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Showing content with the highest reputation on 05/26/19 in all areas

  1. 2 points
    South_African_Punter

    French Open 2019

    @Hermes I'd take the safer bet of Millman winning a set. Millman, despite having little pedigree on clay, has impressed me this year on clay, with some good performances. However, I think Sascha will have gained a lot of confidence this past week in Geneva and he will have momentum on his side. I think Del Potro will win easily - Jarry will be nervous (as he was yesterday) and JMDP greatly impressed me nearly beating Djokovic in the Rome Masters, despite it being only his 2nd or 3rd match back from injury. Yes, in South Africa, we only have hard courts, so I would take Rosol over Harris as well.
  2. 1 point
    PJC_83

    Tennis Data Analysis

    I've always been a football man, but I find my judgment clouded at times by gut instinct, rather than what the stats say (I know stats aren't everything). I'm a big fan of data analysis, and the patterns that they show, so I decided to apply them to a game I'm less up-to-date with, and that's Tennis. I know the rules of tennis, the patterns of play, the fundamentals, but my knowledge of the actual players isn't great. I could probably name 50 of both genders combined, maximum. Another thing that interests me about tennis betting is that there has to be a result. An underdog cannot play for a draw in tennis like they can in football. Football can have overwhelming domination by a favourite, yet finish 0-0. In Tennis, there has to be a result, therefore each set someone will reach at least 6 games (barring retirement). I analysed all the match data from 2019, looking only at matches that completed. 1117 Men's matches, and 1016 Women's. I'm an over/unders man, and a short odds gambler, so I am specifically looking at the number of games in the 2nd set. Looking at the 2nd set I find more consistent, because you can analyse the 1st set performance and take that into account. If someone was smashed 6-0 in the 1st set, then the likelihood of a 2nd set finishing 7-6 is a lot less than had the 1st set been much closer. The specific market I'm looking at is Over 7.5 games in the 2nd set, so essentially the set finishing any score other than 6-0 or 6-1. The data made quite interesting reading: The total number of games having Over 7.5 in the 2nd Set: Men's: 993/1117 - 88.9% Women's: 829/1016 - 81.59% Men's data breaks down further as follows: Over 7.5, 2nd set, clay courts: 395/451 - 87.58% Over 7.5, 2nd set, hard courts: 598/666 - 89.79% and Women's: Clay: 308/365 - 84.38% Hard: 521/651 - 80.03% So, on the face of this, it indicates that men's games on hard courts tend to be a lot closer than any other match type. I then looked at taking the pre-match odds into consideration. I looked at matches where the favourite was priced 1.5 or shorter, and also looked at games where both players were priced between 1.50 - 2.50 (therefore, you'd imagine, closer matches). Men's: Under 1.5 Favourite, All Games: 512/586 Over 7.5 2nd set - 87.37% Under 1.5 Favourite, Clay: 184/216 Over 7.5 2nd set - 85.19% Under 1.5 Favourite, Hard: 328/370 Over 7.5 2nd set - 88.65% 1.5 - 2.5 Odds, All Games: 426/469 - 90.83% 1.5 - 2.5 Odds, Clay: 187/208 - 89.90% 1.5 - 2.5 Odds, Hard: 239/261 - 91.57% Women's: Under 1.5 Favourite, All Games: 431/536 Over 7.5 2nd set - 80.41% Under 1.5 Favourite, Clay: 146/179 Over 7.5 2nd set - 81.56% Under 1.5 Favourite, Hard: 285/357 Over 7.5 2nd set - 79.83% 1.5 - 2.5 Odds, All Games: 354/429 - 82.52% 1.5 - 2.5 Odds, Clay: 148/170 - 87.06% 1.5 - 2.5 Odds, Hard: 206/259 - 79.54% Conclusions at this stage: Men's hard court matches with more even odds have a higher chance of going over 7.5 games in the 2nd set than any other conditions. I then drilled down even further, to look at the chances of over 7.5 games in the 2nd set, depending on the number of games in the 1st set. These are the highlights of the findings: In men's matches, with odds 1.5-2.5, on Hard courts, and where the 1st set finished 7-6, there is a 93.75% chance of the next set having over 7.5 games. However, this is a fairly small field.. In men's matches, 1.5 - 2.5 odds, Hard courts, 1st set had 9+ games. 2nd set chance of over 7.5 is 91.41%. Although this is a decrease from the line above, it does have a larger field (it has occurred 199 times this year from a sample of 217 games). Taking implied odds into account, 1.09 has implied probability of 91.74%, and 1.1 has implied odds of 90.91%, so any odds 1.1 or longer for over 7.5 2nd set games is value. Hope this makes sense, I'll add more as I go.
  3. 1 point
    Fader

