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** July Naps Competition Result: 1st Gary66, 2nd BBBC, 3rd kenisbusy, 4th Johnrobertson. KO Cup Winner tonythepaint. Most Winners Budgie65: **

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Showing content with the highest reputation on 11/27/2020 in all areas

  1. Fair to say the 1st Round didn't go anywhere near as well as the 4th Qualifying Round and I was caught out a little by how many upsets there were. Hard to put an exact reason behind that, but I do think no crowds is a factor. The Non-League sides are always going to be up for it, but it was clear that the same couldn't be said of the Football League sides in the 1st Round. I have picked out 6 of the Non-League sides that I think can cause an upset over the weekend as well as putting up a 4 fold. If they all win then I might retire! Tips for now and the previews will follow. Don't forget Bet365 have their acca bonus and early payout if a team goes 2 in front if you want that safety net so I have put top price and Bet365 price if shorter. Morecambe v Solihull Moors A slight concern that Solihull have had a Covid enforced break and haven't played since November 11th, but this does look a game they can win to me. They were good in beating Scunthorpe in the previous round and although Morecombe are doing better than they are in League 2 there recent form isn't great. In the league they have only won one of their last 9 games and Solihull will be confident they can cause an upset. Peterborough v Chorley I am taking a bit of a flyer here, but I thought Chorley did superbly well in coming from 2 down to beat Wigan in the last round. I know Wigan had 10 men, but even so it was a hell of an effort. Peterborough lost a couple of games before beating Plymouth last time and that gives a bit of hope. Also I can't imagine this will be high up on the list of targets for them. The lack of home fans I think favoured the Non-League sides in round 1 and that is why we saw so many go through and Chorley do have it in them to cause an upset. I think they are in a bit of a false position in the National League North and I just can't make them as big as 18/1 so its worth a having a crack at that price. Mansfield v Dagenham & Redbridge Mansfield have only won once in the league all season and given Dagenham beat Grimsby in the previous round I think they could cause their League 2 hosts some issues here. They haven't played in nearly a couple of weeks and that will have helped them focus on this. They seem to be improving from earlier in the season and on their day the have the players to beat Mansfield. Bristol Rovers v Darlington Darlington caused an upset in Round 1 when beating League 1 Swindon and I think they can beat another League 1 side in Rovers. They have only picked up 2 points in their last 6 league games. 2 starts back they lost to Swindon and last time they only got a point at Wigan. Rovers' record against Non-League sides in the FA Cup hasn't exactly been the best in recent years either. Darlington had a couple of good wins in the league before losing to Bradford (Park Avenue) on Tuesday night, but I don't mind that because this is a much bigger game for them. They look over priced to me. Shrewsbury v Oxford City I would have preferred it if Shrewsbury hadn't announced their new manager on Friday as players will be looking to impress now, but with no win in 8 in the league they will still find this game tricky. City were superb in beating Northampton in the 1st Round and although their league form has taken a bit of a hit since, they have still been playing very well at times including when losing 3-2 to top of the table Dorking on Tuesday night. If they play as well as they did against Northampton I think they have got a real chance of reaching Round 3. Barnet v MK Dons Barnet are really struggling in the league this season and their performance against Burton in the 1st Round sticks out like a sore thumb. It was superb and they fully deserved to win. Sometimes you get teams who do well in the cup despite the fact they aren't anything special in the league and I just wonder if Barnet will be like that this season. MK Dons have only won 3 league games out of 14 this season and again it looks a match where we could see an upset. Acca Tranmere v Brackley get the action underway on BBC2 tonight and with Tranmere looking good at the moment I think they will be too strong for their National League North opponents. They have a new manager who has just taken over and he wont want a defeat in this. Kings Lynn scored with what was pretty much their only shot against Port Vale in Round 1 and I think Portsmouth will do a professional job on them. For the 3rd Round running I am trying to get Marine beat, but not being able to play since knocking out Colchester is hardly ideal. Havant are a very strong side as well. Boreham Wood have surprised me by their lack of goals in the league this season, but I can't see Canvey Island keeping them out. Canvey were very fortunate to knock out Banbury in the previous round and I would be disappointed if Wood blew this great opportunity to get to the 3rd Round Solihull 1pt @ 3/1 with Bet365 Chorley 1pt @ 18/1 with Betfair (14s with Bet365) Dagenham & Redbridge 1pt @ 9/2 with Bet365 Darlington 1pt @ 17/2 with Betfair (15/2 with Bet365) Oxford City 1pt @ 9/1 with Betfair (8/1 with Bet365) Barnet 1pt @ 4/1 with Bet365 Tranmere/Portsmouth/Havant & Waterlooville/Boreham Wood 2pts @ 3.1/1 with Bet365
