small field of only six go to post for the group 2 Princess Of Wales’s Stakes. Run over 1m 4F it may turn into a battle between the two Newmarket powerhouses of Charlie Appleby and John & Thady Gosden. The Godolphin runner is Yibir but can we fully trust him? Beaten favourite on his last three starts including when a 1/4 chance here at the Rowley course in April he certainly has the ability to win but I’m not interested at a short price and my money will be on the Gosden runner Mostahdaf. He appeared to relish the step up to this trip last time at Royal Ascot in first time cheek pieces when chasing home Broome in the Hardwicke with subsequent French flop Hurricane Lane back in third. He’s a solid horse who may just want it more than Yibir. The other four runners all have it to do on official ratings. MOSTAHDAF 2 points win @ 11/8 William Hill MOSTAHDAF / PERSIAN FORCE / MASAKELA 1 point win trixie

1 more for later, 8.50 Kemp - Good Humor - 7/1 EW - runs from 10lbs lower than he has won off. Still fairly lightly raced for 5 year old, his only win came here at Kempton (from 2 races at the track), so no excuse with the course (7f class 5 - this is 1 mile class 6). Trainer John Butler is in decent form and I would expect at least a place tonight.

Moneyback bet in Habanero Star.......ridden by you know who. Surely Holly.

Well ....6 races so far and if you count both runs (last 2 ) the winner has been in the top 3 in all the races so class does definitely count ....it might even become a rule later on that you only consider the top 3 or 4 ...Including last 2 runs ...when narrowing a race .....I guess its true ..class will out ....can't rate today but I'll look later at tomorrow's

Won. Returns £92. July + £15.

nibiru wins / looks an improved sort

Double. 8.35. Bath.MR Rumbalicious. 7/2.... unpl 8.50. Kemp. Adelisa. 7/2..... 1st singles & double. Good luck all.

For today I've got three more outright bets, a boosted treble and an acca. I can see all of the favourites winning today and the treble has three of them in it, whilst the acca has all four as its base. 10pts Nadal to win ATP Wimbledon @ 7.08 Betfair Exchange 15pts Kyrgios to win ATP Wimbledon @ 14.72 Betfair Exchange 25pts Halep to win WTA Wimbledon @ 2.92 Betfair Exchange --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 10pts Halep x Kyrgios x Nadal @ 2.99 365 10pts Halep x Kyrgios x Nadal x Rybakina x Djokovic x Jabeur @ 4.44 365

The Punters Lounge £150 added Poker League continues on this week for July, running for 4 weeks on Wednesday nights. The £150 added by PL is shared between the top 3 in the league at the end of the month. Games start at 8.10pm, with a 20min late registration period on top of this. All games are played in the PokerStars Home Games PL Poker Club. The format is a NLHE 3000 chip tourney in Legs 1 & 2 and a 5000 chip NLHE for final leg. Leg 3 is our PLO Leg with 5000 chips. > Leg 1 : Wednesday 6th July at 20.10 BST in the PL Poker Club Home Game - NLHE 3000 chips > Leg 2 : Wednesday 13th July - NLHE 3000 chips > Leg 3 : Wednesday 20th July - PLO 5000 chips > Leg 4 : Wednesday 27th July - NLHE 5000 chips - (double entrants in points formula)** Buy in is $5.50 per leg. Your top 3 scores of the 4 legs will count towards your league total. We will be using the usual PL poker league format, which will be updated in this thread. (The PokerStars own league scores will not be used.) Formula is -Log(position/Entrants)x100 To help boost numbers overall and in particular in the final leg we are continuing the system of doubling the number of entries used in the calculation in leg 4 (**so if 10 entries the formula will use 20 entrants). This will increase the number of points available in the final leg to make it more competitive. All members are welcome, however you must post in this thread if asked to let us know your forum username, otherwise your placings and scores cannot be included in the league. New players are always welcome to join in, so please spread the word and invite your friends to the forum so we can keep the weekly numbers up. £150 Added Value The £150 added will be split between the top 3 players of the league end, with £75 to the league champion, £45 to 2nd and £30 to 3rd. This will be payable via PayPal at the end of the league. Big thank you to Punters Lounge for the added funds. The league winner will also get Punters Lounge merchandise. Punters Lounge MerchandiseYou can now win unlimited Punters Lounge merchandise, even if you have won them before. It consists of our logo mug and pack of 10 pens. Unfortunately due to supplier shipping restrictions we may be unable to provide these to members who live outside of the UK. To join the PokerStars PL Home Games Club: club id = 744199 password = PLPokerClub We also have a PL Poker Club Facebook group where regular reminders are also posted. Please request to join. https://www.facebook.com/groups/524375907722928/ Good luck! League Table

Really good field for this event, which it rightly deserves, thanks to the co-alignment deal between the DP World Tour and PGA Tour. My 6 man squad are as follows, with prices from Bet365 as a reference: Aaron Rai 70/1 Justin Rose 70/1 Sam Burns 30/1 Tyrrell Hatton 50/1 Sebastian Soderberg 300/1 Cameron Smith 28/1 Best of luck to all.

OK I see. That seems very sensible.