    Q School - Event 2

    OK, so this gets started this morning, hence the late night looking at it. There are plenty of odds slashed and all the value squeezed out which puts me off the players i liked initially. I like Paul Davison again in Event 2 but he is now 10/1 which is probably just about the right price. Wu Yize JUST about gets my tip at 16s. Looked good in defeat. My 50/1 from Event 1 ZePeng impressed and he's gone from 50/1 to 12/1 which stinks and kills all value. Anyway here is my list of value picks that have a chance for tomorrow onward. 10pts staked like last time. 2pts W.Yize to qualify 16/1 bet365 1.5pts S.O'Sullivan to qualify 22/1 bet365 1.5pts H.Akbar to qualify 25/1 ladbrokes 1pt Mingqi to qualify 28/1 bet365 1pt C.Totten to qualify 40/1 bet365 1pt B.Hancorn to qualify 50/1 bet365 1pt Baranowski to qualify 80/1 betfair 0.5pts B.Hall to qualify 175/1 bet365 0.5pts McCardle to qualify 200/1 paddypower
  4. 1 point
    Darran

    Hunter Chase - 5.05 Cartmel

    So we are into the final week of Hunter Chases for 2019 and it is the first of two at Cartmel on Bank Holiday Monday. Absainte heads the betting as I type and she looked quite progressive earlier in the season winning her first 3 races on the bounce and ran some good times in the process. Bit disappointing at Witton Castle on Easter Sunday when losing at 4/7, but she was dismounted after the finish so I suspect something didn't feel quite right. I thought she ran a good race at Cheltenham until getting tired late on behind Kalabaloo and Theatre Territory and she has decent claims in this. Stage One has won twice at Peper Harow which isn't that dissimilar to Cartmel which is probably why Alan Hill is sending him here for this. He hasn't beaten a great deal though in his two wins this season and was well beaten the two times before his last win. This shorter trip will probably suit better than 3m as well although there is plenty of competition for the lead which won't help. Gina is back on Dee Star having won on him two starts back at Bitterley when losing his maiden tag. He didn't quite see it out in the Heart Of All England at Hexham earlier in the month and that suggests this trip will suit better. I just don't think that form is overly strong though and I think he will have to improve again to take this. Fair Exchange ran really well in this race last year to finish 2nd and was also 2nd in a novice chase here. His point form this season though has been very in and out and he has had 8 runs since he made his seasonal debut in March at Didmarton. The win on Easter Saturday at Sandon was a fair effort, but he's been beaten 3 times since then. Clearly this trip and track suit and his trainer certainly knows the time of day, but another who likes to make the running. Dressedforsuccess will be much bigger than the current 7/1 come race time and it was a poor maiden he won last month. Fateh was 3rd in the Dunraven Bowl at Chepstow albeit along way behind the front two. This shorter trip will probably suit better though and he will likely sit in behind the fast pace. Only 6yo so certainly scope for the improvement which he does need to find. It doesn't make a great deal of sense why Al Le Gone is a much bigger price than Dee Star given there was only 2L between them at Hexham. He ran like this trip would suit better, but he is still a maiden and his prominent placing that night is another reason why I don't think the form is that strong. Mickey Miller has already been beaten by Absainte this season. Mahlers Star has been nibbled already at really big prices and I guess they are going on his placed form in 2017. He certainly looks like he doesn't stay 3m when he has pulled up in both points, one in 2018 and one a month ago. I guess he could come on for the run, but this is likely to be a strong test at the trip and he might not see it out. Bedford Forrest was 2nd in this in 2017, but is hard to fancy otherwise and Baile Liam looks to have no chance. That just leaves the main selection Teeton Power. Now she does like to make the running and the one concern is the amount of front runners in the race, but I think she is good enough to be able to see off the other pace rivals and as Tabitha showed yet again at Kelso on Sunday she is good from the front. For me she has the best form in the race. Last season she was a good 2nd at Cheltenham to Popaway when simply not lasting home and it was the same in the John Corbet Cup. This season she slipped up on her return and then just held on from Sand Blast, who granted didn't really boost the form on Tuesday, but that was basically her first run of the season. She pulled up last time, but was dismounted and I suspect not all was right with the horse. Trip and track should be ideal for her and if she can see off the other front runners I think she can make all. In my view she should be the favourite. So Teeton Power is the main bet. Behind her it's quite tight as Fair Exchange and Fateh could be capable of running big races and although I am not huge on Stage One's form he should enjoy the track. I will save on Absainte though who doesn't look like she has to lead and has looked progressive this season. Teeton Power 2pts @ 7/1 with William Hill and BetVictor Absainte 1pt @ 7/2 with William Hill and BetVictor
  5. 1 point
    CzechPunter

    French Open 2019

    Marin Cilic (-1.5 sets) to beat Grigor Dimitrov at 2.00 with Unibet Worth a shot at evens imo. Not only does Cilic have a good record against Dimitrov, but the Bulgarian has also been in a truly dreadful form recently and even nearly lost against Tipsarevic in the first round despite dominating in the first two sets. The surface obviously plays into Dimitrov's hands, but everything else should be in the Croat's favor.
  6. 1 point
    four-leaf

    French Open 2019

    Leonardo Mayer to beat Jiri Vesely at 1.65 with 888sport Leonardo owns a 5-1 record in this matchup having won 3 of them on clay and once in 5 sets in Roland Garros. I think Leo will take this again, Jiri isn't really good enough to compete at top 100 level right now. He struggles in challengers nowadays.
  7. 1 point
    Gully_22

    French Open 2019

    If he comes back from this dimitrov should just retire lol
  8. 1 point
    four-leaf

    French Open 2019

    Albert Ramos to beat Laslo Djere at 2.15 with betsson It's all about probability in this one and I rate the probability of this happening higher than the current odds of 2.15. Albert has been in the quarterfinal of Roland Garros before and knows how to play in grand slam events while Laslo is 1-6 in GS maindraw matches. I expect Laslo to run into some major difficulties against Albert. They met once before and Albert won 2-1 back in 2017 in Marrakech. Peter Gojowczyk to beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga at 4.50 with Unibet Peter has beaten J-W before and most importantly on indoor hard and even in a 5 set Davis cup thriller by 8-6 in the decider. I think Peter could have enough to win this again even though his form isn't the best but neither is J-Ws form and I think clay suits Peter a little bit better and he's got the matchup advantage and knows how to find break opportunities in the J-W serve. Better chances of an upset than the odds suggest at least. Sveta Kuznetsova to beat (-1.5 sets) Kristina Kucova at 2.04 with Unibet Sveta could not have asked for a more favorable first round opponent. Kristina hates clay and she's never won a set in Roland Garros maindraw and her last two visits have been first round straight sets losses to Shuai Zhang 6-0 7-5 and Sam Stosur 7-5 6-0. She's done well to reach the maindraw from qualification but her opponents weren't really hard at all but she still had problems in last match against Katie Swan but won in a decider. Sveta should have many opportunities to break and could win in straight sets. Kateryna Kozlova to beat Bernarda Pera at 2.35 with Unibet Kateryna most famously knocked out reigning champion Jelena Ostapenko in straight sets last season in Roland Garros first round and later lost in second round. Bernarda Pera also won her first round match in Roland Garros last season and she beat Elena Vesnina but I don't rate that performance at all and she later also lost in second round. Anyway I don't see what makes Kateryna the underdog in this one. Kateryna has a higher ranking now (66), close to her career high 62 and I rate beating Jelena Ostapenko in straight sets higher than Bernarda beating a Elena Vesnina with retirement in her sights. Should be more even odds here I think. Roger Federer to beat (-6.5) Lorenzo Sonego at 1.97 with betsson I think I have to rate Rogers chances pretty high here. I don't think Lorenzo will get many looks into Rogers serve but Roger should find ways to find breakpoint opportunities on the Lorenzo serve. It might take some time but once Roger gets a break it could be a rout. This could even be covered in 4 sets.
  9. 1 point
    Hermes

    French Open 2019

    Few personal opinions apart from the picks above. I agree Millman is capable of an upset of Zverev.I'll be taking a side one on this one. I was looking forward to take on Cameron Norrie before Kyrgios pulled out.No one believes he's really ill n he hates clay season with a passion. Weren't he to take on a serious player in the 2nd round I'd have considered him to go on a bit further. Mikael Ymer will be decent n I expect him to win his first match art RG.I'd stay away from Jarry Vs DelPo.Most unpredicted 1st round match. Kohlschreiber is a formidable opponent especially this year but I think there's value in taking R Haase against him based on motivation.Also Lloyd Harris prefers hard courts to clay I don't see why he's the favourite to beat Rosol who despite being poor in form on a good day is decent on Clay.Thoughts @South_African_Punter
  10. 1 point
    DrO

    French Open 2019

    David Goffin (-2.5 sets) to beat Ricardas Berankis at 1.77 with local bookie Soccerbet Although Gofan is not in the best shape, I still believe he can win in straight sets. Berankis did beat him in Doha at the opening of the new season,but it was under different circumstances. In 2019 Bearnkis have played one (yes,just one) match on clay and it was in Geneva last week. He lost against Uchida 46 46. So,if Uchida was able to beat him without dropping a set,why wouldn't Goffin do the same? I feel like Lithuanian is here just to collect prize money.
  11. 1 point
    CzechPunter

    French Open 2019

    Btw, I don't know what this means, but I guess that you shouldn't be backing Williams to win the tournament .
  12. 1 point
    CzechPunter

    French Open 2019

    Alright, going for a couple already and wishing everyone good luck . Diane Parry to beat Vera Lapko at 5.10 with Unibet Unibet have a 1st set rule for retirements and great odds for this, so I'm going to bite. I've been watching Parry recently and she's not bad at all, she can certainly play well in France and I'm sure that she's going to play her heart out here. Obviously, there's a massive quality gap between the two and Lapko should be able to win this 6-2 6-2 or so on that basis, but she's been pretty poor so far this season and even retired last time out, so I don't really trust her. She's certainly not a player that you should be adding to your first round accas for various reasons and I'm even willing to go against her at massive odds. Barbora Strycova to beat Samantha Stosur at 1.60 with Pinnacle Stosur has been falling away from the top for quite a few years now and the return to clay hasn't really helped her either, she was really poor last time out and I can't even remember seeing her play well. Strycova can have her bad days, of course, but she's been doing much better than Stosur recently and the fact that this isn't reflected all that much in her W/L ratio is down to some bad draws imo. J.Tipsarevic/G.Dimitrov - Over 3.5 sets at 1.90 with Betsson Although I don't really see Dimitrov failing yet again, Tipsarevic should be able to hit freely and get something. Both guys are the types to get stuck into some sort of a dogfight with plenty of nerves and momentum shifts, so I like the odds for this going on for at least a little while.
  13. 1 point
    Fader

    Q School - Event 1

    This gets start on Saturday. There are 3 events and 4 go through in each event. Looking through the like of Duffy, Hull, and Ross Muir all look likely to prevail, however I don't want to be taking 3/1 or 4/1 for a player to win 4 games+. So I'm going to look for the bigger prices here at very small stakes to try and get one of the suprise packages. I've mainly gone for players who have "been there and done it" with a few younger guys in there. Mainly though, you tend to find at the latter stages the youngsters bottle it abit. So remember 3 qualify, not just one. 2pts A.Hugil to qualify for Event 1 9/1 ladbrokes 1pt S.Vahedi to qualify for Event 1 25/1 ladbrokes 1pt P.Davison to qualify for Event 1 16/1 ladbrokes 1pt C.Totten to qualify for Event 1 30/1 paddypower 1pt H.Akbar to qualify for Event 1 25/1 ladbrokes 0.5pts W.Yize to qualify for Event 1 20/1 ladbrokes 0.5pts W.Zepeng to qualify for Event 1 50/1 paddypower 0.5pts B.Cini to qualigy for Event 1 50/1 ladbrokes 0.25pts A.Hill to qualify for Event 1 66/1 ladbrokes 0.25pts B.Hall to qualify for Event 1 150/1 paddypower
  14. 1 point
    Fader

    Q School - Event 1

    This could have been a hell of a result. In the semi-finals, had 4 all going in to 4 semi-finals. Akbar managed to lose to a child and then 3 finalists, 50/1 Zepeng 2-0 up, loses 4-2. Hugil loses 4-3 to a respotted black but thankfully one did see it through in Vahedi, a nice 25/1 winner. I'll take a look tonight on the 2nd event.
  15. 1 point
    The final is still a couple of weeks away but i am seriously looking at the following.These are two evenly matched teams with two managers who would like to win the cup at all costs.The more the game goes on even the more the managers would be happy with extra time.Barring an early goal i am thinking of a draw in 90 minutes with odds of 3.40. AC Milan vs Juventus 2002-3 shootout,Man U and Chelsea 2007/8 shootout,Bayern vs Dortmund Robben winner last minute,Real Madrid vs A Madrid extra time shows that when domestic teams battle it in the final it will be very close.
  16. 0 points
    South_African_Punter

    French Open 2019

    @four-leaf isn't Simon somewhat injured? I think I read that somewhere.
  17. 0 points
    Hermes

    French Open 2019

    Felix Auger officially out.Groin injury incurred 1st set Vs Paire at Lyon Open final on Saturday.You have to feel for the guy.He also had a favourable draw all the way to 3R to meet Delpo as the 1st serious competition of his caliber in his quarter.Damn
  18. 0 points
    Hermes

    French Open 2019

    Sad for FAA if he is indeed injured.He was to make a run at US Open last year n now.He has no luck at Grand Slams.
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