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** July Naps Competition Result: 1st Gary66, 2nd BBBC, 3rd kenisbusy, 4th Johnrobertson. KO Cup Winner tonythepaint. Most Winners Budgie65: **

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Showing content with the highest reputation on 12/06/2020 in all areas

  1. Let's hope some clever fog moves in to replace it ? 1.40 Punch - BATTLEOVERDOYEN 7/1 ew bet365 last night , now 5's. Beat Easy Game & Samcro in Grade 2 at Down Royal over 19f on yeilding 36 days ago , 3/4 Mullins runners may need the run Chris's Dream back 3.5f in trip from Grade 1 at Down Royal represents the biggest threat.
    5 points
  2. Ten Pointers to better punting Having been a punter for the best part of 40 years and finally now become successful at it I thought it would be interesting and hopefully of some use to share some of my thoughts/ideas. So here are ten points that you can digest and then agree or disagree with. 1. Keep a figure of EVERY bet you have. Be it on a spread sheet or in a pocket notebook. It really does make you become more disciplined as to how much you’re actually winning or losing. We’ve all got that friend who has told us or gone to social media to show us their big win which is fantastic, we all love to see these bookie bashing bets but what about the losers? You’ll be surprised how easily it is to whittle away winnings without realising. I actually work on a week to week basis in that I try and win every week and will do a figure at the end of the week to run forward to the yearly one and then start afresh on the next Monday. 2. Watch as much racing as you can. It’s not like the (good?) old days when you needed reels of video tape to record races you can access replays of the day’s races in various ways. There’s nothing like watching the race with your own naked eye and making your opinion rather than someone else’s. I personally subscribe to the Racing Post ultimate monthly service which for £34.95 monthly gives me access to all the race replays as well as access to the digital paper the night before which actually breaks down to just over a pound a day which if you’re serious about making money at the game is nothing. 3. Follow Twitter !! If you don’t already sign up and follow as many trainer, jockeys, punters, journalists etc. that are horse racing related. You’ll be surprised how many gems you actually pick up about a horse’s well being or not. Nowadays many trainers use this medium to break news of injuries and have columns with bookmakers. Absorb as much information as you can, you’ll never know when it may come in handy. 4. Become a weather forecaster! The most important factor in finding winners in my opinion is the ground. I don’t believe the old saying that good horses go on any ground. To me that’s nonsense! Most horses have a preference and if you can find that through the form book, or breeding, or trainer stable files then use it to your advantage. With 48 hour declarations here to stay by the looks of things just remember when placing a bet does this horse handle/like the likely ground conditions? One of my most used website's is the Met Office one !! 5. Stable form can be so important. A bit of an obvious one this but if a trainer is on the cold list then I would seriously be shying away from having a go on one of his or hers. On the flip side if a trainer has hit a streak of form then we can bet with much more confidence. Oh and its not just winners we should be looking at as trainers can be in form without hitting the number one spot all the time. I like to look at the Racing Post trainers last 14 days runners and dismiss any big price runners but look closely at their runners under 8/1 and how they have they run. If a trainer has had 0 winners from his last 20 runners but 14 of those were 20/1 or bigger but the 6 that were prominent in the betting were all placed I think you could safely say that they are in good form. 6. Official Handicap ratings are important. I love analysing each horse’s handicap mark and its fascinating when they find a winning mark that he or she can win off. We may find that they then struggle off of their new marks for a while (or even longer) but when they find themselves slipping back down to their ’winning’ mark and conditions suit then that’s the time to be very interested in them especially if they’ve shown enough in their previous run to give you encouragement. 7. Take the very best price. Again an obvious one but you’ll be surprised how many punters have just the one account who they’re very loyal to. Open as many accounts as possible and when having a bet use an odds comparison site (I personally use Oddschecker although bear in mind that two of the biggies in Ladbrokes and Corals have now left that site). For example constantly taking that extra half a point here and there will make a difference to your overall figure (see pointer 1.) and could make the difference from a winning day or a losing one. Also take advantage of the firms enhanced place terms with many offering these nowadays. I’m a bit torn whether to take 1-4th odds 1-2-3 or 1-5th odds 1-2-3-4 as the difference between 1-4th and 1-5th is surprisingly quite high. If I have the choice I tend to split my bet half and half so covering my stake if the horse does finish in the enhanced extra place spot. 8. Check collateral form. When analysing a race it’s always worth checking how their previous race/s have worked out especially in maidens. You may find a Newmarket maiden for example where five have run since and come nowhere near troubling the judge whilst in contrast at a lesser track say Lingfield may have a maiden where three winners have come out of the race. 9. Become an odds compiler! It’s not for everyone but I’ve been pricing races for 35 years plus now and it gives you a real feel for the race. If you havn’t tried before give it a try (I’ll do a further piece in the future on how to price a race). The benefit of it is that you are basically pitting your expertise against the major bookmaker’s odds compilers who have so many races to price nowadays that if you specialise on a particular race you may just find an edge. As an example If you believe Horse A is a 6/4 chance in your opinion and the bookmakers price him up at 2/1 then if you’re confident in your own ability you’ll be more than happy to take half a point over your price. It’s worth doing if you havn’t done it before. 10. Read as much as you can. Nowadays there’s so many publications that can help punters none more so than the excellent Stable files that can be found in the Racing Post or Weekender. The Attheraces website also has several features on trainer’s thoughts on their horses. Professional punter Mark Holder recently tweeted that he thought that these ‘stable files’ should be dismissed but I totally dis-agree and have backed many a winner on something a trainer has said in such copy about a certain horse’s ability. As I mentioned at the beginning of this piece, I’ve been a punter for over 40 years (my first ever bet was a £1 win ante-post bet placed by my Mum on my behalf when I was 16 on an unraced Vincent O’Brien 2yo called Try My Best for the 2000 Guineas that I had read about in the Sporting Life at 66/1! And for those of you that don’t know the horse he went unbeaten through his 2yo career and ended up at Newmarket on 2000 Gns day an odds on shot only to trail in last and be retired! I think the anticipation throughout the Winter of him winning is probably the reason why I still love an ante-post bet to this day). Everyday I learn something new about this great game and the day I think I know everything is the day I’ll give it all up. I hope you enjoyed this feature on better betting and feel free to comment below on anything you agree or disagree about. The Brigadier
