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** July Naps Competition Result: 1st Gary66, 2nd BBBC, 3rd kenisbusy, 4th Johnrobertson. KO Cup Winner tonythepaint. Most Winners Budgie65: **

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Showing content with the highest reputation on 05/14/2019 in all areas

  1. west brom v villa Stefan johansen man marked jack grealish in the last game and kicked him a few times and was lucky not to be booked. Based on the assumption that he will man mark him again i have backed johansen to be carded at 11/4 with hills
    4 points
  2. Trotter

    Points System

    After reading the VDW thread I thought I'd check out another system from decades ago when I first got interested in racing. Basically just a Points system based on last 2 form figures, C, D and CD wins Last 2 runs 1 = 5 pts 2 = 3 pts 3 = 2 pts Bonus points C = 1 pt D = 1 pt CD = 3 pts The problem with the system once you got to know a bit more about the sport was that it took no account of class. For example a horse that had won two Sellers and one had been over 12 furlongs at Epsom would be top rated for the Derby ahead of a horse that had won The Racing Post Trophy and Guineas as it's last two runs. Obviously ridiculous. But once you start looking behind the points and assessing class and going and all the other variables that don't show up in a pure points system you might as well forget it and just study the race as you normally do. The purpose of a points system (or any system) is to take the subjective element out and throw up random selections that have some logic behind them So anyway I had a brainwave ...…… If you stick to the lowest class of handicap then the form figures and bonus points will almost certainly have been earned in that class or higher ……. you can't have horses with points earned in lower classes of race because there aren't any (they could be Sellers but they're usually on a par with class 6). So I thought I'd stick to Class 6 Handicaps on the Flat and Class 5 over Jumps. Top two rated (in one of the races today there is joint 2nd rated) Here's today's selections ……... Tues 14/05 Bev 4.50 - Jazz Hands 5, Nordano 3 Chep 4.00 - Panatos 8 (NB), Aristocracy 5 Chep 5.00 - Ascot Day 4, Boycie 4 Ffos 5.30 - All The Hunter 5, Avonmore 4 Ffos 8.00 - Centreofexcellence 9 (NAP), Alltimegold 5, Babytaggle 5 Let's see how they get on. I've given the NAP to the biggest rating and NB to the next biggest
    2 points
  3. I am going to start at Perth because to me that race is simple. Mr Mercurial should be about 1/2 for this contest. On form he has loads in hand over this lot with the only real concern is his jockey timing it right, but I find it hard to see how he will throw it away against this lot. This race is weaker than the one he won over course and distance last month and he looks a good thing. Black River is close to him in the betting, but his even though he has lots of 1s and 2s in his form this season it isn't anywhere near as strong as Mr Mercurial's. He beat Snow Castle last time and that one was 2nd at Hexham in the Heart Of All England which wasn't a strong race. He was beaten a head by Dark Mahler and we saw at Southwell on Tuesday that he isn't up to the sort of standard Mr Mercurial can run to. The beating of Ravished in February does look good as that has run well in 2 Hunter Chases since, but he has improved a lot since that run so again I don't think it is strong form. Killer Crow seems to be going backwards and even so his form isn't good enough to win. Greyed A didn't run too badly on his first start for new connections on Bank Holiday Monday when 3rd at Witton Castle. His rules form prior to that was useful in the context of this race if you take out the fav although I just wonder if he might prefer softer ground. The other two are hard to fancy at all. It all points towards Mr Mercurial winning another Hunter Chase here. Black River should be good enough to follow him home and Greyed A could well be best of the rest. Mr Mercurial 4pts @ 5/6 with Bet365 and William Hill The Newton Abbot race is a bit trickier. Dineur would have to really bounce back to form to play a part and it is hard to see happening based on what he has done so far this season. Im All Set shouldn't be good enough and the outsider wouldn't win if he started now! Herbert Park is an even trickier ride than Mr Mercurial as he showed at Exeter last month. He beat Saffron Wells last time back in a point which is a useful enough effort. Ultimately he probably needs the front two in the market to disappoint to beat them, but on a line through Master Baker he is closely matched with Southfield Vic. Having said that though he disappointed at Fontwell on quick ground after that and