    6 points
  2. All prices Bet365: 11.55 Doncaster - 1pt e/w Double W's @ 12/1 12.05 Southwell - 1pt e/w Princess Mayson @ 16/1 12.25 Doncaster - 1pt e/w Santon @ 33/1 12.45 Newbury - 1pt e/w Elusive Belle @ 8/1 1.25 Doncaster - 1pt e/w Royal Village @ 22/1 2.25 Newbury - 1pt e/w Cepage @ 8/1 3.35 Newbury - 1pt e/w Couer De Lion @ 8/1
    4 points
  3. One of National Hunt’s best Saturday’s is nearly upon us with the Newbury Ladbroke Trophy meeting at Newbury where with no rain forecast the ground is likely to ride unseasonably good for the time of year. We start the card with the 12.10 and a decent Mares listed hurdle where the most likely winner is Mrs Hyde who took the scalp of Verdana Blue at Wetherby and certainly won’t mind conditions. I’m not entirely convinced Verdana Blue is as good as she once was and with Mrs Hyde carrying a penalty I’ll be looking for some each way value elsewhere. Down at the bottom of the card is the Irish challenger POLITESSE, trained by Mrs Lorna Fowler and ridden by Robbie Power she’s smart having won a bumper, novice hurdle and running a highly promising 5th in a Grade 3 hurdle on her re-appearance where but for a bad blunder would have been placed. She’ll do for me each way against the likely favourite. POLITESSE 1 point each way @ 4/1betvictor Kalooki and Next Destination look the pair to concentrate in the 12.40 and with Kalooki having had the experience of winning at the track three weeks ago (2nd won since) I just favour over Next Destination who makes his fencing debut here but has some excellent hurdle form to his name. Hold That Note wouldn’t be far behind the big two and cant be easily dismissed. KALOOKI 1 point win @ 11/4 betvictor The 1.15 looks wide open with many having claims. JP McManus runs four here with perhaps Kapcorse being the most interesting having won this event by 10 lengths two years ago off of a 10lb lower mark but he has a 644 day absence to overcome. Court Master appeals each way – he ran credibly in a decent novice handicap chase at the course three weeks ago and is at the right end of the handicap. Plenty of others can be given a chance but I’ll stick with Michael Scudamore’s 7 year old. COURT MASTER ½ point each way @ 9/1 betfred One horse stands out in the next race – the 2m4f118yds handicap hurdle- Tom Lacey’s improver Tea Clipper who won cosily at Chepstow 7 weeks ago and despite a 7lb rise bounces off of good ground and will be hard to beat. Runner up to him at Chepstow that day was the Skelton’s Flash the Steel who re-opposes on 4lb better terms for a 2 1/4l beating so can make the frame. Nicky Henderson runs three with Champagne Platinum the most interesting. He blatantly failed to stay when last seen and he didn’t really convince last season as a chaser so back over the smaller obstacles here could be in his favour. On The Wild Side is a novice in his first handicap for Dr Newland and is also espected but for me it’s all about Tea Clipper on his favoured ground. TEA CLIPPER 2 points win @ 11/4 bet365 The 2.25 will always be known as the Gerry Feilden despite been re-named by sponsors Ladbrokes. Nicky Henderson ran Epatante in this last year when she blew the opposition away and ended up winning the Xmas Hurdle & Champion Hurdle so his representative Maries Rock has something to live up to here. She is unbeaten in a bumper and two novice hurdles impressing each time and was touted as a genuine Mares hurdle contender before her setback, this is what her trainer had to say about her in recent Racing Post Trainer file “She missed her big day in the mares' novice at Cheltenham after a stress fracture, which wasn't serious. She's summered well, has an enormous engine and is exciting. We've tinkered with her soft palate and hopefully she's top class”. No wonder why she’s been backed from as big as 4/1 at the 5 day declaration stage to her current odds of 6/4. She’ll be hard to beat off of 141 which incidentally is 3lb higher than Epatante ran off in this race last year. There’s some lovely animals in opposition mind including Botox Has a winner at Cheltenham already this season, Sebastopol who’s held in high regard by his trainer Tom Lacey, Milkwood who’s 4th in the Welsh Champion Hurdle looks