    3 points
  3. Punchestown card under threat from thick fog Course update at midday !
    3 points
  4. Harry, I agree with everything you say. Over the last 10 years, I haven't been a loser, but it's true that I've played less. In this thread, I am a loser. I've lost about 40% of my bank, that's really huge. I've never had so much loss for so few bets. But it's not over yet ! My goal is to reach 2k$ in December 2021. It will be necessary to succeed in winning the bets and to advance in this project. I still believe in it. I haven't lost everything ! It's going to take a long time to get back up but I'm going to make it. I will better select my bets and win as I already did. My strongest sports are Tennis / Football / Cricket / Snooker . So I'm going to keep playing like this. But I realize that I have lost a lot due to snooker handicaps, so I'm not going to forget that. I will change my bets, because I lost. Max bet : 30$. I hope I'll be able to come back up slowly. That's the goal now. I hope I could say I was really unlucky but I've reached the goal. I think it's really possible, because every bet I play is analyzed and the ones I lost could have been won. For example, Bet 4,9,10,13,18,19,21,22. It's still unbelievable.
    2 points
  5. All prices Bet365: 12.01 Southwell - 1pt e/w Navajo Dawn @ 8/1 All of its best form has come here with both career victories coming over course and distance and off higher marks than this. Was badly hampered at the start here on his last visit here which is always going to be tough to recover from at this venue, for all he stayed on to finish respectably. With more luck at the beginning of the contest, with him edging down the weights and those ahead of him that day sneaking up, I think he could go well at a decent price. 12.25 Kelso - 1pt e/w Pass Rusher @ 12/1 Has bits and pieces of nice form including 2nd in a novice event when finishing a place ahead of a now 118-rated horse. A similar run here going handicapping off 105 would see him go close and his stamina has just been stretched over 2m4f the last twice, including on really testing ground at Hexham last time. The return to 2 miles will suit and I think he can outrun the odds if handling the conditions. 12.31 Southwell - 1pt e/w Professor Galant @ 15/2 Looks ready for the return to the minimum trip here having pulled hard over 6f the last twice. Both efforts were decent however behind nice enough types and the saddle slipped last time as well. Definitely has the speed for 5f, has form around here and looks a big price now facing handicaps. 1.46 Southwell - 1pt e/w Mister Freeze @ 12/1 Has been running okay lately including on turf where he's not as good and shaped with some credit at Lingfield last time, keeping on without threatening. His best form has come at Southwell however and is in decent enough heart to suggest he can threaten back at this venue. Was a c&d winner off 3lbs lower on his last visit and looks capable of getting involved at a double figure price. 2.02 Kelso - 1pt e/w Morozov Cocktail @ 14/1 I think this one is interesting upped in trip today having shaped okay in a novice event last year and seemingly needing the run/finding the trip too sharp when returning over two miles when last seen. Has plenty of stamina in the pedigree to suggest this test will suit and still very unexposed. 2.55 Southwell - 1pt e/w Milldean Felix @ 25/1 Hasn't run over a trip this short for a while but can race handy over 1m2f so I'm hoping the speedier test here won't completely ruin his chance. Usually runs a race from the front and his best form has come at this track. Understandably needed the run after over a year off last time out but still wasn't disgraced and at a big price now stripping fitter I'll chance it.
    2 points
  6. Hi mate, unlucky with the recent run, sometimes happens. As I’ve been known to lament about my own form, a blind monkey throwing darts from a unicycle could reasonably expect to pick more winners! That said, I think you need to consider the possibility, for the time being at least, that you are a losing punter. No shame in that, most are. Nothing wrong with viewing betting as a hobby where the money you lose is the cost of admission, while aiming to improve by reducing how much you lose and eventually edging into profit. One thing I’d ask you is what do you perceive to be your edge over the bookies, across all the sports you're betting on? Do you just look at an event and back what you fancy as long as the odds don’t strike you as too short or are you pricing things up in advance and looking for prices that are bigger than your assessment? Your approach still seems a little too scattergun to succeed. Based on my own long and sometimes costly experience I’d say you need to specialise and find a way of setting your own odds in advance for your chosen markets. Value is a complex and controversial topic but I don’t think that many would disagree that you need to improve your understanding and assessment of it, based on your posting to date, if you want to start reducing your losses and eventually get into the black. Good luck with your future bets, hopefully you hit a hot streak that makes it look like I don’t know what I’m talking about!
    2 points
  7. Dec +39 Few extra for me 1put level stakes win only 13.00 Kel Gypsy Lee Rose 12/1 Lost 14.02 Kel The Silver Prince 20/1 Lost 15.20 Kel Coole Hall 16/1 Lost 15.40 Pun Ambitious Fellow 40/1 Nr Prices as of now all b365 - 3 Dec +36
    2 points
  8. Yes all the best action over in Ireland. Some race the John Durkan ?. Fancy Min myself , hes won the race the past two years and five from five on the back of an absence . Won't be any gimme though that's for sure.
    2 points
  9. Thank you , it turned into quite a day. Used the b365 tv 4/1 offer on Benson @ 6/1 . Nap also won . Exceptional days dont happen that often unfortunately
    2 points
  10. Fader

