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Showing content with the highest reputation on 03/11/20 in all areas

  1. 5 points
    BillyHills

    Competition Going Forward

    I think the new proposals should keep all types of player happy enough The punter who goes for the long shot will still scoop the top prize (if successful) The punter who likes to pick shorter priced winners can aim for Cup qualification and the amount of winners prize Those who just miss out still have 2nd, 3rd and 4th money to play for. Those having a weak month will still have the top 25 to aim for, for a place in the Cup. Those on the borderline of Cup qualification will need to play until later in the month which stops the negativity that sometimes creeps in. Those that just miss out on the Cup will get a prize for finishing runners up. This thread has been viewed over 300 times and I guess those who wanted to say something has said something. Thanks for your feedback. I propose to introduce the new format at the beginning of April, which means the qualification for the Cup will be as normal in March. From April 1st Winner : £60 Second : £30 Third : £20 Fourth: £10 Highest Amount of Winners with min £10 Profit : £20 (if level, most profit will win, then S/R) Cup Winner: £30 Cup Runners Up: £10 Top 25 only to qualify for Cup.
  2. 3 points
    Kingdom for

    Competition Going Forward

    @BillyHills Good job. No messing about. Debates an idea. Implements.
  3. 2 points
    The defeat to Liverpool in the first leg 1-0 gives Simeone a slight lead. Suffice to see if the Argentine coach's defensive approach will be enough to give his team the quarter-finals ticket. Liverpool at Anfield are undefeated this season and are giving it another boost to their game. Klopp has prepared his players racing and psychologically, which I think may be the ones who will finally celebrate in the end, as they excel in quality and have the help of home LIVERPOOL FC vs ATLETICO MADRID @@ LIVERPOOL FC, odds 1.60 Both want it very much, but it is very difficult to choose one to qualify for. Both will chase the victory and have all the backgrounds to score and give us a thrilling showdown with many stages and goals. PARIS SAINT GERMAIN vs BORUSSIA DORTMUND @@ +3.50 Over, odds 1.90
  4. 1 point
    BillyHills

    Competition Going Forward

    Proposals As promised is the tables thread I am looking at ways to reward the more consistent players and also ways to keep up the interest to the end of the month. I find that clear leaders sit on their profit and players attempting to qualify for the Cup are doing the same which leads to many players not picking selections in the last couple of days or more. Just to be clear I have no feelings one way or another on how players go about approaching the competition, we all have our own way of betting, we just want everyone to feel they have something to play for. I have noticed over the last few months some rumblings about the way players approach the Naps competition and there is no doubt we have had a shift in more players going for the speculative outsider than we have before. I had a look at the figures and we are regularly hitting around the 19% S/R these days where as before we were often around the 25% mark. This is totally down to more players going for 25/1+ selections. The players who genuinely sift through the cards to find their best bet of the day feel as though they have no chance in winning the monthly competition. I can see once a player has hit a 50/1 winner just playing for a Cup place is not the best of incentives. I think we can reward performance and profit and have been looking at the last 12 months figures to see how we can do it. At first I thought it would be best just to award the player with the highest strike rate a percentage of the winners prize but I also don't think encouraging people to select 1/4 shots everyday is helping anyone, so taking that a step further, what about if we had a profit figure that you needed to surpass as well? If we say took the highest strike rate of those that made a profit in the month of at least £10 that would kill off any ideas of odds on shots every single day. Of course you would expect some short priced horses to be chosen and I have no problem with that, if its a Nap, its a Nap but by having the £10 figure it really rewards those that have performed well that month. I have done a couple of tables to show how it would have panned out since January 2019 up until last month. Interestingly just 2 winners of the comp came out with the best S/R. 8 players were in the top 4 cash prizes but it would have given 7 players a prize that wouldn't have normally received anything. I would say overall that suits most type of punter. Of course people may bet differently knowing about the new prize. In the second table i took away the upper profit limit and this highlighted the problem of players sitting on a small profit just to qualify for the Cup, I feel this would just get worse if there was a prize for the highest S/R only. I propose a prize of £20 for player with the highest SR that has at least £10 profit on the month. This prize may well go to a player in the top 4 already but the winner of the whole competition will still quite rightly win the most cash whatever the result. The second part of the new formula is to limit the amount of players qualifying for the Cup. At the minute anyone finishing in profit (or even, lol) gains automatic qualification into the following months KO Cup. This can be as many as 30+ players and this often leads to a few players reaching a profit figure and then stopping posting for last few days of the month, or even worse players reaching 15 bets and then just stopping. If we had a figure of 25 players only to qualify for the Cup then it would make it more exciting and something to aim for in the final few days of the month. I will also award a runners up prize for the KO Cup which has been asked for in the past. I am not looking to change any of the main rules of the comp, i think we should keep the main core of what the comp is all about ie; picking one horse per day. So we wont be changing that or messing about with stakes etc..... Let me know if you think this would be a way forward, please bare in mind we have a budget and we want to keep things simple. Proposals as from April 1st Winner : £60 Second : £30 Third : £20 Fourth: £10 Highest S/R with min £10 Profit : £20 Cup Winner: £30 Cup Runners Up: £10 Top 25 only to qualify for Cup. Table of those with the highest S/R and achieving a £10 profit Table of those with the highest S/R, no upper limit on profit Those in grey did not make the £10 profit mark.
  5. 1 point
    waggy