a very good piece of form and Thyme White who’s been put up 11lb for his Chepstow romp. An outsider who looks overpriced is Seamus Mullins’ The Pink’n. She was 4l 2nd to Botox Has at Cheltenham and is now 4lb better off and then 3l behind Thyme White at Chepstow and now 5lb better off. Both Botox Has and Thyme White are priced around the 6/1 mark whilst The Pink’n is over three times the price a around the 20/1 mark. I’ll play Maries Rock to win and The Pink’n small ew. MARIES ROCK (below) 2 points win @ 7/4 betvictor THE PINK’N ½ point each way @ 22/1 betvictor I’ve dealt with the Ladbrokes Trophy earlier in the week and with the ground as predicted I’m happy enough to be on Secret Investor at 16/1 and The Black Op at 8/1. If you like Secret Investor mind you have to have an interest in Alan King’s Potterman who chased Secret Investor home at Chepstow and was just touched off in the Badger Beers Chase at Wincanton since. It’s a cracking race and lets just hope all 18 come back safely. One thing I would add is to shop around for the best place terms as most firms will be paying enhanced place terms. SECRET INVESTOR 1point e/w @ 16/1 (advised on Monday) BLACK OP 1point ew @ 8/1 (advised on Monday) POTTERMAN ½ point each way @ 20/1 betvictor The finale is the 3.35, a handicap chase for The Jim Joel Memorial Chase Trophy. Top weight Moonlighter ran a stormer on his re-appearance when running Graneteen a close 2nd in the Haldon Gold Cup. The winner is set to take on the best 2 milers in the land next weekend at Sandown and despite a 5lb weight rise he should run well. Western Miller was a long way back in 2nd behind the rejuvenated Rouge Vif at Cheltenham last time whilst Ibleo ran a close 2nd at Ascot first time out but all his form is on very soft ground so it’s anyone’s guess how he’ll handle livelier conditions here. A bit of value for me can be had with the Philip Hobb’s trained Zanza who ran here three times as a hurdler winning twice and finishing a close up 6th in last season’s Betfair Hurdle. He’s only had the two runs this season over fences but both times behind some decent types (2nd to Allmankind at Warwick last time) and should be ready too strike now with the Hobbs team in better form than earlier in the season. ZANZA 1 point each way @ 7/1 bet365
    3 points
  4. Newbury 1.50( money back 2nd or 3rd) Tea Clipper 16.78 Amour De Nuit 15.12 the latter offers the best value and is overpriced. Amour De Nuit 15/2 Newbury 2.25 Botox Has 20.9 Thyme White 18 the bookies have both of these bang on regarding prices. Might play Thyme White ew if he drifts out a bit more. Botox Has 5/1 Newbury 3.00 Copperhead ew 10/1 Had La Bague Au Roi and Beware The Bear rated just behind but just playing Copperhead as it’s ultra competitive.
    3 points
  5. 1-43 DONCASTER CONSTANCIO Donald McCain has his string in good form and this seven-year-old has maintained his consistency all season. He bumped into an a very unexposed Wild Max at Huntingdon last time and the pair pulled some half a dozen lengths clear of the third placed Rowland Ward. Tom Bellamy takes over in the saddle from Brian Hughes (who rides at Newcastle instead) and has ridden a few winners around here in the past. Constancio is the only course and distance winner in the line-up and he can make the most of that experience. 2-53 DONCASTER BYRON FLYER Byron Flyer won this race as a five-year-old back in 2016 and returns to attempt to regain his crown. He is certainly well handicapped on the best of his old form now that he is five pounds below his last winning mark. This is a significant drop in grade for the now nine-year-old and a return to genuine good ground will also be in his favour. He ran well in a listed handicap hurdle last time out so is certainly more than capable of making his presence felt here. Ian Williams has his string in decent form and it would come as no surprise if Byron Flyer bounced right back to his best here. 3-00 NEWBURY - LA BAGUE AU ROI Warren Greatrex’s mare could well be the forgotten horse here. It wasn’t too long ago that she was winning Grade One Novice Chases for fun. She will most definitely have needed her first run of the season where she finished fourth to Amalfi Doug at Perth back in September. She subsequently had wind surgery and was then raised in grade again to contest the Charlie Hall at Wetherby last month. She ran a fair enough race to finish fifth behind the re-opposing Vinndication and Aye Right. She is undefeated in three previous runs at Newbury, so her running style clearly lends itself well to this track and a return here could well rejuvenate her. Richard Johnson has ridden her to numerous wins in the past and it good to see him back on board this afternoon. As a mare she receives plenty of weight from some of her male counterparts, but definitely looks overpriced on the best of her old form.
    3 points
  6. Phantasmal couldn't follow up but fieldsman wins 9/1 taken / 11.5 BSP.
    3 points
  7. todays selectioons DONCASTER 11:55 Theflyingportrait 4/1 win DONCASTER 13:25 Dr Sanderson 3/1 win NEWBURY 14:25 San Benedeto 8/1 e/w 3 Places NEWBURY 15:00 Paisley Park 3/1 win plus e/w yankee
    3 points
  8. Hi fader , thanks for all the work you do ,you have me having a placed horse in the latest table - i think it finished fourth and out of the places cheers
    3 points
  9. Paisley ran well today which is great to see. Not quite grade A Paisley Park but close enough to show us he still has it. Thyme Hill is going to be a very tough horse to beat in the stayers hurdle though. Both will improve from that race. The winner was getting 3Ibs from Paisley Park and also that was a few pounds below what Paisley Park is capable of. Not ruling anyone else out of the stayers hurdle but the first two today will take some beating providing they get there fit and well. Big race in Ireland this weekend which will tell us more regarding fancies for this race.
    2 points
  10. Nearly didn't bother with a Trixie today but finally found some possibilities at Doncaster 11.55 Don Yccs Portocervo 5/2 12.25 Don French Paradoxe £2 win at 4/1 2.35 Don Jean Genie £2 win at 11/4 One £1 win Trixie = £4 = Poss return of £104.81 Other win bets: 12.45 Nb No bet but the Sporting press seem to point to Anemoi saying that Eritage was just a lucky winner last time out. I'll pass 2.25 Nb sully D'Or AA (what a complicated name) £1 win at 5/1 2.25 Nb San Benedeto £1 win at 8/1 3.00 Nb Paisley Park £2 win at 5.10 = £8.04 (hope he doesn't give me an irregular heart beat) 12.55 Don Ah Well £1 win at 8/1 1.25 Don Pogue £1 win at 4/1 2.00 Don Ballyfarsson 50p win at 66/1 2.00 Don Dieu Bennisse 50p win at 20/1 Multiples = £4 Singles = £11 Total stakes £15 Good luck to all those having a bet today. Newbury looks to be a very tricky proposition today ======================================================================================================== I had a bad feeling about today's racing and I was right. I had two seconds but as I don't back each way got no returns. Multiples = a loss of £4 c/fwd balance £615.94 (Bank £800). Top rated Multiples - £4 so a c/fwd loss of £7.75 Singles, a whopping loss of £11 sinks my balance to £138.18 (£400 Bank) Five meetings tomorrow in the UK. Four over the jumps and one All weather. Some class action at Newcastle and Newbury so fingers crossed I can find some good selections
    2 points
  11. Well done to Joe on the final leg win and getting enough league points to jump onto the podium. It certainly proved to be tight at the top and whilst muttley did make up some ground it wasn't quite enough to catch our leader. Congratulations to Ian who is this month's champion , a reversal of finishing positions for the top 2 from last month. Well done to our 3 winners and thank you to all who played this month, nice lockdown turnout again We'll have more of the same starting next week for December and it looks like we'll be able to get the 4 games in just in time to be let out for Christmas. NEW Instructions for League Winners: 1st @ian309 £75 + PL Mug and Pens 2nd @muttley £45 3rd @Burnley Joe £30 Please could you PM me on here with your Paypal account email so I can pass instructions on to Kayla who is dealing with the payouts now. Winner (ian309) - please also provide address if you'd like to claim the PL Mug & Pens. ☕?️ Payments will be processed as soon as possible, please allow a few days. Well done everyone
    2 points
  12. Granted I was in the kitchen for some of the game putting dinner together, but I didn't see Brackley put the ball in the net. Was a dire watch, but a quality goal saw Tranmere home. What I will say though is it backs up my thinking that the Football League sides find it really tough in an empty stadium so hopefully we can get at least a couple of the 6 over the line.
    1 point
  13. 715 Wolverhampton aasda 9/4 bet365 win Deserved favourite should still be knocking the door and should get through after 2nd lto 4 days ago from what I see.
    1 point
  14. Rooney has dropped himself for tomorrow which makes Derby a bet for me, hopefully they will touch evens (10/11 right now). Bournemouth looked good against Forest, with Brooks really pulling the strings. They should be able to beat struggling Rotherham and are one for accas (31/40). Done a treble, Blackburn, Bournemouth and Derby @ 5.2/1.
    1 point
  15. 1 point
  16. ***@***.com on paypal, forgot how to PM lol Well done all, see you next month
    1 point
  17. I’m glad to see that you interested in cricket. I’m taking a break at the moment , so , I haven’t analysed the match but I will be back next week. i think England will win @1.50 , just feeling ?
    1 point
  18. a couple of places,
    1 point
  19. 12:35 Southwell Thawry 13:40 Southwell Tom Tulliver 14:45 Southwell Alba Del Sole 15:20 Southwell Le Manege Enchante 15:45 Chelmsford Fircombe Hall 18:15 Chelmsford Bird For Life 19:45 Chelmsford Channel Packet
    1 point
  20. Loss on places & wins yesterday. Win Bank €5,160 Place Bank €769
    1 point
  21. minus 172.40 Taking a chance on the old Champ beating a couple of shiny new upstarts ..... Newb 3.00 - Paisley Park - £20 win at 7/2 bog bet365
    1 point
  22. Fader

    UK Championship

    apologies, round 2 gets started tomorrow at 1pm. My days are all mixed up. I was thinking it was Saturday
    1 point
  23. Fader

    UK Championship

    Doherty, 4-2 up loses 4 in a row in Ken Doherty only fashion. We start the second round today at 1pm. The one I like is Milkins to beat Gilbert. I had Jiahui to beat Milkins and he certainly played well, hitting 2 centuries and a 50+ but Milkins was on fire with 2 centuries and 3 50+ in the 6 frames he won. I'll also go for a 4-fold accy again (money back as free bet if one fails) 4pts R.Milkins to beat D.Gilbert 2/1 bet365 1pt accy - Milkins / Yuelong -3.5 frames to beat J.White / O.lines / Xintong 14/1 paddypower
    1 point
  24. Phantasmal owes you nothing after yesterday pal ?
    1 point
  25. @buga00, and that's why I tout you as the best tipster of Portuguese football on the scene! I bet you absolutely loved that one! Can you follow it up for this weekend's games?
    1 point
  26. Not going to have chance to wait around for odds to drift if they actually do. Grafting all day . Newbury double 15.25/1 Oldgrangewood/ Paisley Park
    1 point
  27. The two clubs will fight for the points, I expect them not to take too many risks and for a midfield match to take place. It will be judged on the details and I will bet on the few goals CRYSTAL PALACE vs NEWCASTLE UNITED @@ +2.50 Under, odds 1.67
    1 point
  28. 320 southwell phantasmal 5/2 bet365 win Out quick after today's nice win if this is right 210 southwell perfect rose 13/2 win bet365 and fieldsman 9/1 Betfair sports book win Perfect rose finding some form now down in trip and fieldsman could start better and in the mix at this weight.
    1 point
  29. 12:45 - The Ladbrokes Daily Odds Boosts Chase (Novices' Limited Handicap Chase) (For the Fulke Walwyn Trophy) This looks to be a competitive edition of the race with the two at the top of the market looking to maintain their 100 per cent record over fences. Eritage made it a winning start over the bigger obstacles at Ludlow last month for Paul Nicholls, although he enjoyed some fortune to do so. Having had wind surgery during the summer, the six-year-old was well-backed ahead of his chase debut and he raced keenly through the race before looking held in second behind the Nigel Twiston-Davies-trained Goa Lil approaching the final fence. However, the leader fell at the last leaving Eritage to come home as a clear eight and a half length winner. Eritage was having to concede weight to the four-year-old Goa Lil, but the runner-up on the day was Dan Skelton’s Monsieur D’Arque whose record over fences now stands at one win from nine races. A winner of a Class 4 novice over hurdles, Eritage is clearly expected to make up into a better chaser given the way that he was supported for the Ludlow race, so he is open to progress at Newbury but will need to improve now taking on tougher opposition. The other horse in the line-up who arrives having won his only chase start so far is ANEMOI, who will be bidding to enhance Harry Whittington’s fine recent record in the race. The trainer has landed the prize twice in the last five years and ANEMOI looks to hold strong claims of adding to that in the 2020 renewal. He was a useful performer over hurdles in 2018/19 as third-place finishes in a Cheltenham Listed race and Class 2 at Taunton saw him sent off at odds of only 7/1 for the Scottish Champion Hurdle. However, he ran below-par in the Grade 2 handicap at Ayr and then was not seen on the track again until Wetherby last month. Having had wind surgery, the six-year-old made a successful return to action over hurdles as he got the better of Dan Skelton’s Proschema before being sent chasing for his next start. In what looked to be a decent novices’ handicap at Chepstow at the beginning of the month, ANEMOI showed a good attitude to narrowly get the better of Kerry Lee’s Financier, who reopposes on friday. After a slow jump at the second-last