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Pirate jenny won ....Concert Hall ran well and finished 3rd ...additional won the last ... .not bad as I hate Irish racing ....+19.00 on the day ...I'll take that any day ?

Please let's stop it here and I'm looking forward to some picks!

22/05/2022 18:26:11 Time Meeting Horse Ex_Odds B365 Result sp ep_Profit sp_Profit cum_ep cum_sp 0 14.30 Nottingham Dark Shift 9-0 4.06 2.87 w 4.00 1.87 3.00 1.87 3.00 1 15.40 Nottingham Four Adaay 9-3 5.58 3.00 w 2.88 2.00 1.88 3.87 4.88 2 16.10 Nottingham Hackberry 8-9 3.82 8.00 nr 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.87 4.88 3 17.05 York Mostawaa 9-0 8.88 21.00 l 26.00 -1.00 -1.00 2.87 3.88 4 17.35 York Hyperfocus 8-10 10.38 23.00 l 21.00 -1.00 -1.00 1.87 2.88 5 18.05 York Evaluation 9-5 9.04 8.50 w 8.50 7.50 7.50 9.37 10.38 got some of yesterdays debacle back

Irish 1000 guineas Tuesday 9.3 11/4 Concert hall 9.0 14/1 Mis en scene 8.6 Agartha 8.4 Tricky race ...lots of top class horses in with chances as you'd expect ...Tuesday looks the most likely winner ....but for a bit of value I'm gonna back concert hall ew .....the drop back in trip is questionable but just looks good ew value in a very open race Concert hall 5pt ew 14/1

You think that the bookmakers, get the 'value' wrong often. They don't. They have more data, more computing resources, an array of super bright guys crunching the data. We have no real chance of beating them at their own game. But they want to create a balanced, maximize book. That is the artificial part of the process and that's where you find the 'value'. I call it the imbalance.

Homeless Songs won so a free bet on the 4.00 at York. I'll go for MINNESOTA LAD at 17/2

Fakenham. Double. 3.20. Trump Benefit. 7/2... unpl 3.52. Lakeside Lad. 5/2.... unpl singles & double. Good luck all.

Its tested on 10yrs data Yes, 1 days poor results can be put down to statistical variance , but only if derived from the same model, ATM I dont know if it was variance or due to dropping Runners from the model. Its not the point about 1 days data its that I made a change in the way the data was read ,making any change can effect the output when modelling ,when I ran it through LazyPredict it gave different models for with and without Runners which points toward that being a possible problem. How LazyPredict selects the model to use

Ran a couple of tests this morning to see if I could suss why it performed so badly yesterday I noticed that when I dropped Runners to clean up the printout I also dropped it from being evaluated from the main dataset as well Running a tests through both Dabl & LazyPredict showed I should run it through different models if dropping Runners from the dataset so Ive turned it back on in the dataset and see how it goes. ( a bit trial & error atm but has to be done) lets see how today's fare (at least there's only 6 that can lose today) 22/05/2022 11:15:15 Time Meeting Horse Ex_Odds B365 0 14.30 Nottingham Dark Shift 9-0 4.06 2.87 1 15.40 Nottingham Four Adaay 9-3 5.58 3.00 2 16.10 Nottingham Hackberry 8-9 3.82 8.00 3 17.05 York Mostawaa 9-0 8.88 21.00 4 17.35 York Hyperfocus 8-10 10.38 23.00 5 18.05 York Evaluation 9-5 9.04 8.50

Curragh. 1,000 Guineas. 3.45. Purpleplay. 8/1 ew... unpl Good luck all.

Two singles and a double for me to kick things off. The first single is Halys to beat Isner and this is ultimately about these conditions not being ideal for Isner. Halys is a decent clay court player and he's at home and if Isner has to rely on tie-breaks things could get interesting. Second single is Pera to beat Teichmann and although I can understand the love for Teichmann, Pera is the kind of player that can beat almost anyone when her game is on song. I'd expect Teichmann to win, but Pera is the play at the prices for me. The double is Zapata Miralles and Sasnovich to win and is about taking on their opponents. Mmoh much prefers hard courts and Wang hasn't had a decent result on clay at this level for some time. 15pts Halys to beat Isner @ 2.70 Boyles 20pts Pera to beat Teichmann @ 3.40 365 10pts Zapata Miralles (vs. Mmoh) x Sasnovich (vs. Wang) @ 1.92 365

420 curr Big gossey 8.6 12/1 Rough diamond 8.3 6/1 Verhoyen 8.0 8/1 Additional 8.0 8/1 See if can squeeze some profit out 4x3pt wins ..12 x .5 forecasts

210 curr Pirate jenny 8.5 7/2 Elanora 8.3 8/1 Sister lola 8.3 16/1 Open race but close,at the top ....I'll try 3x 4pt wins ..6x 1pt forecasts

3.38 Musselburgh Tommy G @ 20/1 E/W (Bet365)

11/1 winner as Humphries does it again

I appreciate your contributions @neilovan and I can completely understand your frustrations.

Lol, you don't understand basic mathematics. It takes about 6 winners to recover, but I seem to make 8 winners (on average and much more when going really well), for every low priced loser. I don't take big bets on 5 legged bets, so variable staking works, especially when you win big, and lose small/smaller. So in 26 bets if I lose 2 it takes 12 bets to get the 2 lost bets back, but my other 12 bets are all profit. I tend not to bring up the winning streaks, but 2nd favorites losing first round annoys me, especially from 1 set up and cruising. 5/11/2022Tsitsipas v Dimitrov777386505343Tsitsipas 5/11/2022Gauff v Brengle737371303343Gauff, Cori 5/11/2022Jabeur v Tomljanovic778888302714Jabeur, Ons 5/11/2022C Lui v A Gasanova757571474357C Lui 5/11/2022Sinner v Fognini778786272742Sinner 5/12/2022Zverev v De Minuar777386232014Zverev 5/12/2022Tsitsipas v Khackanov777386202029Tsitsipas 5/12/2022Sinner v Krajinovic77878623130Sinner 5/12/2022Jabeur v Putintseva7788100435343Jabeur, Ons 5/12/2022Wiatek v Azarenka8794100434029Swaitek 5/13/2022Zverev v Garin777386301314Zverev 5/13/2022C Lui v V Gracheva757572474043C Lui 5/17/2022A Molcan v Tsonga758383271414A Molcan 5/17/2022Kwon v Bedene705050202614Kwon 5/16/2022Kerber v Parry776729172020A Kerber 5/16/2022Ruusuvouri v Paire809310023130Ruusuvouri 5/17/2022C Lui v Rakhamova75100100414557C Lui 5/17/2022R Marino v P Ormaechea757575332020R Marino 5/17/2022De Minaur v Humbert7087100403314De Minuar 5/17/2022Norrie v F Cerundolo809386473663Norrie 5/17/2022Baez v Otte757186393343Baez 5/18/2022Ruud v Paire80696323130Ruud 5/19/2022Opelka v Griekspoor778886323143Opelka 5/19/2022Ivashka v J Sousa778171203343Ivashka 5/19/2022Gasquet v Majchrzak73735711120Gasquet 5/21/2022Ruud v J Sousa776950203343C Ruud I am in big profit. Just gotta no react and take the defeats with the victories. I know the strategy works. Does yours? I would like to win, and I would like you to win as well. I derive no pleasure from seeing anyone (except the bookmakers) lose.

Almost with surprise and compassion I watch tipsters betting several legged matches with very small odds. How long does it take to recover with just one missed match? Later we are witnesses of the lamentation of these heroic investors

BET365 4/1 TV Offer selections CURR 3.45 Homeless Songs (11) 11/2 YORK 6.40 Random Harvest (5) 4/1

Very little time today, don't know where it goes. Anyway, thought I would focus on @richard-westwood's races at the Curragh 2.10 Pirate Jenny 9/4 3.30 Tuesday 10/3 1 x 2 pt win double. Poss return of 30.87 points 2.10 Curr Elanora 1 pt at 15/2, Sister Lola (trainer/jockey out of form)11/1, She's In The Game 12/1 and Zaajirar 11/1, last = 0.5 pts win 3.245 Curr Homeless Song 1 pt win 11/2, Miss En Scene 12/1, Argatha 12/1 and Concert Hall 14/1, last 3 = 0.5 pts win 4.20 curr Rough diamond 1 pt at 15/2, Additional 1 pt at 8/1, Verhoyen 0.5 pts 7/1 and Big Goosey 0.5 pts at 20/1 Total stakes = 10 points Not brave enough for forecasts and Tricasts but best of luck to Richard ?

European Win Trixie 300 Auteuil - SEL GEM 4/1 1st 345 Curragh - TUESDAY 3/1 2nd 410 Nottingham - BLISTERING BARNEY 7/5 1st

radio goo goo 1.00

3 picks for the WTA French Open matches tomorrow: SWIATEK-7 GAMES HANDICAP OVER TSURENKO @ 1.52 pinnacle Swiatek is certaintly a no.1 favorite to win the tournament. Tsurenko has not been at good form lately. SABALENKA-6 GAMES HANDICAP OVER PAQUET @ 1.56 pinnacle Sabalenka is not at her best in 2022, but still is good enough to win easily. BADOSA-6 GAMES HANDICAP OVER FERRO @ 1.44 pinnacle Ferro is a good clay court player but she is out of form this season, Badosa almost always wins those matches easily.

Hugo Dellien/Dom Thiem over 38.5 games at 1.85 with Nordicbet Here I think we'll probably see something of a tussle where both players will grind out some sets. Even if Dom is lagging behind nowadays after injuries he's not someone you just run over easily in a claymatch.

FAA might have lost in the opening round of the RG last 2 years but he has a new coach last year, Toni Nadal, the ex-coach of Rafael Nadal. FAA is much better prepared this time and in much better condition compared to the last 2 editions. Therefore I think winning the 1st round this time within 4 sets is within his ability.

4:35 York - Showtime Mahomes - 16/1 PP

1745 Lingfield 5. Merlins Beard WIN 11/1 bet366

The Greyhound Derby starts tonight at Towcester live on RPGTV with Heats 1-10 tonight 11-21 tomorrow, 22-32 on Saturday Heat 1 due off at 1835 Outrights im looking at a couple at bigger prices to upset the tables Aussie Captain 100/1 EW Sporting Chile 28/1 EW Individual Heats my 1-2-3 Thursday: Heat 1: 1-6-2 Result: 1-4-3 (Aussie Captain - Skywalker Forte - Narcos The Great) Heat 2: 1-3-4 Result: 3-4-5 (Bockos Belly - Hoodoo Brown - Savana Carmino) Heat 3: 6-2-3 Result: 2-3-4 (Innfield Trojan - Make Noise - Goldies Perryman) Heat 4: 5-3-1 Result: 1-3-5 (Spinosaurus - Hello Hammond - Sporting Chile) Heat 5: 2-3-4 Result: 2-4-1 (Deelish Frankie - Antigua Cuddles - Swift Iconic) Heat 6: 4-6-1 Result: 4-5-6 (Lautaro - Ballymore Border - Amaze Me Seb) Heat 7: 2-1-3 Result: 2-3-5 (Da Bold Freddie - Dapper Rodney - Droopys Goodtime) Heat 8: 2-1-4 Result: 4-1-2 (Skywalker Barry - Ballymac Fairone - Bockos Leah) Heat 9: 6-1-2 Result: 3-5-6 (Magical Duke - Chubbys Jet - Priceless Jet) Heat 10: 2-4-5 Result: 5-4-6 (Signet Goofy - Savana Beau - Ninja Kerry) Friday: Heat 11: Result: 1-3-4 (Bobsleigh Dream - Swift Woof - Ballymac Bullet) Heat 12: Result: 3-4-1 (Part Blake - Singalong Sally - Kilkenny Santy) Heat 13: Result: 2-1-5 (Master Ten Ten - Droopys Cavalry - Blackrose Tadhg) Heat 14: Result: 5-4-2 (Mickeys Barrett - Coppice Fox - Dreamers United) Heat 15: Result: 3-2-1 (Callmesteve - Glengar Scholar - Signet Ace) Heat 16: Result: 3-1-4 (Emilys Jet - Skywalker Stan - Old Fort Chicago) Heat 17: Result: 4-6-1 (Scarty Yank - Narcos Dode - Freedom Alibi) Heat 18: Result: 4-1-5 (Le Bonite - Kildare - Trumps Benefit) Heat 19: Result: 3-1-6 (Signet Denver - Coolavanny Calvn - Thorn Falcon) Heat 20: Result: 5-2-3 (Ballinabola Ed - Cushie Concorde - Global Vision) Heat 21: Result: 3-1-4 (Cape Cloud - Whats Up Eva - Milton Noah) Saturday Heat 22: 4-6-1 Result: 1-4-5 (Barefoot Supremo - Bubbly Apache - Derrinasafa Boss) Heat 23: 5-6-1 Result: 6-3-2 (Faughan Rebel - Burnchurch Mick - Seomra Razl) Heat 24: 5-4-2 Result: 5-4-1 (Storys Peewee - Glengar Jenny - Jaytee Wexford) Heat 25: 1-2-5 Result: 2-1-5 (Deadly Showtime - Romeo On Tilt - Narcos Tata) Heat 26: 5-6-1 Result: 5-6-1 (Deanridge Skippy - Coppice Brewer - Jumeirah Jimmy) Heat 27: 4-6-2 Result: 4-1-3 (Bockos Viera - Makeit For Waz - Farneys Maestro) Heat 28: 1-4-3 Result: 1-2-3 (Wide Open - Zazzeras Jack - Borna Wine) Heat 29: 2-1-3 Result: 4-1-2 (Daring Deise - Knight Tornado - Romeo Magico) Heat 30: 4-3-5 Result: 6-2-5 (All About Ted - Headford Mike - Fernandes) Heat 31: 2-4-3 Result: 2-3-1 (Ballymac Leon - Baggios Champ - Lemon Bartacus) Heat 32: 2-1-6 Result: 2-1-3 (Romeo De Niro - Stefans Rocket - Longrange Dick)

Double. 3.50.Leic.Postmark. ........ 7/1... unpl 5.40.Wins.Captain Wierzba. 4/1... 2nd singles & double Good luck all.

RESULTS UPDATE 3 winners but Tuesday let me down on Sunday. Fantastic performance by Homeless Songs. Had Tuesday won I would have been quids in with my double. My profit of 5.5 was brought about by @richard-westwood's selection Additional winning so thanks to him once more. I feel that I am beginning to get the hang of tackling these wide open races. I used to think it was better to play safe with 3/4 possible selections under 9/1 and favourites at odds between evens and 2/1. After two years of wasting time on these beasts I now feel I'm better off playing the seemingly wider open races. In this regard @Zilzalianwas right. I needed to change tack. My thanks to him for that. In all honesty I don't feel that one necessarily gets a better run from an even-money shot as opposed to a 5/1 fancied runner in an open race. +5.5 points = MTD +69.32 and YTD -159.95

intrenational girl 6.40 ew

wor willie 6.05

Alanquer 9/2 last night, Lord North 2/1 fav, Alenquer beat Lord North fair and square last year, it also beat Derby winner Adayar fair and square. sometimes, not often, you get a gift, and yes i know i posted this after the event but my point is obvious. As a little follow up to this. Tuesday 5/1 second fav for the Oaks, this is a horse that has 1 win from 4 races, good luck with that one if your daft enough.

