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Showing content with the highest reputation on 08/05/2019 in Posts

  1. Bit of a disappointing opening day of the season with only Dulwich winning although at least they were the Naps. Telford and Boston ought to have won as should the double, but that's the way it goes sometimes. There were some interesting results and I was kicking myself for not opposing Notts County who couldn't even muster a shot on target against Eastleigh. It seems to me they are a long way from having a side being competitive at the right end of the table and as much as I would love to oppose them on Tuesday night they host a Stockport side who looked pretty poor in the live game against Maidenhead so it's hard to want to back them after that even against Notts County. There are 7 teams I do like the look off though. Solihull Moors v Torquay As I wrote in my ante-post preview I thought that Torquay were, along with Notts County, the worst value to win the title. They won their first game back at this level when beating Boreham Wood 2-1 on Saturday, but they were up against 10 men for a lot of the game which would clearly made things easier for them. This game will be a much tougher test as they face last year's runners-up. Solihull got off to a solid start at the weekend drawing 2-2 with Harrogate in an exciting game which really should have been the live TV choice. They were really hard to beat at home last season and I fully expect it to be the same this time around. I think they should be closer to even money, to beat a team they should finish above come the end of the season, than they are so at 6/5 they look worth backing. Woking v Aldershot Both teams I tipped to go down won on Saturday although that still doesn't mean they won't be in a relegation scrap and I think the odds compliers have over reacted to Woking's win at Dagenham on Saturday. I just wonder if it was a good time to face Dagenham though who have had a big change in players and look like they might take a bit of time to gel. Granted Aldershot have had an even bigger turnover, but they also have a brand new manager which means it is a bit of a different story. They held their own against title favs Fylde on Saturday and that will give them a bit of confidence in this big local derby. I'd imagine both these sides will be in a relegation scrap and therefore the 3/1 on offer about the away side looks big as I wouldn't go any bigger than 2s myself. Yeovil v Eastleigh Eastleigh face the other relegated side after beating Notts County on Saturday. It doesn't sound like they played especially well and there is every chance they faced Notts County at the right time, but they could easily be facing Yeovil at the right time as well. Granted it as only a penalty that beat them on Saturday against Barnet. They did start off well, but manager Darren Sarll mentioned after the game that it was going to be a massive learning curve for a group of players who have been forced together late on. Eastleigh are a more settled side, albeit one who looks weaker on paper than last years, but their experience at this level could prove to be the deciding factor here as it did for them on Saturday. They look a big price at 12/5. Eastbourne v Tonbridge I think Eastbourne look the best bet of the night. They held out until injury time against Billericay and although disappointing to lose so late on I would imagine Lee Bradbury was happy enough with the performance. They should be more than capable of picking up the 3 points here as I am happy to continue to take on Tonbridge. Dulwich went down to 10 men early on, but were still able to take the lead and although Tonbridge ended up with their keeper being sent off and had an outfielder in goal, but Dulwich manager Gavin Rose decided to play it safe and just hold on for the 2-1 win rather than go for the 3rd goal. It worked nicely as although Tonbridge tried to find an equaliser Dulwich saw the game out. Eastbourne look capable of improving on their poor season last time around and look an a better side than Tonbridge who may well go straight back down. The home side look a fair price at 11/8. Dorking v Hemel Hempstead Hemel were very impressive on Saturday and arguably put in the most impressive performance in the division beating Hungerford 4-1. Sammy Moore has put together a decent side and although Dorking should go well this season they are missing some key players at the moment and that could prove key in a fixture against one of the leagues better sides. Dorking beat Slough thanks to a controversial injury time goal after the linesman put his flag up for offside only to put it down again and the Slough defence had stopped. Slough can consider themselves unfortunate to have lost that and Hemel will be even stronger opposition. Marathon are way overpriced on the away win for me at 93/50. Concord v Chelmsford I got Concord wrong on Saturday as they ended up with a very comfortable 3-0 victory over Oxford City, but I am taking them on again here against a Chelmsford side who also had a 3 goal win beating Hampton 4-1. I think my problem with going with Oxford on Saturday was that I was keen to take on Concord and I didn't think Oxford were going to be as bad as they were, but I clearly overrated the Oxford side. Chelmsford are certainly much better than Oxford and I am prepared to back them here to hopefully back up my view that Concord will not do a great deal this season. I would certainly have Chelmsford as favs here and not as big as Marathon's 17/10. Bradford Park Avenue v Guiseley Just the one bet in the National League North on Tuesday. I was tempted to back Hereford to beat Gloucester as I think they will in a game where there are likely to be more away fans than home fans, but I think the price is about right so am leaving it (whilst obviously hoping Gloucester can somehow manage a win). Instead I will back Guislely at just under 6/4 to beat their Yorkshire rivals. As much as I didn't expect BPA to do much this season I certainly would not have thought they would have lost 5-0 to Curzon Ashton. Now granted their could be a positive response to that drubbing, but if you are losing 5-0 to Curzon that suggests you aren't very good. Now I would have had Guiseley as another bottom 6 side ahead of Saturday, but they were impressive in beating Kings Lynn 3-0 and with a performance like that behind them they will be full of confidence going into this. If BPA are every bit as bad as that opening day defeat suggests they are then the away side have to be backed. Solihull 1pt @ 121/100 with Marathon Aldershot 1pt @ 3/1 with BetVictor Eastleigh 1pt @ 12/5 with BetVictor Eastbourne 2pts @ 11/8 with BetVictor Hemel Hempstead 1pt @ 93/50 with Marathon Chelmsford 1pt @ 17/10 with Marathon Guiseley 1pt @ 147/100 with Marathon
    4 points
  2. Jan-Lennard Struff to beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga at 2.57 with MarathonBet I'm not fully behind Tsonga again yet, think he's still got a way to go before he's back to his best. He's winning the H2H but I don't think they've faced much before on hard. Short points are likely so its whether Struff is hitting it clean and whose serving better. Maybe should look at taking the short priced handicap instead.
    4 points
  3. btugero