surely the ground will be riding on the fast side of good which would be a concern for me. It seems some people are taking a chance on him as he is blue on Oddschecker as I write this, but I am happy to pass over him. Road To Riches would win this if he repeated his 3rd at Aintree which was a superb effort. The problem is he went to Fairyhouse and was a massive disappointment and pulled up. Even though that was a better race than this one if he put in the same sort of effort he certainly won't be winning this. I also wonder if he needs softer ground nowadays. His market rival Southfield Vic made hard work of winning at Wincanton although he wasn't entirely helped by the fact he was hampered by Woodfleet and nearly came to grief. In the end he was a fairly comfortable winner and the Newbury run when just beaten by Master Baker was good. I think this is a hard race. Road To Riches might win, but there seems enough doubts to take him on. I can see why people are taking a chance with Herbert Park, but he doesn't make things easy for himself and I wonder if he might need softer ground as well. Southfield Vic is a course and distance winner who has no ground concerns so that tips the balance in his favour for me. Southfield Vic 1pt @ 6/4 with Bet365 and BetVictor
    2 points
  4. Any thoughts on tomorrow match in Rome playing Krygios vs Ruud? I was surprised to see Krygios quoted 1.72 especially after solid performance today vs Medvedev. Ruud has a solid clay season so far but it was all about winning players ranked over 50.
    2 points
  5. Ok ok, calm down calm down folks? My aplogies for writing war & peace. You may want to make a cuppa before you sit down to read this, and your thoughts, as ever, are welcome. On the face of it, it seems a strange decision. Brighton aren't a big club, and CH has kept us up. What more do we want! But let me give you my "insiders" view. Tony Bloom used a notable word in his statement yesterday, "RISK". That sums it up for me. There is one person at Brighton, that the supporters trust more than anyone. That is the Chairman, who we are incredibly lucky to have. TB, is a fan, he has deep pockets, is a very astute businessman, and the 3rd generation of Blooms to be on the board at the club. Here is a Chairman, who prefers to stand with the travelling fans at away games, than sit in the boardroom. TB, is a maths genius, and a professional gambler who has moved into property. One of his companies is STAR LIZARD, which places bets using Asian bookmakers, and it's rumoured that you have to part with £1m to join as a customer! Remember that when B&HA got permission to build the new stadium, they had no money, the banks were crashing, and they had to do a deal with the University to get funding. Part of the West Stand was going to house classrooms! TB cam along, wrote a cheque for £100m, scrapped the Univeristy idea, instead going for corporate options. A young, unproven manager, with bright ideas was appointed, and Gus Poyet started to transorm the playing side. It was refreshing after an era that saw Mickey Adams and Mark McGhee, play some unattractive and outdated football. Since then, TB has also spent £20+m on a new traing ground, acquire a Belgian 2nd Division club to place the non EUROPEAN imports, and now acquired land next to the training ground, to develop into community sports facilities, housing & retail (including an IKEA). He has recruited top people to run the club, including Paul Barber as Chief Exec, a top recruitment & worldwide scouting system, and most recently acquired Dan Ashworth as Techical Director from the FA. If you look at what DA has done at the FA for the England set up, i.e. Get a young manager in, develop the youth, and play attacking football, it was clear that something at the club was going to have to change. TB has smashed the transfer record numerous times recently, buying the likes of AJ for £25m, Locadia, Propper, Bassouma & Bernado. Mostly Good attacking players that have a pedigree. Now, if you are TB, DA or PB, watching your team pick up 3 points from 23 games, not score for over 6hrs, not see your new recruits perform to their potential, not see any more youngsters follow in the steps of Dunky & Solly March, suffer the humilitation of a 5-0 defeat at home to Bournemouth, suffer a 2-0 home loss in a relegation battle with Cardiff, see survival by 2 points, and quite frankly, only survive because Palace beat Cardiff, then something was going to have to be done. This poses a significant RISK to Tony Bloom's considerable investement. Rumours also abound that there was unrest in the dressing room, with the players wanting to play more expansive attacking football, which CH refused. Our games against Wolves & Spurs didn't see a shot on