    Scottish Open

    Starts in a matter of hours really if you think about it I'm thinking Trump and Robertson will both withdraw. I'm only guessing but even if they don't it's not going to be a priority event for them now. alot of selections but 14pts staked and I think if my hunch does come true it will be worth having one of these big prices on board 2pts E/W K.Wilson to win Scottish Open 11/1 paddypower 1pt E/W J.Higgins to win Scottish Open 18/1 betvictor 1pt E/W G.Dott to win Scottish Open 50/1 betvictor ------------------------------------------------------------------- 0.5pts E/W Yuelong to win Scottish Open 70/1 paddypower 0.5pts E/W A.McGill to win Scottish Open 70/1 paddypower 0.5pts E/W M.Gould to win Scottish Open 125/1 paddypower 0.5pts E/W L.Brecel to win Scottish Open 150/1 betfair 0.5pts E/W S.Donaldson to win Scottish Open 150/1 betfair 0.5pts E/W K.Maflin to win Scottish Open 150/1 betfair
    1 point
  11. Kane assist landed at 7/2 to minimise losses. 2 short on the cards although one more could’ve landed the 16/1 shot with both Kane and Son scoring. Kane assist bet worth following while the price remains significantly higher than his anytime scorer price.
    1 point
  12. Upsides at the last I thought we had it but not to be unfortunately
    1 point
  13. Most of the jumping action in Ireland tomorrow. No Nicky Henderson runners so I'll select one from my young handicappers system in the 3.10 at PUNCHESTOWN. ARVERNE - 7/4. A 5yo, this is the youngest horse in the race and last ran 54 days ago.
    1 point
  14. When are the accounts due, doesn’t say in the article, assume they have had their year end to tie in with the football season, unless they are going for 31st December. Also depends on payments for the hotel complex and furlough. Tier 3 still up there in Lancashire can’t see that changing even with the likely vaccine, think we will see another spike over/after Xmas. That will probably see us through to end of Feb early March. How long can the cash last, the Premier League money will probably cover 1 or 2 months. Bit surprised haven’t already seen a problem with clubs having wage issues, or could that explain Saturday?
    1 point
  15. waggy

