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Showing content with the highest reputation on 04/13/21 in Posts

  1. cool...... the two biggest priced ones win ! returns 123.75, profit 103.75 this month +128.75
    6 points
  2. Having gone so close to landing 4/4 on the draw yankee last week I am going to have another go on tonight's games. Again I am going to use Boreham Wood as a cornerstone for the bet. They travel to Chesterfield and given they tend to win their games 1-0 I don't think there will be much in this game at all. They are both good sides and the draw certainly stands out as value. Dagenham and Eastleigh are both struggling to score goals so that is another one which could easily end up as a draw. The big game of the night is Sutton v Torquay and Sutton are looking nervy having drawn 4 of their last 5
    6 points
  3. All prices Bet365: 1.35 Newmarket - 1pt e/w Fourshadesofsilver @ 22/1 Doesn't have the powerful connections of some of these but has an excellent pedigree with several smart half siblings and its dam was good too. Will stay further in time but its relatives have 2 year old form and the sire's 2 year old speed should serve this one well as it starts its career so looks a live outsider. 2.00 Southwell - 1pt e/w Mr Mafia @ 14/1 Might need this return but will enjoy conditions and this track suits his front running style. Is eased in grade on his return and I want to take o
    5 points
  4. 3pt win single 1335 Newmarket Forca Brasil 9/4 (Put this one up the other week and it was pulled due to the vets recommendation. Trainer has come out since and was very unhappy it was pulled. I think they were expecting a big run. Jumps off the paper on breeding and has been backed in from opening price. I don't like 5f 2yo races at all as they're so unpredictable but I'm willing to take a chance on this one tomorrow). 2pt win single 1555 Newmarket Riot 5/1 4.5pt win single 1630 Newmarket Rewaayat 5/2 (Was sent this at 7/2 but missed t
    4 points
  5. 1st Returns £68
    4 points
  6. 3 for me today all newmarket 2.10 mutasabeq 100/30 won slight drift to 4/1 3.55 eton college 11/2 unplaced 4.30 rewaayat 5/2 2nd Good luck 🤙
    4 points
  7. No. You would need to calculate the expected chance of each selection from the odds, then add these up to calculate the expected number of winners and then compare this to the actual number of winners.
    3 points
  8. I think the trouble with Kelly is that it assumes you know what the edge is on each race, in reality we don't know what our edge is until after the results. We have to use our historical edge but this isn't a guarantee about the future. Former Nobel Laureate Bertrand Russell describes the chicken that sees the farmer feed him every day and so assumes this trend will continue. Which it does - until one day the farmer wrings it's neck !
    3 points
  9. 150 newm weds Gunmetal 9.3 Going places 9.1 Count Otto 8.6 Chil chil 8.2 Going places is well fancied but has mainly run on all weather so I'll take him on with gunmetal and count otto with 4 places on offer with will hill Gunmetal 5pts ew 11/2 willh 4 places Count otto 5pts ew 9/1 will h 4places
    3 points
  10. Top 2 never got going ...started slow ....3rd and 4th rated double and symbolise finished 1st and 2nd
    3 points
  11. Great start Barnes1882 🤑
    3 points
  12. I've still got it mate yes. I know it's drifted but they all have because one has been smashed in. Now that's clearly fancied to go well but it's a 5f 2yo race which as I previously mentioned I don't like to bet on. All it takes is that red hot fav to miss the break and it's race over. They're risky affiars these races so I'm happy to keep my bet on and trust my assumption that they're expecting a big run is correct, but I couldn't advise others on whether to keep the bet or cash out sorry.
    3 points
  13. I would probably ignore the 1pt and 2pt selections and put a larger amount on the maximum selections. If your total profit at the end of this week was higher than the previous week then I would increase it to £12. If you then reached a new high at the end of the following week then it would increase to £13. If you then made a loss the following week the stake would stay at £13 and then would remain at that until you next reached a new high. It's a slow process but has worked well for me. It has taken me 6 years to get from £2 to £69 but I feel comfortable placing £69 on a s
    3 points
  14. Has anybody called Fognini to ask about his intentions for today? 😆
    3 points
  15. 1.35 Newmarket Magic Warrior 15/4 2.20 Newton Abbot Whiskey Lullaby 5/2 2.45 Newmarket Overwrite 9/2 5.00 Newcastle Hajey 5/2 5.30 Newcastle Athabasca 5/1 Good luck all CNBB.
    3 points
  16. Cheltenham 2.05 Grade 2 handicap Benatar 7.75 , 8/1(7/1) value Two Taffs 7.6 , 22/1(7/1) value Coole Cody 7.5, 4/1(7/1) no value
    2 points
  17. I’ve had a practise go at this as it’s a decent card tomorrow . Count Otto 8.15 1st Chil Chil 7.55 2nd Dazzling Dan 7.5 Gun Metal 7.4 im struggling to rate form on the ones that haven’t ran for a while . What I’ve done is looked at their record when fresh and scored them on that , but I’m not confident doing that. Will be glad when most of them have had 1-2 runs .
    2 points
  18. Nell gwyn stakes Saffron beach 9.4 11/4 Ventura diamond 9.2 12/1 Divine light 8.5 5/1 Love is you 8.3 100/30 Classy race ....saffron beach looks a strong contender but plenty in with chances ....Ventura diamond looks way overpriced on 12/1 with 4 places .....so I'll try win on top rated and ew on Ventura Saffron beach 10pt win 11/4 Ventura diamond 5pt ew 12/1 sky 4 places
    2 points
  19. Villa Chris

    Pricing your own race

    Still well rated .
    2 points
  20. yeah ive dropped 5-6f from my system. backing the larger prices is profitable with right parameters but long losing runs between! i prefer to cover some.0 to 9-2 and some 5-1 to 14-1!
    2 points
  21. AW selection Newcastle 8.00 CMON CMON 7/1
    2 points
  22. Regarding points , I keep it simple. 1 point=£1 . It’s rare I bet more than 10 points on a selection. I just like to keep things as simple as possible in what can become a complicated sport to bet on. I’m still not fully happy with my strategy. Hoping to smooth some things over for the flat season, then be ready for the jumps next season which I prefer .
    2 points
  23. Two more doubles and done for the day.... 2pt win double 1400 Southwell First Class Return 1420 Newton Abbot Whiskey Lullaby 5/1 2pt win double 1410 Newmarket Noble Dynasty 1930 Newcastle Victorious Night 6/1 15pts staked in total (1.5pts lost already of that 15pts due to French double)
    2 points
  24. Sorry mate, been very busy and only just read this properly. Will explain how I do my pts staking later on but I'm always open to suggestions and not stubborn enough to ignore good advice so will definitely have a rethink. Basically if I start with a pot of say £100 as I did. I staked £5 per pt as that gave me 20pts and I was confident I wouldn't lose 20pts. Then when I hit £200 I went to £10 stakes per pt. But then I stopped upping my stakes as I didn't feel comfortable staking more than that. I work on a system of 1-3pts. 1pt being a normal selection I like, 2pts confident and 3p
    2 points
  25. Nice results yesterday with two good winners. All are Win Backs where the price is above 5.0 at the off. Here's todays selections; 13th April 13 Apr 2021 13:00 NEWMARKET Magical Land 13 Apr 2021 14:00 SOUTHWELL First Class Return 13 Apr 2021 14:10 NEWMARKET Mutasaabeq 13 Apr 2021 14:45 NEWMARKET Oh This Is Us 13 Apr 2021 15:20 NEWMARKET Royal Champion
    2 points
  26. Got bored with the mediocre racing today, so started doing a bit of Google Search. Start off with this one. Luke Harvey getting roasted by Barney Curley. The Underachiever!!! hahahah
    2 points
  27. Blimey , Luke Harvey with hair ( kind of ) Barney & Big Mac couple of characters , most of the racing commentary fraternity are wooden types zero personalities nowadays !
    2 points
  28. We had 25 winning bets this week, mostly small gains, however this week's top performers are stuboy43 with a nice 9/1 treble and Procalc who had faith in the mighty Leeds for an 11/1 return 11 players have doubled their starting bank so far Will wait til Weds to take the new odds and hopefully any Saturday matches which need rearranging will have been rescheduled.
    2 points
  29. Won at 9/2. Now 8/39 + 12.73 LSP.
    2 points
  30. I agree. I increase my base stake by £1 for every week that my total profit increases. I started many years ago at a £2 stake, it is now up to £69.
    2 points
  31. Good luck to both of you
    1 point
  32. 4.10 Newmarket Portfolio 5/1 4.45 Newmarket Just Fine 3/1 6.15 Kempton Ransom 15/8 8.15 Kempton Gunnerside 15/8 Good luck all CNBB.
    1 point
  33. Sorry about today guys. 15pts staked and 15pts returned with the drift to 4/1 on the winner. Really glad I stuck with my bet on Forca, I was extremely confident with it and couldn't understand why the other was backed so strongly. End the day level. Have another debutant going up shortly in tomorrow's thread. Hope you've all had good days.