    Naps - Monday Aug 5th

    2.50 Cork Here For The Craic @ 25/1 Bet365
    3 points
  4. Cameron Norrie vs Marton Fucsovics Norrie is the better player on hard courts, he got some good results in Atlanta. Can't see Fucsovics adapt quickly after playing clay court tournaments recently. Norrie @ 1.88 (betsson) Xiyu Wang vs Svetlana Kuznetsova Kuznetsova's career is in decline, I don't know why she gets a wild card here. There are lots of deserving youngsters out there. Anyway 18 year old Wang might not be ready for this level yet but she show she has the means to advance on this one after she beat Bonaventure and Peterson in qualifiers. Xiyu Wang @ 1.80 (tempobet)
    2 points
  5. Stan Warinka to beat Dimitrov at 1.58 with Bethard Will be pulling the trigger on this one, odds seem higher than anywhere else and Dimitrov is just a lay at the minute regardless. Stan can also blow hot and cold and it could come down to just whether he fancies it and whether Dimi can get his serve working
    2 points
  6. Scofflaw 5-20 Chester 9/2 Ladbroke
    2 points
  7. Snert

    Naps - Sunday Aug 4th

    Chester 3.10 Rock on Baileys e/w 18/1 Betvictor
    2 points
  8. Maria Magdalena 1.20 Market Rasen 7/1 Paddy Power - EW
    2 points
  9. aug 5 Btugero lands a beauty to go joint top
    1 point
  10. Ilia Ivashka to beat Kwon Soon-wo at 2.62 with bet365 Im a little bit surprised for the odds. I think Kwon is overrated here (or Ivashka underrated) so I'm gonna take Ivashka here. Both players come from the qualy (Ivashka has won against Harris and Nishioka and Kwon has won against Haase and Millman). Ivashka is clear the better player here so I'm a little bit surprised (if anyone knows something about this match that i don't know please tell me?)
    1 point
  11. BillyHills