fence, ANEMOI battled back strongly to get his head in front close home which has led to there being a 1lb change in the weights between the pair ahead of the Newbury contest. However, Financier had the benefit of three previous races over fences and ANEMOI can confirm the form from Chepstow with the promise of more to come over the bigger obstacles. He can improve on his first chase start and make it a hat-trick of wins this season on friday. All of the runners in the line-up have potential now chasing, such as Editeur Du Gite who put up an improved effort on his third start over fences on his seasonal reappearance. A winner over hurdles in France, he failed to get involved in his two races last year for Gary Moore but was interestingly pitched into the Grade 2 Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase at Kempton on the latter occasion. He did not race again until the end of last month, where he improved to finish runner-up in a novices’ handicap at Ascot. That was over two miles and three furlongs and Editeur Du Gite went from the front until being passed at the second-last by the Anthony Honeyball-trained Sully D’Oc AA. The six-year-old could be able to build on that effort back in trip at Newbury, but he has a bit to find with the front two in the market. advice: ANEMOI 1pt WIN @ 4/1 (General) 2:25 – The Get Your Ladbrokes £1 Free Bet Today Handicap Chase 11 runners go to the post in what looks a very interesting chase over the 2m4f, with a lot of solid form on offer. Having to give weight to all is the Venetia Williams trained Cepage, with the usual suspect of Charlie Deutsch doing the steering. He has been a very good horse for connections thus far and managed to get his head in front in a Grade 3 handicap at Cheltenham over 2m4½f back in January. He wasn’t disgraced in the Ultima Handicap at the Cheltenham Festival last time out either, when finishing seventh. He hasn’t been seen since then though, and despite having some strong form in his locker, he usually finds one or two too good and I can see the same happening again here on slightly quicker ground than he ideally likes. Although Sully D’Oc AA returned a winner for last time out, this race looks a lot deeper, albeit with him being towards the bottom of the handicap in this field. The wind surgery seemed to do the trick as this horse finally returned a winner over fences on his seasonal debut when scoring at Ascot, jumping well all the way round. The 10lb raise could see him struggle in a more competitive race, but he is open to improvement. Defi Sacre gets a huge amount of weight from all his rivals and could still be well-handicapped off this mark. He was a classy improver last year over fences, rattling up a hat-trick over 2m and his reappearance run showed that he could still find a mark of 129 workable. However, given that he failed to score at Aintree at the start of the month, despite being sent off as favourite, and this trip is one he’s not proven over, he could find this race a tough ask with cheekpieces on for the first time. Richard Johnson is back to winning ways once again this season and his partnership with Philip Hobbs is usually one to be feared even though the yard is in some very inconsistent form at the moment. Musical Slave has the second JP McManus colours on today and he showed progression over hurdles - he has now started to tell a similar story over fences too. This seven-year-old managed to break his duck over fences when winning at Exeter on New Year’s Day and followed that up with two decent efforts. However, he is now 4lb higher in the weights this time around and will more than likely want further in time, especially given that this ground isn’t as soft as he’d like ideally. San Benedeto is an interesting horse here as he is a very smart chaser on his day, scoring over course and distance in March 2019 to land the Greatwood Gold Cup (Grade 3) off this same mark of 147. However, the big worry with this horse is that his recent form has been poor in handicap company, including in the Summer Plate in July, but he does drop back to his last winning mark so again, that gives him a chance. He does look interesting but, judging by his last four efforts, he’d be a risky one to chance regardless. The Alan King trained Fidux deserves a mention after finishing ahead of the Nicholls horse in the Summer Plate, eventually finishing second. The seven-year-old has since gone in to score on his latest outing, albeit in weaker company, over 2m5½f, sticking on gamely. This is a much tougher task though and might be out of his depth in these deep waters. Clondaw Castle has some strong market support, after an excellent run in the Old Roan Chase, finishing second on his seasonal debut, finishing ahead of the favourite, OLDGRANGEWOOD. He ended last season in fine form too, picking up a victory at Warwick over today’s trip, and he clearly has potential, especially on the kind of sound surface he’ll encounter here. The eight-year-old is now 2lb higher for his recent second and OLDGRANGEWOOD has the 2lb swing in the weights in his favour here. After taking this race 12 months ago, Dan Skelton’s nine-year-old gets the nod to get back to winning ways after his good fourth last time out. He really seemed to benefit from the wind surgery last season, scoring twice in handicaps including a Grade 3 at Cheltenham. He should come on from that seasonal debut and with conditions in his favour and 4lb less weight on his back than the burden his main danger, Clondaw Castle, carries, it would be no shock to see these two battle it out to the line and the market could well have got this race spot on. advice: OLDGRANGEWOOD 1pt E/W @ 9/2 (William Hill - 4 places) 3:00 - Ladbrokes Long Distance Hurdle (Grade 2) This looks to be a high-class renewal of the Grade 2 contest and it sees last year’s winner of the race return to action but now with a bit to prove. Paisley Park was one of the stories of the 2018/19 season for Emma Lavelle as he burst onto the scene in the staying hurdling division, capping off an unbeaten five-race campaign with success in the Stayers’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. He got the better of the Jedd O’Keeffe-trained Sam Spinner by two and three-quarter lengths in the championship event and the manner of his victories throughout the season suggested that he could go on to dominate the division over the next couple of years. Given a break after his Festival success, things went to plan in Paisley Park’s first two runs of the 2019/20 season as he won last year’s renewal of the Long Distance Hurdle before following-up in the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham. Those two wins saw him sent off as the odds-on favourite to defend his Stayers’ Hurdle Crown, but the eight-year-old finished seventh in the Grade 1 after suffering from an irregular heartbeat. It can be that the issue is a one-off though and connections have been positive ahead of his comeback this week. If Paisley Park can return at Newbury somewhere near his best form then he will be difficult to beat in the Long Distance Hurdle, but it remains to be seen how his last run has affected him. Taking on Paisley Park at Newbury are two of the new kids on the block in the staying hurdling division, who will be looking to see if they are up to competing at the Cheltenham Festival come March. McFabulous took a bit of time to find his form last season for Paul Nicholls but ended the campaign with impressive wins as he was upped in trip. He got off the mark over hurdles at the third attempt when winning a Market Rasen novice in February and has not looked back since, travelling strongly when landing a Grade 3 novice at Kempton the following month over two miles and five furlongs. For his seasonal reappearance, McFabulous was kept to novice company for the Grade 2 Persian War at Chepstow and again travelled easily through the race before having too much for the rest of his rivals. The six-year-old has now earned a step up to the highest level and has to be respected on his first try at three miles, but on ratings he does have a lot to find with Paisley Park. Also in the line-up is the Philip Hobbs-trained Thyme Hill who was unbeaten in three novice hurdles last season, including Newbury’s Grade 1 Challow Hurdle, ahead of the Cheltenham Festival. He then ran a fine race when finishing an unlucky fourth in the Albert Bartlett so connections have decided to stay over hurdles for the current campaign. However, the trainer’s horses have seemed to be needing their first run back this season and it looks a strong race to be starting off in. There are actually two winners of the Stayers’ Hurdle in Friday’s race and LISNAGAR OSCAR might be underestimated yet again here after his shock success at Cheltenham in March. Sent off at 50/1 for the 2020 edition of the Stayers’ Hurdle, he defied his odds to run out a two-length winner (Tom George’s Summerville Boy back in fifth) with connections saying afterwards that they were surprised to see him return at such a big price. Looking back, he had showed promise when third in the Cleeve Hurdle on his previous run and as a novice he had finished fifth in the Albert Bartlett and third in the Sefton Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree. With some uncertainty about Paisley Park and the pair of McFabulous and Thyme Hill stepping out of novice company, LISNAGAR OSCAR could build on his solid comeback run at Wetherby last month and go well at decent odds in the Long Distance Hurdle. advice: LISNAGAR OSCAR 1pt E/W @ 16/1 (BetVictor) 3:35 – The Play Ladbrokes 1-2-Free On Football Handicap Hurdle. Current favourite for the closing race of day one is Hill Sixteen who won by an impressive forty-six lengths on his stable debut for Nigel Twiston-Davies nine days ago. The seven-year-old was well-backed for his first run since January and he duly landed the odds with a comfortable victory. That performance came in a Ffos Las handicap chase over two miles and three and a half furlongs on heavy ground, so he will be facing a much different test at Newbury on Saturday as he bids to make it back-to-back wins since moving from the Sue Smith yard. Hill Sixteen gets to race off a mark of 123 now switched to hurdles so is 10lb well-in on the ratings, but he is up in trip and class