    1 point
  34. Just noticed Cheltenham have a good card for tomorrow
    1 point
  35. Karatsev to beat Tsitsipas at 2.62 with bet365 Fritz to beat Bautista at 3.20 with bet365 Khachanov to beat Djere at 1.66 with bet365 Popyrin to beat Andujar at 1.50 with bet365 Andujar hasn't played in the last month cause he got an injury in his last match in Chile while Popyrin has already won 2 matches here (vs Arneodo and Hanfmann). Fritz played 3 matches on clay in Cagliari while Bautista was playing in Miami, where he reached the SFs. Fritz has already beat Bautista on clay before so I think these odds are exaggerated. This will be the first match of Khachanov on clay this ye
    1 point
  36. Newmarket 4.30 HAN SOLO BERGER 5/1 £20 win BET365
    1 point
  37. April-19.5 1pt level stakes win only 13.15 N/A Druim Samhraidh 20/1 15.30 N/A Katie's Escape 14/1 16.30 New Illusionist 8/1 19.15 Fai Huntingtown 20/1 Prices as of now b365
    1 point
  38. Hi, thank you for your interest. These are all "Win Back" selections. Always listed in green. The other selections are for a different place backing system, you can get these by just dropping me an email. This confusion is the exact reason why I separated it out. Hope that is clear now.
    1 point
  39. 2 wins, yesterday. Judgement day today/tomorrow. Lots on the line and lots of bottling, I would have assumed. A few 50/50s that I like today but I'm going to limit the "feeling bets" to an accy and just go with the one. Selt to beat Donaldson. Selt looks bang in form right now and although Donaldson has a perfect record against him, I'm not sure we'll see a better time for Selt to play Scott. Also, I'm going to stick a couple of points on a boosted bet with Paddy for the main competition (these Quallies don't count) and it's for a century in every match. 5pts M.Selt to beat S.Donalds
    1 point
  40. compound interest, the most powerful force in the universe!
    1 point
  41. If you watch it again,you will see a guy with glasses in the background, keep edging closer and watching intently. Thats Robert (Sir Bob) Cooper, now At The Races presenter. I loved that line from Barney to Big Mac, when he said " You owe me I saved you from the gutter" and Big Mac sheepishly replies "I know, I know" and then Barney says..." and that Matt Chapman, he owes everybody" hahahaha. Priceless
    1 point
  42. Yeah, I mean the first thing is that they might not get to play today if the rain hangs around. Karatsev has upset potential for sure and Tsitsipas will get under pressure. He's the classier player and I'd probably even back him under different circumstances. It's his first match here, though, so Karatsev has the advantage on that front. I wouldn't be surprised by Karatsev winning the first set and then losing or something. If I had to back something, I'd look for backing Karatsev to win a set or cover some sort of a games handicap.
    1 point
  43. Today will be the first clay match of Tsitsipas but Karatsev had his first one yesterday as well. I've watched yesterday's match between Karatsev and Musetti. Cannot say that I was impressed by Karatsev. I'd rather say that was unpleasantly impressed by the weak game of Musetti. He just was overpowered by the strong hits of the Russian. Tsitsipas is good on clay. He has beaten on clay such figures and Zverev, Nadal, Rublev, Garin (who is good on clay). It will depend of the motivation and mind state of Tsitsipas but for sure he will be challenge few levels above Musetti. I wou
    1 point
  44. I agree. Some of those offers are really good, so at least some bookies are at least 'giving back' to the average punter. Back in the day you were paid out 1/4 1-4 places. No enhancements, no bonuses andif you backed AP, there was no such thing as non runner no bet a week before the race. A lot of you guys over there in UK do not realize how lucky you are with the bookies. Because I am in a different jurisdiction, I am restricted and choice is limited. My main bookie NEVER has any bonuses or place enhancements and its like betting in the 80's with them. The National for example I got
    1 point
  45. @Barnes1882I'm not sure how you allocate the points to your selections and increasing stakes in points does not look a good way to increase profitability. A better way in my humble opinion is to increase the value of the points e.g. if things are really going well and your bank is increasing then perhaps increase the value of your £10 per point by say 10% to £11 per point. In this way you may gently take advantage of the 8th wonder of the world according to Albert Einstein, compound interest. This was the only type of recommendation of justifiably increasing stakes as proposed by Phil Bull
    1 point
  46. Multitude of things mate to be honest and it's very time consuming. Last winning mark, current mark, record at the track, trainer form, trainer course record, distance travelled, watch their last race if I really like them and few other things. Then after all of that I look at my horses and if a few places like Timeform etc all agree, and I mean all agree and the movement is right in the betting, then I will back it. Don't get it right every time but doing pretty well currently.
    1 point
  47. sorry about that was kingston mimosa note to self dont pot when pissed lol
    1 point
  48. No nothing stood out today so just relaxing and watching the National instead
    1 point
  49. Cardiff vs Blackburn Apologies for the last minute preview. Easter holidays with the kids so chaos has ensued! Cardiff take on Blackburn in this 3pm BST kick-off on Saturday afternoon from the Cardiff City Stadium. Play-off hopes are fading for the home team so a win is vital if they are to keep that dream alive against this travelling team that have probably done enough to survive this season but will be wondering why on earth they're not battling at the other end of the table with the quality within their squad. Cardiff suffered a humiliating 5-0 defeat to Sheffield Wednesday last
    1 point
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