target. Our FA CUP SF against City was a dull stifling affair, and the club has seen its image & reputation suffer in the media coverage that followed. Very damaging for the brand of the club. So TB, has a long term plan, and wants Brighton to become a sustainable football club, with a return on his investment. (Although the stadium loan was interest free) One of my customers, who is very well connected with the club, told me he went to see TB in his office, and he is surrounded by computer screens running algorithms (on what the outcomes will be if he signs certain players.). He will be doing the same with managers. Pretty much every decision TB has made since he took over, has been the right one. Appointing Sami Hypia wasn't a good idea, but the club had their hands tied with FFP, and had to go for a cheap option. In my humble opinion, we were certain for relegation if CH had stayed. TB has come to the same conclusion using his algorithms. I think you will see a younger manager come in again, with fresh ideas, and an attacking style of play. DA went to see Swansea play, and said it was the best football he had ever seen. See this as Dan Ashworth making his mark on the club. Graham Potter, therefore is the clear favourite. Frank Lampard is on a shortlist of 3, but perhaps it's a bit early for him. TB is prepared to spend some money, with rumours of players like Juan Mata being bought in. Perhaps Rafa could be tempted away from Newcastle if he doesn't get the assurances from Ashley. So, thanks CH, you have done a tremendous job, and every Brighton fan will be sad to see you leave. But it was time for a change. He has reached his ceiling with Brighton, but Tony Bloom, clearly has a much higher ceiling to aim for. So folks, take the 5/2 about them being relegated, but now, I wouldn't touch it myself. One thing is for sure, Chris won't be out of a job for long, and if he ends up in the Championship, then I'd be lumping on that team for promotion.
    2 points
  6. Known to everyone, what does a Championship team mean to go to the Premier League and what benefits are there for such a great event. We are currently in the semi-final phase of the barrage, and today we are expecting the rematch between West Brom and Aston Villa. The "peasants" were imposed on their seat Saturday afternoon with 2-1, reversing the scoring in the second half. A strong counter, not forgetting that it is a hate derby. The two teams will give them everything to qualify for the final and nothing can be ruled out. However, according to what we saw in the first game, the most likely betting scenario is to score both teams WEST BROMWICH ALBION vs ASTON VILLA @@ Both team to score, oddds 1.62
    2 points
  7. Well Done all winners and thanks Graham for running all these comps
    2 points
  8. My first ever prize win on PuntersLounge!!!? Thanks, BillyHills for a wonderful comp!!!
    2 points
  9. Monthly Naps Competition Rules If you are a new member or just want to enter for the first time, simply post in the Daily NAPS thread for that day and you'll be included. The competition will be run each calendar month. The winner will be the tipster with the most accumulated profit over the month. Top 25 qualifiers will be automatically entered in the following months KO Cup. If totals are level for any prizes the amount of winners selected takes precedence. (then amount of bets placed) 1pt win or 0.50pts EW each day allowed. (Losses will be incurred for losers)(Win bet taken if not specified) STRICTLY no editing of posts containing tips, if you need to correct something do it in another post, any late edits will result in disqualification from the competition. 1 bet per day, Max. If a member posts twice the latest one will count towards the competition. If a member selects more than one horse in the same post, it will be void (unless a reserve is stated) A minimum of 15 bets is required to qualify for any prizes in that particular month, including qualification for the followings months KO Cup. (NR's at Abandoned meetings do not count towards bet total) Any race can be selected as long as it is covered by the Racing Post / ATR. For races in Hong Kong where there is no SP we will use the Dividend price published in the Racing Post and for EW bets we will use William Hill Industry price on their results service. As of May 1st 2020, bets will count for the day the meeting started, regardless of the race time but all selections must be posted on the forum on the actual day of the competition. (this satisfies the 1 bet per day rule) Reserves will be allowed in case of doubts about original selection running. All bets posted must be at least 5 mins before the race time (no exceptions) and include the Time, Course, Price and Selection. