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Showing content with the highest reputation on 02/17/2022 in all areas

  1. Couple of Grace races over hurdles this afternoon ....... Sand 2.20 - Love Envoi is an odds on favourite but I'll take her on with Nina The Terrier at 5/1 bet365 The favourite is climbing the ranks having won her last 3 in maiden and novice company but my selection has some form in listed races. Probably not much between them and the favourite might over-take my selection in time but for today I'll just go with the one at the biggest price Clonmel 2.30 - Bookies can't separate the top two in the market ...... I'll take Shantreusse at 13/8 bet365 over Mr Fred Rogers. The latter has beaten my selection narrowly before but is prone to jumping errors so I'd rather back the safer jumper when there's only a length or two between them over 3 miles !
    4 points
  2. Selections will be Monday to Saturday. There should be selections most days; Kicking off with these; €30 win on each. 02/17/2022 14:37 FONTWELL Galtee Mountain 02/17/2022 16:22 FONTWELL Uallrightharry 02/17/2022 13:10 SANDOWN Seventeen O Four 02/17/2022 19:00 CHELMSFORD (A.W) Exceedingly Regal
    3 points
  3. My advice is .....look at historic winners.....gold cup ....champ hurdle etc and look how they were campaigned in the 12 monthes prior ......you will most certainly see a pattern especially at the higher levels and that's a good starting point
    3 points
  4. Some trainers will mention in the racing post that race X is the long term target. Generally the bigger owners and higher profile trainers will be the ones aiming at the festivals. However , some trainers target races at their local/favourite track, the Racing post again provide details in a yearly book giving the stats for all trainers which could be studied. If you are looking to just predict winners, watching races will be a big help. Also remember, every horse is on a training cycle, usually about 16 weeks from start to a winning finish, walking, trotting, cantering, and fast work. During this time they may run the horse and get beat, this often lowers the handicap mark for when it is 'fully tuned up'. This is how horses often 'reverse form' with a rival, they may be on different parts of their training cycle. Without inside knowledge we often have to use 'guess work' and recent form. I often look for trainers hitting form, especially the smaller stables, as they will work all of their horses together. The bigger stables may just be working one barn and not all of them will be on the same cycle.
    3 points
  5. Average winning odds of 2.08 Returned 364.67 to 1pt staked profit 22.67 ( 6.6%) There you go ATB VT
    3 points
  6. Hi there, hope everyone is good. I know a lot of experienced punters that can recognise a certain type of horse such as a Grand National horse or a Gold Cup horse (not necessarily winning those races but runs in those sorts of races and is aimed at them) by how it’s campaigned as well as the key races and type of form that show that a horse is heading for the given race. How can I begin to learn or figure this out and the key races/type of form in the calendar for a given race? Or the look/type of form for the high class races? I hope this made sense and any help would be greatly appreciated. Many thanks
    2 points
  7. Torque

    Slow and steady...

    Celtic were awful. Still, it could have been worse if you'd chosen to back Dortmund on a plus as well. A double of Rangers and Bodo Glimt would have paid about 100 to 1. Maybe we're all barking up the wrong tree with the small odds
    2 points
  8. I have gone through the data again due to some errors while trying to loop through the data Cleaned the data so theres no corrupt cells so should be ok now As you can see below the front 3 in the market most have above average IV's , but due to overbetting ,WOTC & WOM the market isnt far from spot on give or take a few % either way FEB without Novice Chases Ave odds 2.16 Returned 938.36 P/L -29.64 FEB All Non Hcp Chases Ave odds 2.10 Returned 1540.07 P/L -38.93 Mine are to book sp so maybe backing @ BF sp some slight improvement Taking years you put up 2012 - 2021 I get..... FEB All Non Hcp Chases Ave odds 2.10 Returned 713.63 P/L 28.63 10yr return = 4% Ex longest losing run 12 FEB without Novice Chases Ave odds 2.12 Returned 426.35 P/L 32.35 10yr return = 8% Ex longest losing run 11 Seems 2012-2021 are just variance in the results as the more years are added the results tend to revert to the mean (approx 5%-10% overound) and 8% profit over that timespan is not realy a worthwhile target even at a decent sr the cramped odds could and most probably would wipe the whole lot out with an above average bad run . I wouldnt be throwing my lads inheritance at it thats for sure. But you never know G'Luck ATB VT PS Forgot to add, non of the 2nd or 3rd favs with above average IV's make a profit either for the same reasons as the favs ( just saving anyone time whose thinking of checking those out )
    2 points
  9. Without wishing to be explicit about the extent to which I have or haven't followed your selections during my "tracker" experiment (in case you don't want the "pressure" of being followed or the spectre of being jinxed) I can say that with your selections included I'd be showing a profit despite the recent losses and without your selections I'd be showing a loss. (7.1 points up with you included versus 5.59 points down if not). So, assuming the recent trio of losses is a blip, you're doing ok in terms of beating the odds!
    2 points
  10. Hi, hope all is well. Was going to resume posting in here if there was an interest. Slight twist on what we were looking at previously - starting bank of €1,000; looking to double it. Stake is 3% of the bank at the start of each day on each selection; backing to win, all results recorded at Betfair SP.
    2 points
  11. I did a lot of analysis on recent trainer form and struggled to find a winning angle, the problem as usual is that it is often highlighted by the media so there is a danger that they become overbet.
    2 points
  12. 1.45 Sand - Desque De L'isle - 11/4 Bet365 B.O.G. Venetia Williams is in great form at the moment (12 wins, 10 placed from 40 runners last 2 weeks), she runs 5 today with IMO her best 2 chances at Sandown. I backed the selection LTO but it never really got into the race and was the beaten Fav. Hopefully will do much better this time. The top weight (Torpillo) is easing in class but but fingers crossed the VW stable bags another winner.
    2 points
  13. Week 3 then. Here's the line up : Smith Vs Price Cullen Vs MVG Anderson Vs Wright Wade Vs Clayton Smith hasn't taken well to these 2 weeks with 2 losses in a row and it means he is bottom of the league. His first week average was a woeful 85 but last week he hit a 95 average and still lost. It doesn't get any easier for him as he is now against Price. Price also lost week 1 and went out to Cullen in the Semi finals in week 2. The difference is with Price now is that he is hitting 180s again and for a while he wasn't hitting them nowhere near as frequently. I think he wins this one. Joe Cullen is absolutely smashing it right now. He won his first big TV event and since then he has gone and won back-to-back Players Championships. He lost to Clayton week 1 but hit a good average (95) and then last week he made the final and lost 6-4 with a 5pt better average. In terms of confidence, he should be firing on all cylinders. MVG has this strange way of having the other player play brilliant against him. He went out in R1 to Anderson in Week 1 with Anderson having 5pt less average then him and then last week he went out to Clayton despite hitting a 105 average. His doubling is definitely suffering but his scoring seems just as good. It's a hard one to call this. It's an all-Scottish meeting in the third match as Anderson takes on Peter Wright. These two played eachother in Week 1 and it finished on a deciding leg as Wright won 6-5. Anderson had a good week 1 but last week he went out with a 90 average and I think Wright probably comes through this. In the final match Clayton takes on Wade. I still am of the believe that Wade will only beat these guys if they play badly and that has showed itself in the first two weeks. He beat Price when Price hit an 89 average and he lost last week with an 88 average. He can't win matches below 90 really. It's just not likely in this company. I think Clayton wins and hits the most 180s. The 13/2 boost of Price, MVG, Wright and Clayton looks worth a punt. I like Price and Clayton and I think MVG based on his performance last week is worth backing with this kind of price. Cullen's form is excellent but MVG actually leads the highest averages across these 2 weeks so far (101.40) Anderson could be the thorn in the side as he is playing some real good stuff but at 13/2 it's worth a couple points. Finally, I think MVG at 5/1 is overpriced to win the night. If he gets through Cullen then I think he beats Price. I just have a feeling that he wins one tonight. 5pts Clayton to beat Wade and hit the most 180s evens betfair 2pts MVG to win Night 3 5/1 betfair 2pts Price, MVG, Wright and Clayton 13/2 betfair
    2 points
  14. @gbettle @MCLARKE I wouldnt get 2 carried away with those results they are for NH tracks only That is NOT INCLUDING mixed tracks ie Flat & Jumps and AW & Jumps courses I'll run a a month by month breakdown of all the tracks later (going out for some lunch now)
    2 points
  15. You were doing well with the other markets, I'd just stay clear of the over .5 unless it's teams you are familiar with. Good luck with the next attempt ?
    2 points
  16. Won. BSP 3.03 23 / 105, lsp + 4.28
    2 points
  17. Won. BSP 6.29 24 / 106, lsp + 9.47
    1 point
  18. Nothing really catching my eye at moment and weather is poor next couple days .....I did rate a race but hard to squeeze any profit out so I'll post as an example race just to see how it gets on 530 chelm . Thaaki 9.3 Inaam 9.0 Got no dollar 8.8 Martineo 8.5 Got no dollar is currently short 2/1 so a bit short considering how competitive this looks .... but still an interesting race to watch
    1 point
  19. That's a decent bet ....Will he get a run that's the problem but nrnb you cant go wrong
    1 point
  20. No pressure at all. I thought the WBA game was a bit dodgy and was not surprised it ended 0-0 but was very surprised when I checked the score of the Peterborough game last night. In two minds to take out profit as I go or go for a 30 game run before taking out profit.
    1 point
  21. interesting richard ive got a 1/5 of a pt on both Revich 50/1 and Emporio 40/1 NRNB
    1 point
  22. Since the LSP is based on BSP, I'll differ with that - when I can - joint favs. So, I'll count myself lucky that Krabat is 4.3 and Calvallino (5th) is 4.33: date time course_name favourite pos bsp LSP bank 17/02/2022 1455 Sandown Park Hogan's Height 2 3.35 -1.00 4.38 17/02/2022 1615 Clonmel Krabat 1 4.3 3.30 7.68
    1 point
  23. Bet 6 won. Next stake £188.92
    1 point
  24. My bad I just sent the results to Decembers sheet to save overwriting the results in the FEB sheets before copy & pasting to the post and didnt bother changing the month title
    1 point
  25. Absolutely, some crazy results out there at times!! Definitely need some luck on our side at times! Good luck ?
    1 point
  26. harry_rag