Sijun, a group winner without dropping a frame. Three 3-0 wins and one to watch this season for a 7/2 winner.

2nd. Returns £28. July. + £25.67.

10/10 Bank @ £17.48

Cracking racing so time for a full test 225 newm Brave nation 8.7 class 67+ Persian force 9.2 class 133 Waiting all night 8.7 class 127 Little Big bear 8.7 class 118 Persian force is top on class and my rating so has to be the bet at 7/4 ....waiting all night looks overpriced ew at 18/1 ....should run well ....Time to test it in the big leagues !! Persian force 10pt win 2.82 Waiting all night 2pt ew 18/1

trailblazer 8 05 bath 1/5 pt win 20/1 nibiru 5 25 fairy 1/5 pt fairy 16/1

trailblazer 8 05 bath 1/5pt win 20/1 nibiru 5 25 fairy 1/5 pt win 16/1

LOST - very disappointing. Kicking myself now for not putting up Saaheq which just won at 28/1 ... has won off 15lbs higher and a 2 x CD winner... DOH !

Well done Hollie, at last..... for me, lol. Had put a little ew on bang on horse, unfortunately not as successful as yesterday.

Nothing seems to stand out in the open races today: 2.10 Yar Lord Cherry 11/2 5.20 Catt Mr Strutter 9/2 7.50 Km Rose's Girl 4/1 8.35 Bath City Escape 5/1 6 x 0.25 ew dbles, 4 x 0.25 ew trebles and 1 0.25 ew fourfold = poss return of 522.49 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ First two lost. 7.50 KM Rose's Girl 1.25 pts win at 5.5 for a 5.58 profit Total stakes = 6.75 8.20 Km One Step Beyond 1.30 win at 8.8 & Gigi's Beach 1.30 win at 8.8 8.35 Bath City Escape 1 pt win at 9.6 = total stakes now 10.15

i think in the end it is also a question of experience. just like yesterday with djokovic

First leg is set up and registering

Friday.

Wolverhampton 1530 Prism 11 bet365

Wolverhampton 4.00 Connemera Queen 22/1ew bet365

Wolverhampton 15:30 PRISM E/W 12/1 Bet365

A brand new season kicked off not long ago and although there hasn't been any big tournaments really, we've had a couple of Championship League groups play out. Two more get played today but I'm only really interested in Group 9 which houses Barry Hawkins with Peifan Lei, Sijun and Doherty. I'm looking at both Lei and Sijun to potentially cause an early season upset 2pts Sijun to win group 7/2 bet365 1pt Lei to win Group 8/1 bet365

@BARNSLEYCHOPtakes top spot with 14/1 Catterick winner Round The Island

I think this is the part you may be getting what I said mixed up. We'll cut your data down to 3 imaginary games A,B,C with 2 winning You go through all your data with each individual Bookie and find the worst one (lowest A/E) this will then be the book which have offered the lowest odds overall. (hardest to beat, Most accurate) You would then use this book as your datum (take all your odds from this book only to make your A/E) If you are still getting positive returns similar to the one you did with best odds, then great. You then take the teams which in this case is PP have selected @ 2.75 and look up the prices in the other books which you know by picking the worst book will have better prices Your getting +EV of approx 3% just by constructing your model from the worst book. The idea is to try to get as near to break even as possible using the worst performing book as the datum or your model so your virtually guaranteeing + EV on most bets. If the worst book doesnt produce a near break even or +EV then move up to the next one etc NEVER make your model using best prices Where are you going from there , nowhere , your trying to add a %age that doesnt exist You go on BF and pinch an odd point or 2 extra, if your model is from the worst odds your getting the 2 points your pinching on top of the EV 3% from the others

I'm going Germany and Sweden. 10 points each at 9.00 and 8.00 respectively. England are way too short and Spain will miss Putellas.

If that is your base starting point then Yes Where is this mythical 10% coming from, are you saying 9% or 8% would not be good enough or 11% would be too much? An 'edge'/'value' can only exists after the event/events have occurred , you can not manufacture it by attaching some numerical significance to it, Its like gravity everyone knows its there but no one can explain how it works or manufacture it. I have my bot set @ estimated price >1% to<30% anywhere between the 2 Why 1% thats because my estimated price is what Im willing to look to invest in and anything above that should create profit over time Why 30% top , Its because from past calculations my algo has deduced that profitability reduces significantly when above this mark. ( on my personal selection/pricing methods) ie book prices are rarely that far out of sync with reality or its just variance (sh*t happens) All I know is that at this moment in time its running @ 16% yield with a numerical edge of 18% I cannot say which had the most edge or whether they were down to variance or even from which bets the edge derived, all I can do is group them together to give it a number.

There's 2 parts lol.....bath woukd get 4 but listed would get 100 .. so 104 as opposed to Epsom 16 +34 =50 ....so the combined rating stops that ..... Class isn't a stand alone imo ...it really needs a form rating to get the best out but the winner has been in the top 4 best of last 2 runs so if that holds then it woukd be amazing because yiu could narrow Any race to 4 or 5 runners before you even do anything and that alone woukd be worth the effort....I'm really hoping it holds because its like sticking a turbo charger on the ratings if it does

1735 B - With Pleasure @ 33-1 Bet365 (4p) £10 ew.

If >2.75 is beating the market then where/what are you going to add this 10% extra edge too. If 2.75 top price has your added 10% then its 3.03 (2/1) , you cant get from a market whats not there This is the problem with frequentist thinking , by trying to force another 10% onto 2.75 (36%) more money will be made , it will not . The better option would be to take your above example and run it through all the bookmakers you use and find the Book with the worst return and use this as your metric, then if you are still getting a positive return @ 2.5> then you know another book will be giving a better price and therin lies your inbuilt 'value'. ATB VT

Lets see if I can reach double figures this time! Bet 1 Albirex Niigata vs JEF (1-2 90) Under 4.5 goals £15.00 @ 1.01

With thanks to @Valiant Thor for explaining the concept of AE, I decided to calculate it by price band for my sample of anytime goalscorers. This is what I came up with. # Range Players Expected Actual AE P/L E P/L 1 2.00 81 42 37 0.88 -£9.91 -£9.64 2 2.25 237 109 95 0.87 -£30.84 -£30.44 3 2.5 414 172 166 0.97 -£15.77 -£14.44 4 2.75 312 117 119 1.02 £4.25 £5.33 5 3 312 108 108 1.00 -£0.38 £0.00 6 3.25 122 39 39 1.00 -£0.50 £0.00 7 >3.25 97 28 30 1.07 £7.05 £6.93 1575 615 594 0.966 -£46.10 -£53.78 Price ranges are up to evens, above evens up to 2.25 etc. Prices are "best price" from Oddschecker (I ignore "funny" bookies who I've never had an account with and seem to have a tendency to try and get "bold type" for their prices). P/L calculated to £1 level stakes. Expected and actual number of players who scored 1 or more goals. Early conclusions would be: AE is reasonably accurate measure for calculating expected returns given how close the expected P/L is to the actual. There's a clear line between the returns from selections priced at 2.5 or lower (negative returns) and those priced >2.5 (neutral or positive) that suggests it may be a good idea to focus more on the bigger priced selections. It poses the question, if one wanted to keep it simple, might the best approach be just to try and back all players with a best price >2.5 with a 10% edge added! I'm off to run a few more checks.

Catterick 5.20 LIBERTY BREEZE 6/1 £10 EW SKY 4 places

4.50 Cat Round the Island @ 14's bet365

Fritz's service motion is probably more reliable than Sinner's, which is always an issue when nerves come into play. Should be a cracking contest, Fritz certainly is dangerous on his day.

1.02 senounnes-pouance Beltista 18/1 £10 e/w bet365

Unlucky, I'd stay away from the horses especially on the higher odds as the odds are clearly inflated. Probably good value in backing to 50/1+ shots as they will be closer to 100s on betfair!.

Wednesday Limelighter 5.35 Bath 14/1 e/w bet365

A loss on the day as Goffin was just edged out by Norrie and after Maria beat Niemeier, which necessarily meant the acca lost. Jabeur made it through though after losing the first set of her match, so that's good news as I try to mitigate the loss on Swiatek in the outright market.

Thank you Stevie Day for all of your efforts! Big weekend ahead in MLS with a few major derbys - LAFC/LA Galaxy and Portland/Seattle. I'll see if I can swing back here later in the week but I did want to focus my attention on the NYFC/NE Revolution game. As I tend to focus on goals markets, this one is a good spot, imho to see some goals. NYFC's attack, in particular at home, is fantastic. They move the ball swiftly both through the middle and with bombing runs on the flanks, and if Castellanos starts, he always a good bet to get a goal (two this weekend). That said, they are very susceptible on the counter and allow plenty of opportunities against. They are kind of a team in flux here as they have an interim head coach, and big questions about who may be on the move. On the other side you have the Revolution who have made quite a number of moves to solidify this team and honestly I can see them making a late charge to be a contender for the MLS cup. While their last road match at Vancouver (*something like 2,000+ miles away) was a 0-0 draw, most of their away games see plenty of goals, as they score and allow almost 2 per game. NE overall are an over machine with 12/18 getting over 2.5, and 7/8 on the road going over 2.5. As I mentioned, NYFC is very aggressive on the small home field they have this game almost assuredly will get plenty of chances. And while I can't guarantee the goals, I do like o2.75 (-120) for a double unit wager. g'luck

OK, so my attention returns to the UK leagues this month as I look to preview the teams ahead of the new season. I will still look to get the odds and ratings of the MLS games up each week for the remainder of the season but previews will be reduced unless there is a demand for them. Here are the odds and ratings for the next round of games. Keen to hear what bets you guys all have lined up!

Just going for Scottish Open, just used up all free bets. Got a sneaky suspicion about Rahm, he doesnt merit the favourite for me, but think this might be his time. Also went Thomas and Fitzpatrick. Also. Went ew on Rose, fox and hatton.

Bet 5 Won - 5/5 Bank @ £83.66 Was starting to think that last goal was never going to come! Attempts 89 Challenges complete 4 Thread bank -£107.50

Bank update after 58 bets is 21.6 points (so 11.6 points profit).