while conditions will be much quicker than they were at Ffos Las. He is a previous winner over hurdles though and was runner-up on his penultimate start over two miles and seven and a half furlongs, but he has not raced over hurdles since March 2019 so has a little bit to prove despite being well-handicapped. Another who has a wide-margin win to their name this season is Neville’s Cross, who made it two from two since being sent handicapping with a twenty-length success at Hereford last month. Trained by Tom Lacey, the five-year-old has enjoyed the step-up in distance this season with wins at Uttoxeter and then Hereford before going up in grade at Cheltenham at the end of October. Raised 12lb for his Hereford victory, he was sent off as favourite for Cheltenham’s Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier but could get never really get involved when finishing sixth (the Tom George-trained Ballon Onabudget further back in eighth). It is too soon to be writing off Neville’s Cross as he is still lightly raced and unexposed over three miles, but he will need to resume his improvement on friday to defy his current mark of 130. One who is proven in this grade and should not have any problems with the conditions at Newbury is DELL’ ARCA, who won a Class 2 over friday’s course and distance on good ground at the beginning of the month. He may now be eleven years old but has rolled back the years this season for David Pipe as he previously won at Aintree before following-up in good style last time out. DELL’ ARCA was rated as high as 150 in the past so his current mark of 131 may not be beyond him and he has been developing a good partnership with conditional jockey Fergus Gillard. For DELL’ ARCA’s two wins this season Gillard has been in the saddle and he is good value for his 5lb claim, even if he was able to take off 7lb the last time at Newbury. With Gillard’s claim, DELL’ ARCA only has to carry 10st 7lb on friday and he can continue his resurgence this season and make a bold bid for his hat-trick. Alan King saddles two in the race and they both could have more to offer over three miles. Loverboy is lightly raced having only had the nine career starts to date as a nine-year-old. He ran twice for Dan Skelton back in 2017 but then was not seen again on the track until January this year when he defied his long absence to make a winning start for Alan King at Chepstow. He subsequently did not race until last month where he ran creditably to finish sixth at Wetherby trying three miles for the first time. Loverboy could be able to build on that effort at Newbury carrying bottom weight in the contest, so is an interesting contender even though he is up in class. Stablemate Coeur De Lion is actually having his first try at the trip having raced more times on the Flat during his career. The seven-year-old is rated 94 on the level having won the Ascot Stakes at the royal meeting this summer, so he could be well-treated based on that form. However, so far he has not been as good in his eleven races over hurdles as he has shown on the Flat. advice: DELL’ ARCA 1pt E/W @ 15/2 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
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  30. Newbury 2.25 San Benedeto 20.5 Oldgrangewood 20.2 these two top rated and not much between them. Want to back both but will see if Oldgrangewood drifts out from 9/2 to 11/2 before I part with my money on that one. San Benedeto offers value at 15/2 and will enjoy the good ground. Also has a decent record at Newbury and is on his last winning mark which was at this course last year. San Benedeto 15/2 Newbury 3.00 Very exciting race in prospect here and Paisley Park is clear on ratings. If running anywhere near form I can’t see him getting beat regardless of how good some of the others look. Excuses can be made for the blip at Cheltenham and I expect him to be fit and ready to go here. Hoping to get better odds before I decide to back him. Can maybe see him drifting slightly so will hold on.
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  31. Most Winners table - 5 days to go and Astleavista still leads the "Most Winners" table. It's tight though with only 3 winners difference between 8 players.
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  32. Reminder for @Larkin22and @corky who missed week 1.
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  33. Welcome to the forum. It’s been a tough few months for the forum, but it’s good to see it’s carrying on as strong as ever with plenty of new posters. Here’s to adding to the legacy that Sir Puntalot and Billy Hills created.
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  34. Great news @StevieDay1983 A warm welcome from me to the new PL staff, LONG LIVE THE LOUNGE!!! You will find your fellow punters lounge members to be kind, compassionate and lovely but just remember: That is all. For now.
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  37. As we seem to be pretty quiet and a bit shy to share our winnings let's run this thread on til the end of the year and hope we can celebrate some results
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