    Juggernaut #1

    2 from 3 yesterday and 24 out of 25 overall. First "reload" required, next stake is 13.01 points. Still in front, 5.03 to actual stakes v 5.59 had I done 10% of bank or 6.04 to level stakes. Longest winning run so far is 22 bets and current run is 2.
    1 point
  27. Salah scores so one from two yesterday. 60 winners from 174 bets (34.48%) for a profit of 19.39 points.
    1 point
  28. NO just a blanket bet of all NonHcp chases
    1 point
  29. From 20yrs data There were 573 runners started Fav or JT Fav of those 306 won @ an ave winning odds of 2.06 This gives a return of 629.50 @ book sp with a profit of 56.50 ( 9.8%) if backed @ 1pt blindly. The IV shows favs in these races @ this time of year are 2.7 times more likely to win than average (IV of 1.00) **For the pedants out there who think the total sr should equal 100% its due to jt favs , 2nd favs etc ** ATB VT
    1 point
  30. 10.50 Fontainebleau 2m6f chase xcountry. all the money is for the Lagenste Macaire runner, however the combination of different track and crucially trip, up 2f from its 2 previous XCountry events in Pau leads me to take both Cooper Des Ongrais and Extreme (Felix de Giles ridden always a benefit in these events) as possible punts against it.maybe a small reverse Fcast as well.
    1 point
  31. 1st, No. 3 Dolphin Square BSP 1.97 : "Tracked leaders, made challenge after 7th, led after 2 out (usual 3 out), ridden and went clear before last, comfortably (op 8/11 tchd Evens)"
    1 point
  32. Arthurs Seat Sandown 13:10 9/1 @ BET365
    1 point
  33. Leicester 3.55 Here We Have It Bet365 7/2
    1 point
  34. Just wanted to say congrats to Matt (raveon14) for taking the PLO leg by storm tonight at his first attempt. Very well done and to Punters Lounge
    1 point
  35. CHELMSFORD 8.30 ENFRANCHISE 7/4 WH
    1 point
  36. He should have a good shot - likes this part of the world and this time in the season.
    1 point
  37. placed 2nd 33/1bog +£56 +£28.50 feb -£756.50 1st oct
    1 point
  38. Brighton (2) 2.10 £9 Single
    1 point
  39. Newcastle @ 2.70 Celtic @ 1.08 25pts double
    1 point
  40. Brentford v Palace (x) 3.00 Wigan v Charlton (1) 1.83 Burton v Cambridge (x) 3.50 10 pt treble, please.
    1 point
  41. Lazio 1.67 AC Milan 1.40 20 Double please
    1 point
  42. WOLVES (2) 5.80 £27.50 Single
    1 point
  43. Psg 1.50 Lazio 1.67 20
    1 point
  44. Alaves over 2.5 2.10 10 pts single plz
    1 point
  45. £12.50 Treble PSG @1.50 Leipzig @1.44 Sevilla @1.44
    1 point
  46. Everton - Leeds (Over 2.5) @1.70 PSG - Rennes (1) @1.50 25 points double
    1 point
  47. 15 points win Everton @ 2.20
    1 point
  48. Hello! 15 points treble: 1. Lens over 2.5/1.57/ 2. Levante over 2.5/1.67/ 3. Reading over 2.5/1.85/ ---------------------------------------------- 15*/////////4.85//////////////72.75/////// Good luck !!!!
    1 point
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