    2020 Finish continued

    1705 result: Both scored. Won £87.75 Profit to date £482.72
    1 point
  16. waggy

    2020 Finish continued

    1704 result: Leicester 2-1. Won £105 Profit to date £394.97
    1 point
  17. Hello Alley Cat, I don't know what to make of the 6-3 drubbing the Wunderers had yesterday, none of their fans know what to make of it either, no doubt it will be causing panic in the ranks of the fans and the Management. Many of them are now reflecting on the 4 previous back to back wins they had in November, wundering what went wrong yesterday. Those 4 games saw Bolton pick up more points than the other 12 games they'd played this season, figure that one out. As mentioned before though it's because of results like this that "Bookmakers don't live in Council Houses". One of the Wunderers supporters told me Port Vale haven't scored 6 goals anywhere since '87 I was thinking he meant 1887 I was a bit surprised when he said 1987 !!! it's one for the record books that's for sure. Port Vale had 14 shots, 11 on target !!! that's got to tell you how far off the ball Bolton's defenders were, of those 11 shots on target 6 were goals, of the other 5 it was down to a couple of brilliant saves by Gilks or it would have at least 2 that any other day would have gone in. It wasn't one of those games where the goalie was having a bad day, Gilks did what he could, the defenders were atrocious and mid fielders should be in the dole queue this morning, let alone doing a Sunday morning stint. I'm not on my own to say I've never seen a teams fortunes turn around as dramatically as this game went, a memorable event, in more ways than one. As you say the December games don't look gift wrapped for the Wunderers, maybe their cookie has crumbled, time will tell, but... As for the relegation bet, BetVictor have gone 80/1 against Bolton, I'm tempted to throw a few more quid in at that price, they obviously haven't factored in that the club may well go back into Administration, that's what the bet is all about. https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-2/relegation My bets were placed before a game was played this season, so the results so far if anything are a bonus, thankfully they aren't topping the league with the 33 points that Newport have bagged so far. Don't forget that ALL the Bookies had Bolton at 5/1 Fav's to win L2, so most folks would have expected them to be on 30 points or so right now. Of the 22 points Bolton have, 12 of them almost miraculous, take 17 points off that and they are still 1 point behind Southend, and 14 points adrift of Stevenage, Bradford and Barrow, would you lay me 80/1 that the Wunderers would pull 14 points back from ANY of the above ? They'd need 5 wins to do that, while the other relegation candidates bag none, I really can't see that happening. So the bet actually looks better now than it was before the season started, they haven't bagged enough points to avoid relegation IF they go bust, and I'll take 80/1 against that happening any day of the week. I'll be looking for a copy of Football Ventures 12 month financial statement, that's due to be filed within a week or so, that will tell us if the bilge pumps are keeping the ship afloat. https://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/sport/18912637.wanderers-appoint-cowgills-auditors-new-financial-accounts-draw-closer/ If that reads as I expect I'll be taking as much of the 80/1 as I can get off Gibraltar Victor. I'd let you know "soon after" ?
    1 point
  18. Bet 4 NAC Breda v FC Dordrecht Over 0.5 Goals 10.67 @ 1.03
    1 point
  19. Spurs v Arsenal: >4.5 cards shown at 6/5 365 and >5.5 cards shown at 5/2 888. Plenty of 11/10 and 23/20 about the >4.5 bet. For me, the first bet should be odds on and the second 2/1 at the very most. Positives are recent history in the fixture and the fact that the spreads are high enough to suggest those prices are generous. Atkinson not the ideal ref appointment but he has to respond to how the game plays out and I trust him to do the job assuming the teams play as expected. Spurs to score a penalty at 9/2 365 or Fred. Ok, a bit of a muggy interest bet but my eye was drawn to his propensity to award pens to Arsenal's opponents (15 in 60 games, next highest being 9). Kane to assist a goal at 7/2 PP. Not the 8/1 on offer a few games back but still seems big. Kane and Son both to score and each team >1 card at 16/1 Hills. A doubled odds offer that seems a little generous, certainly beats the combined best available odds.
    1 point
  20. Hi @Skywalker2020 The each way terms were 1/5th the odds so you broke-even on the bet so it is not classified as a winning bet. The P/L figure (-£2.50) remains the same as the day before.
    1 point
  21. Fair enough mate, no issue as long as you're enjoying it in the long run and betting money you can afford to lose. Do this long enough and you will see "impossible" runs both winning and losing. In the long run the bottom line tells you how well or badly you've done and luck becomes irrelevant. Keep looking at your bet history and learning from it. My light bulb moment was switching from being a buyer to a seller on the spreads. The obvious next thing for me is to carry that through to a successful laying strategy but that's something for next year. It's a sweeping generalisation but with a huge basis in reality; mug money predominantly buys or backs while shrewder money lays or sells.
    1 point
  22. waggy