    Naps - Monday Aug 5th

    Not on minus 3 anymore BT
    1 point
  12. Striker

    Womens Golf

    Played decent golf, but just outside the top 20, finishing 29th Plays again this week at the Scottish Open, so will get involved Each Way [6 places] @ 60-1 Paddy Power Top 10 Finish @ 4-1 Unibet
    1 point
  13. 530w harmonise 9/2 bet365
    1 point
  14. Donna Vekic to beat Madison Keys at 1.88 with Pinnacle This is worth chancing imo given that Keys was injured last time out and couldn't even compete against Baptiste. It was an arm problem and those are always difficult to deal with in tennis, so I'm backing Vekic in a match that she can win in two ways - either by playing well herself or by getting an opponent that's not fully fit just yet.
    1 point
  15. 1 point
  16. Don't Forget Deadline for Gameweek 1 is Friday 9th August 19.00 Any changes made to your team after this will not count in Gameweek 1 Good Luck All
    1 point
  17. Hi Jedi Is this any good too you, basically its the same stats as you get in the RP but a freebie
    1 point
  18. Smiles Tennis

    Tennis 2.0

    1 morning pick
    1 point
  19. waggy

    2020 Finish continued

    8 result: Simpson 2nd. Won £80 11 result: Simpson 65, B-H-An 67. Won £80 Profit to date £1034.99
    1 point
  20. 6 meetings on Monday Kempton & Ripon looks the ones to concentrate on 500 R: Ingleby Hollow 11/4 (Nap) 245 K: Dargel 5/4 445 K: Hameem 6/4 145 K: Streamline 5/6 330 R: Watchable 100/30 345 K: Run Wild 6/4
    1 point
  21. 1845 Carlisle Gale Force Maya 3/1 Skybet
    1 point
  22. 310c major jumbo 5/4 coral
    1 point
  23. mr.benn

    Naps - Sunday Aug 4th

    Chester 4.15 Oh Purple Reign 5/4 Bet365
    1 point
  24. 1945harry

    Naps - Sunday Aug 4th

    16:15 Chester, Oh Purple Reign, 11/8 888Sport.
    1 point
  25. Mkt Rasen 5.10 Rory and Me @ SP Ken
    1 point
  26. PercyP

    Naps - Sunday Aug 4th

    Oh Purple Reign 4.15 Chester (Win 11/8 Bet365) Oh Purple Reign showed a nice turn of foot to win at York over 6f. He can be forgiven for his last run at Ascot over 7f on soft going. Return to 6f will suit.
    1 point
  27. YSM

    Naps - Sunday Aug 4th

    Chester 2.00 Dream Kart 3-1 BetVictor
    1 point
  28. bank 1580.61 Chester 2.35 Breathalyse 9/4 and Cognac 7/4 Chester 3.10 - Major Jumbo 5/4 and Angel Alexander 11/2 4 x £5 doubles
    1 point
  29. Trotter

    Naps - Sunday Aug 4th

    2.35 Chester - Breathalyse - win at 9/4 bog bet365
    1 point
  30. Both Jared Bowen and Kamil Grosicki are desperate to move away from the club and will be giving their 110% until the transfer window shuts down. The club is very keen to get rid of the latter off their books as he's the highest earner at the club. Most of Hull games in that period will feature plenty of goals. This was the case last year and I expect the same scenario when the current season kicks off. Swansea-Hull over 2.5 @1.75, local
    1 point
  31. Sir Puntalot

    Which is best ?

    @Richard the Courier While I understand they are similar bets, I think are very different at the same time. BTTS relies on both teams having the ability to put the ball in the back of the net, while Over 1.5 just relies on 1 team. Let's take an example: Barnsley v Fulham Over 1.5 Goals is 2/7 (1.29) BTTS is 8/11 (1.72) You wouldn't expect such a big gap between the 2 markets, but I've found that to be quite common. With most teams preferring to play a more attacking style of football these days, and perhaps even VAR may add to total goals, I think BTTS is by far the better value bet. VAR is a speculative comment, of course we'd need 2/3 seasons of data to know what effect it has had on total goals.
    1 point
  32. That's how the season finished. Overall record now looks like this (going back to the 2013/14 season) 213 bets showing a level stakes profit of 52.21 points with an ROI of 24.51%. This is only the third season I've recorded to advised stakes, which show 104 bets, 27.17 points profit and ROI of 29.85%. The level stakes ROI has been (earliest to latest) 27.03%, 25.91%, 13.04%, 21.84%, 41.06% and 19.75%. See you in May, all being well!
    1 point
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