2 X £5 EW SKY 7 places York 3.30 Freak Out 16/1 York 3.30 Howzer Black 18/1

Arsenal Leeds over liverpool 1 30

@delfino I agree that he should find a new coach, but firing one's father isn't as easy as it sounds most of the time (unless he's happy for someone else to take over).

Seems that Thiem is lost in space at the moment. I don't know what to expect from him in future. Perhaps a new Del Porto case? Nadal won his first Roland Garros title in 2005 at the age of 19. Alcaraz is 19 years old! If Tsitsipas don't get rid of his mug father, no chance to make any progress. I agree that he hasn't improve his game in the last 3 years. He is moving backwards instead of forwards. I can not understand why he dosn't fire for ever a father that destroys him with his ugly and rude behavior. For me Alcaraz/Swiatek to win in ATP and WTA respectively.

I think that was a wise move Harry. I think i would have got itchy trigger fingers after the 2nd round and cashed out then lol. It's been such a topsy turvy leaderboard i don't think it would be worth the potential last round stress just for a few extra points profit. Great selections and well done mate.

10 x 1pt Final Day Two Ball Selections, All prices Bet365 Selection in BOLD Maverick McNealy vs Sepp Straka 2.15 Denny McCarthy vs Jordan Spieth 2.90 Brooks Koepka vs Harold Varner III 1.83 Russell Henley vs Rikuya Hoshino 2.50 Rickie Fowler vs Aaron Wise 2.10 Laurie Canter vs Justin Rose 2.30 Adri Arnaus vs Rory McIlroy 3.00 Lucas Herbert vs Max Homa 1.70 Sam Burns vs Gary Woodland 1.83 Stewart Cink vs Justin Thomas 3.10

I'm out with a profit of 86.5 x stake (would only be 92 if all 3 players stayed where they are and there's more potential downside than up for Pereira and Young with them being 1st and 4th). Closed out on those two at 4 and 8 respectively, Gooch at 37.5 for a small profit. Was slightly surprised to be able to take a profit on him with him being T36th. Would be the wrong decision should he shoot a good final round but he's gone 69, 70 and 74 so far and my gut says he may fade further today. Good luck to those still with an interest. From my point of view I'd be slightly less rueful about not putting win bets on if none of my players won but I hope Pereira lands the odds for those who did back him that way.

yeah thiem my 2nd favorite player might never actualy come anywhere near to his top level again it seems...incredible how after us open at the peak of his career someone with his work ethic just let it all slip away especialy in his prime. Took zandschulp to win, I like what I ve seen from him on clay this year and tbh don t realy know who his oponent even is, I also went with borges taking a set of khachanov,risky but worth it IMO, I think borges will fight hard.

5.05 York Eilean Dubh EW 8/1 bet365

Sunday 22/05 /2022 Curragh 04:20 VERHOYEN f/c. 22/1 Stake = 5 pts. EACH WAY

RESULTS UPDATE My nap bet with wonder boy Harry Davies aboard lost by a neck and in the last race my selection Tomasaka got beaten a neck by guess who, Harry Davies. Gidwa came 2nd. My stakes were largely saved by backing Richard's horse so thanks to him All this meant a small loss of 1.51 points. My MTD is +63.82 & YTD - 165.45 That was quite a lot of fun for a small loss. I thought that the day would be difficult and it proved to be so. I have no qualms about using other members' selections for my betting purposes. It seems OK to me as long as I don't claim them to be my own. I'm a bit tired but will take a peek at tomorrow's meetings including the Curragh

Week 37 Table https://fantasy.premierleague.com/leagues/341581/standings/h Team Sagga (Ivan Kasagga) has taken over at the top of the league - well done!

Also what do you think about Aliassime - 1,5 sets, khakhanov and gauff? I also like vekic odds, but her serve from quali make me stay away. (26 double faults if i remember corectly)

asjad 535 york 18/1 willy hills

York 5.15 ADMIRALITY 22/1 £10 EW SKY 6 places

Palace v Man Utd (1) @ 3.0 Brighton v West Ham (x) @ 3.4 £20 double please. Thanks for all the admin Avongirl ???