    2020 Finish

    33 result: Titans won by 6 wkts. Won £98.46 Profit to date £2505.81
  6. 1 point
    four-leaf

    Tennis Tips - March 9 - March 22

    Lucas Miedler to beat (correct score 2-1) Hugo Grenier at 6.25 with Unibet Sometimes it might be worth taking a bigger risk with a medium stake. This is one of those moments I think it could be worth taking that risk. Same age on both players, both players ranked inside top 300. Nothing to separate them really. I don't know what's behind the higher odds on Lucas but I'll take my chances with a correct score. About Dustin Brown: shortly after I posted the bet on Dustin -4.5 the price rised to 2.20 with Unibet compared to Coolbet who decided to lower their odds on Dustin -4.0 games. Strange but I don't buy the supposed risk of failure because Unibet raised the odds because I think there's no valid reason for that.
  7. 1 point
    5 winners. Hats off to you sir
  8. 1 point
    four-leaf

    Tennis Tips - March 9 - March 22

    Dustin Brown to beat (-4.5 games) David Pichler at 1.98 with Unibet I think Dustin has looked pretty mutch alright so far this season. He has won the matches he's been supposed to win like beating Corentin Denolly and Uladzimir Ignatik before this week. Dustin is rounding up to some kind of form and I am very happy to be on Dustin to cover this handicap against an unknown less good opponent who is most successful in doubles through his career. Dustin has the right kind of arsenal to go far in this minor challenger tournament. His toughest opponents will be Jack Draper and his doubles partner Lucas Miedler. Beating a doubles specialist like David Pichler shouldn't be of any major troubles. David has never been ranked higher in singles than 390 and that was 3 years ago so he clearly isn't exactly powering up for singles and he shouldn't have any weapons to hurt Dustin and therefore I can see a double break coming Dustins way sometime during the match. David has played two singles matches this season and lost both on futures level against a player ranked 1172 and another ranked 716 and ofcourse he played one match in Southafrica today which he won in straight sets against a non-existent threat for most players. Even a less advanced player like David could beat the qualifier Jean Thirouin in 2 sets today. I hope Dustin is up to this non-existent challenge and wins as easy as I think because if it happens 1.98 could be the price for Dustin to win straight up without complications. Dustin is back this season after his injury and he's been good enough for me to back him to win by 5 games or more.
  9. 1 point
    410 chelt Wide open race but These 4 are overpriced and just look good value Oldgrangewood 5pts winn19.5 betfair Charmont 5pts win 40.0 betfair Spring town lake 5pts win 25.0 betfair Highway one o one 5pts win 46.0 betfair
  10. 1 point
    Great one! History repeats itself. Congrats.
  11. 1 point
    Kingdom for