    2020 Finish continued

    1705. £25 Dbl: Vardy @21/20, Kane @6/5 Both To Score Anytime
    1 point
  23. India , Australia , England . 3 countries I like watch on t20. Very strong
    1 point
  24. Trainer in form and Brian Hughes booked ,hopefully a good choice. I was on last night at much bigger than 12's , price is plummeting . Good luck
    1 point
  25. Fader

    UK Championship

    2pts N.Robertson Highest break, most centuries and Trump most 50+ 11/4 skybet
    1 point
  26. Hi mate I'll answer you in the evening Because I'm French and it's complicated to reply ??
    1 point
  27. Yeah, it's a simple case of the 4-average provides a longer snapshot of their performance levels but 2-average can show if there's been any recent increase or decrease in performances levels over the past couple of games. I would recommend doing your own research alongside these ratings though because the ratings can still be influenced by player absences or other circumstances that the ratings can't account for.
    1 point
  28. Fader

    UK Championship

    I was tempted on the 7/1 silks but I find that Trump hits more 50+ where as Robbo hits more centuries so I was looking for "Robertson to have highest break and most centuries and Trump most 50+ breaks" if you see that anywhere please let me know? good luck
    1 point
  29. KELSO 12:25 Vengeur De Guye 7/2 win KELSO 13:00 HANDICAP CHASE Caventara 3/1 win KELSO 14:45 Mighty Thunder 15/2 e/w 3 Places KELSO 15:20 Bob Mahler 17/2 e/w 4 Places plus e/w yankee Top
    1 point
  30. mcsilks

    UK Championship

    What a great tournament this has been. 2 bets for the final based on the meetings between these players in the last few years which have produced some very high scoring snooker. (+4.5) century breaks @ 11/10 paddypower Neil Robertson to have highest break, most 50 or more breaks & win @ 7/1 paddypower For the 2nd bet, Robertson has been the more impressive scorer of the two in this tournament and is back to his best whereas Judd has been playing at the top of his B game. If he doesn't improve on that, Robertson will win and the bet should take care of itself.
    1 point
  31. still priced up at 40/1 with betfair, though generally only 20s-25s with most other bookies! Interestingly priced up at only 16/1 for Paddy Power chase on 27th Dec. Somebody knows something!!!! Hopefully the breathing problem isnt serious, otherwise I fear the Christmas plots have been scupered
    1 point
  32. Cornut Chauvinc v Lopez San Martin, M15 Madrid, 1.90 with bet365
    1 point
  33. Mourinho has never lost a home game against Arsenal in his previous 10 games and we can not help but see this record today, Sunday. Arsenal's form in the Premier League at the moment is poor, while Tottenham is flying and can claim a title challenge. Add the return of the fans to the pitch and the Spurs will rub their hands in anticipation of this match as they seem to add more suffering to Arsenal Tottenham Hotspur vs Arsenal @@ Tottenham, odds 2,00
    1 point
  34. Fader

    UK Championship

    It's the final we all expected then, really. Judd Trump takes on Neil Robertson for the third final this year. These two are very closely matched, even for their centuries as they both chase the 800 mark. Judd Trump is one century clear of the match-up and has won the 2 ties this year but of the two this week, it's Trump that looks to have some frailties. Robertson is definitely more successful from long range at the moment. Trump missed quite a few against Lu Ning from range but lucky for him Lu didn't punish him often enough. Robbo should have beaten Trump the last time they played. He was 7-4 up in the English Open final and he was 4-2 up in the German Masters final so he needs to play like it's any other match. Robertson has had the highest break in the last five matches between these two, not including Championship League matches. I think Robertson wins tomorrow and I think he does it with a couple of centuries and the highest break. It's a "first to 10" tomorrow. We could easily see 17-18 frames and it could become a great final. I can see there being a good 4-5 centuries in this. I don't think like betting on who pots the first ball because i may aswell roll a dice but the 15/2 on Robbo doing that, winning and with the most century breaks is probably worth it if you think the other two aspects are going to transpire. We aint seeing 10 centuries tomorrow but 55/1 it's abit of fun. Selby and Robertson had 7 in 11 frames so it's possible to get 10 in 17-18-19 frames. It's not going to happen but incase this final truly catches fire, half a point. 5pts N.Robertson to have the highest break evens betvictor 1pt N.Robertson to pot the first ball, most century breaks and win 15/2 paddypower 0.5pts 10 or more century breaks 55/1 paddypower
    1 point
  35. 1 point
  36. Both Bet´s are green - so good Day in Premier League on Saturday
    1 point
  37. The Electrician ew please 11.55 Kelso Yes baby! 2nd 150/1
    1 point
  38. Man Utd (2) 2.05 Chelsea (1) 1.55 14pts please
    1 point
  39. Mansouri v Droguet, M15 Monastir, 1.72 with bet365
    1 point
  40. CHELSEA (1) 1.55 50% Single
    1 point
  41. I have wanted to invest in the stockmarket for years but hadn't the confidence or money to do so or the know how if i'm honest but i took the plunge near the end March after covid struck and prices fell through the roof as i thought if i don't do it now i never will. I am hooked. I am a total novice but doing ok i think probably should stick to ftse safe stock but i like a gamle and have some aim stock. Have gambled on a Hydrogen stock which was and still is in early stages finding it time consuming and hard going but loving the challenge. I wish we had a shares thread in PL i think we did years ago but i wasn't into it then i am now!
    1 point
  42. I think a nap is the best bet of the day, not necessarily the most likely winner of the day. I assume that the day's shortest priced horse is the most likely winner of the day. I often have quite a lot of selections each day often priced from odds on to long odds against. I treat them all as being value bets. I have selected naps at prices from 50/1 down to 1/33 (I received plenty of ridicule for that one!). To me, they were all value bets. Out of interest in the 3 days of December there have only been 2 win naps at 50/1 or above and these are from different players so this would suggest that people are not picking random long shots just to win the competition. Also if I look at the winners for 2020 the average strike rate is 20% which again would indicate that it is not random long shots that are winning the competition. From next month I might include a random long shot in the competition, don't worry, if this does come top it won't win a prize !
    1 point
  43. I enjoy horse racing full stop, although losing runs can get you down, but yes money is the main objective, even if you only win a few quid. I’ve probably came across the wrong way, and to be honest I’m not fussed whether the rules change or not, but I wish you luck with your approach . To narrow my selections down I only bet on class 2 and no higher than Grade 2. Basically that’s what I’ve done this week, I’ll scan cards and pick a race out and put the selection as nap in the nap thread, although I probably won’t see the month out as I’ll miss a few days then think sod it.
    1 point
  44. Surely the primary object of the exercise in backing horses is to make money and that is my point i make money by napping value, the old adage that horses don't know what price they are rings true. like i said above i have made about £1,000 quid just on my naps to a tenner, how many short price "nappers" on here can boast the same? You say and i quote "if its your thing" my thing is to make money out of the fun of watching and studying horse races. i respect what you are saying about you dont look at racing every day so why not just look at 1 race a day and pop one in the comp ad hoc takes only seconds and at least it gives you a shout.
    1 point
  45. If napping your selections at big prices is your thing then fair play to you. If you put the work and effort into finding big priced selections that you think are overpriced or can out run their odds, then that cannot be knocked. I’m as against short odd naps as I am big priced naps. If someone is napping ridiculously short odds all the time then where is the work in that, and where’s the value . 4/5 is as low as I’d go with a nap. Saying that a nap is meant to be the most likely winner of the day isn’t it? Personally I don’t like doing naps because I don’t look at all the races so how would I know which is the most likely winner of the day. I suppose nap can mean different things to different people. When I do my selections I always have one horse in my head who I think is my best chance of winning some money that day, so that’s my own personal nap. I’ve entered this months nap competition, but I doubt I’ll see it through because I just don’t look at racing everyday.
    1 point
  46. Quite interesting thread, Long shots v short odds nap, A separate yearly total prize is a good idea, personally i would increase the minimum selection requirement to 20 or 25 from the current 15. it would stop people from winning by not napping. the suggestion that people napping long shots "for luck" is valid in some cases but the proof is in the pudding, 10 quid on every one of my naps since i joined (4 months) would have netted you about £1000 i have been in profit for each of the last 4 months and if it wasn't for my 50/1 dead heating for 4th place on the last day of september i would have topped the table 2 out of the four months i have been on here, can anyone napping short prices say the same? @Villa Chris @The Equaliser i occasionally do nap a short one but only where i think its my only option. i detected a bit of snobbery on some of the comments, i put more work into my racing and selecting than people would have others believe. One thing everybody should know but some don't like to admit, is you cant make a profit backing favs that's for sure.
    1 point
  47. Forest Green @ 2.37 10pt single
    1 point
  48. Written Thursday December 25th, 2020 at 11 a.m. Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed) Last week, we had a couple of 5-star picks, which was highly unusual! Bucs +3.5 vs Chiefs (won the bet, but deserved to lose in my opinion); Giants -5.5 at Bengals (lost the bet, but we got screwed by: a) Daniel Jones’ injury; b) a TD on a kickoff return by Cincy; c) a bogus PI penalty that allowed a garbage TD late in the fourth quarter). Our record on 5-star picks: 3-2 this season 8-4 past three years Overall, last week was a lucrative one: a 4-2 record on official picks and a perfect 2-0 on leans. We have been on fire recently with a 10-5-2 ATS record since Week 10. Let’s keep rolling, folks!!! PICK #1 (4 STARS): CLEVELAND BROWNS +6 AT TENNESSEE TITANS I’ve said it a few times this year, and I’ll say it again. In my opinion, the Titans are a good team to bet as underdogs, but they’re a good team to fade as favorites. As a matter of fact, they have beaten the spread just two times the last seven games they were established as favorites. My main concern about this game is Cleveland’s pass defense. They were already without Greedy Williams, and now their other starting cornerback Denzel Ward seems on the wrong side of questionable for Sunday. That could open up the field for A.J. Brown. Other than that, I like the Browns here. To me, the spread is way too high. Cleveland should be fine running the ball against Tennessee, whose defense has been average. Meanwhile, the Browns are fairly strong defending the run and they are welcoming back stud defensive end Myles Garrett this weekend. The revenge factor comes into play as well. I’m sure Baker Mayfield and company remember last year’s season opener, a game in which Cleveland got hammered 43-to-13 at home against Tennessee. Mayfield threw three interceptions in that game, but that won’t happen this time. For these reasons, I’m backing Cleveland as 6-point underdogs as my top play in Week 13. PICK #2 (3 STARS): SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS +1 VS BUFFALO BILLS San Francisco’s defense is quickly getting back to form. After undergoing a rash of injuries, they have gotten some players back, which has shown on the field. Last week, they bottled up a good Rams offense and allowed just 14 first downs. Buffalo QB Josh Allen usually makes a mix of great and bad plays. I expect him to make a few mistakes that will cost his team this Monday. He is also still missing wide receiver John Brown; the offense is good, but not as great when Brown is out of the lineup. I have spoken a few times this year about how researchers have shown that peak athletic performance occurs during the late afternoon or early evening. For this reason, a West Coast team gets an advantage when playing a night game against a team from the East Coast. Each team’s record on Monday Night Football is at opposite ends: Buffalo is 0-3-1 ATS versus 13-3 for the Niners. San Francisco also holds an impressive 7-3 ATS record at home when facing a team with a winning record. The key to this game will be San Francisco’s running game who should be able to exploit a weak Buffalo run defense, who ranks 27th in the league in terms of yards allowed per carry. With Raheem Mostert back from an injury, I believe he will run wild and cause headaches to the Bills. PICK #3 (3 STARS): LOS ANGELES RAMS -2.5 AT ARIZONA CARDINALS Kyler Murray’s throwing shoulder is hurt. He didn’t look as sharp as usual last week in New England. Coincidence or not, he ran for a season-low five times both of the past two weeks. I suspect he doesn’t want to take more hits to lower the risk of aggravating his injury. After a hot start, the Cards are definitely stumbling. They have won just