    Naps - Wed March 11th

    Huntingdon 14:25 Midnightreflection 9/1 EW Betfair
  12. 1 point
  13. 1 point
    Sun of Macedon

    NBA Roller Coaster

    10.03.2020 114. LA Clippers -12 @ 1.952 (5Dimes) 30 units
  14. 1 point
    Xtc12

    Naps - Wed March 11th

    Above price should be 13\2 Bet365
  15. 1 point
    BillyHills

    Naps - Tuesday March 10th

    Welcome back mate
  16. 1 point
    RB Leipzig vs Tottenham The talk of coronavirus and the future of games being played across Europe continues to dominate conversations throughout the game but this second leg of the last 16 Champions League clash between German Bundesliga title challengers RB Leipzig and Premier League under-achievers Tottenham is scheduled to go ahead as planned tonight in an 8pm GMT kick-off at the Red Bull Arena. RB Leipzig boast a 1-0 lead from the first leg after Timo Werner's decisive penalty. Scoring penalties is becoming a trend for Julian Nagelsmann's side with 4 of their last 5 goals in this competition coming from the spot. It will concern the German team that star striker Werner hasn't managed to hit the net at home in this competition in his last six outings. If Nagelsmann leads his team to victory here then he'll become the youngest ever manager at 32 years of age to guide his side through a Champions League knockout tie. The current holder of that record is Didier Deschamps who was 35 years old when he managed it with Monaco back in 2003/04. Tottenham come into this game feeling like all the odds are against them. As if holding a 1-0 deficit heading into an away second leg wasn't bad enough there is also an injury list longer than Tottenham's wait for a trophy. Sorry, @thfc, that was uncalled for! Anyway, the absentees had already included Harry Kane, Son Heung-min, Juan Foyth, Moussa Sissoko, and Ben Davies. Jose Mourinho can now add new signing Steven Bergwijn to the sidelines. There is hope though. Spurs have only lost 1 of their 5 away Champions League matches in Germany. They have also been eliminated from 8 of their last 10 European knockout ties after losing the first leg. However, we all remember that Ajax semi-final last season. I'm not convinced Tottenham are in the right place to turn this around. You get the feeling that football throws up some times when it's written in the stars for a player or a team to have their moment in the sun. It happened for Tottenham last season and I think it could happen for RB Leipzig this season. It was a mighty fine win in the first leg and I don't think Tottenham have enough about them to turn it around with so many big game players missing. I can maybe see Tottenham getting a draw and falling just short but realistically I think it makes sense to back a home win. RB Leipzig HT/FT @ 2.40 with SpreadEx Total Goals Scored Over 2.5 @ 1.67 with Betfair
  17. 1 point
    Valiant Thor

    Competition Going Forward

    @BillyHills The same principles apply whether you trying to win the comp or get the highest S/R prize .(though much harder for the S/R prize) Using table 1 as an example (SR + 10 profit) Ave winning SR 50% ish Ave winning Profit 25 ish Say you played 30 days in a month you'd need 15 winners (30*50% = 15)...SR sorted So with 15 winners you would need to make a 55pt return (30 staked + 25 profit)...profit sorted Therefore similar to the player who sits there playing 66/1 shots every day until the law of probability steps in and he is then reasonable sure to win the prize the other players option would be to play the 55/15 (3.66 or 11/4 nearest highest odds ) daily until the law of probability steps in and they win the S/R comp ( using Cumulative Binomdist in excel gives approx 1% probability of getting 15 correct with odds of 11/4 or greater,so much harder to win ) Or if player 1 hits his 80/1 shot early he could even revert to 11/4 shots for the rest of the comp with the possibility of winning both (greed is good as Mr Gekko says)
  18. 0 points
    Saddlesore

    Naps - Wed March 11th

    Lingfield 5.15 MERCERS 22/1 bet365 if n/r Lingfield 4.35 DASHING ROGER 6/1 bet365
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