one of their last four matchups, and the lone win should have been a loss, if not for a miracle Hail Mary pass on the last play of the game against the Bills. Jared Goff tends to struggle when he feels pressure, otherwise he is super efficient. I expect him to have a clean pocket this Sunday, given Arizona’s pass rush who is not that great. I also like the three-headed monster at the running back position for the Rams: Darrell Henderson, Malcolm Brown and rookie Cam Akers. Los Angeles has rebounded with a win after each of their three losses in 2020. Also note that the Rams have beaten the spread the last five times they made a trip to Arizona. Another reason for taking the Rams in this contest is the mismatch on defense. Los Angeles’ defense has been great, both against the run and the pass. As for Arizona, they have a middle of the pack defense. PICK #4 (2 STARS): INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -3 AT HOUSTON TEXANS The Colts are not intimidated from playing in Houston at all: they are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight meetings there. Indy is also a team that can rebound nicely after poor performances. Indeed, they have posted an incredible 6-0-1 ATS record after double-digit home losses. Last week, they got beaten up 45-26 against the Titans. I am aware that the Texans will benefit from three additional days of rest after playing on Thanksgiving, but the team suffered a HUGE blow when their top wide receiver (Will Fuller V) and their top cornerback (Bradley Roby) got hit with six-game suspensions for violating the league’s PEDs policy. With Randall Cobb already out and Kenny Stills being waived about a week ago, that will put the wide receiver depth to the test. I expect Indy’s defense to respond strongly after such a poor outing last week. With Deshaun Watson having less weapons at his disposal, he’ll need to do a Superman impersonation in order to keep his team afloat. I don’t think it will happen. Houston’s defense has been awful both against the run and the pass, while the Colts should get running back Jonathan Taylor back. I am worried about the Colts possibly being without their star left tackle Anthony Castonzo, but I’m still putting my money on Indy to do everything they can to keep up with the Titans for the AFC South title. PICK #5 (2 STARS): SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -10 VS NEW YORK GIANTS Last Monday, I posted an alert in my Facebook group and to people on my mailing list about a great bargain. The Seahawks were tagged as 7.5-point favorites at Bet365 at the time, while some bookies had a line of 10 points. I put a fairly big bet, then I let everyone know about this nice deal, and the line moved to 9, and then 10 points within an hour. No matter if the bet wins or loses, this was clearly a good value wager. Now that the dust has settled, I still think Seattle -10 points is an enticing play. According to the latest reports, Daniel Jones seems unlikely to play. His backup, Colt McCoy, is simply horrible. He’s been bad throughout his 11-year career, and that’s not about to change. He couldn’t get the offense going last week against a weak Cincinnati defense. I love how Seattle matches up well with the Giants. With McCoy under center, New York will need their running game to get going, but that should prove very difficult considering the Seahawks defense is 3rd in the NFL in terms of yards allowed per carry. That will force McCoy into long third downs, and the result will be catastrophic. On the other side of the ball, New York’s strength on defense is its run defense. Unfortunately for them, Seattle has a guy named Russell Wilson at quarterback who is ready to shred their pass defense. Seattle wins by at least two touchdowns and beats the spread. UNOFFICIAL PICKS For entertainment purposes, here are some leans for you: LEAN #1: Chargers +1 vs Patriots (This is a passing league, and there is a huge gap between New England’s and Los Angeles’ passing offenses. Cam Newton is banged up and his team will be travelling through three time zones to play this game.); LEAN #2: Broncos +14 at Chiefs (The weakness of K.C.’s defense is its run defense, so I think Denver can find a way to run efficiently and run out the clock a little bit. On the other side of the ball, Denver’s pass defense is among the top 10 and could limit the damage against Mahomes and company. The Broncos are 1-9 ATS in the last 10 meetings with the Chiefs, but they are a perfect 7-0 ATS after scoring 14 points or less! Drew Lock will be back under center.); LEAN #3: Dolphins -11 vs Bengals (I hope Ryan Fitzpatrick remains the starter because he is better than Tua right now. Good luck to QB Brandon Allen against a stifling Dolphins pass defense! Miami could welcome back running backs Myles Gaskin and/or Salvon Ahmed); LEAN #4: Washington +8.5 at Steelers (Pittsburgh is not nearly as good as its record indicate. Man, they played badly against the Ravens last Wednesday! Washington is fighting hard every week and they are playing sound football for head coach Ron Rivera. It won’t be an easy task for the Steelers to beat them by 9 points or more). A big thank you for reading this column every week, I hope to help you beat your bookie! Professor MJ https://youtu.be/7RFlJpe3P4E
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  49. £20 Double: Norwich to win 1.95 Doncaster to win 2.05
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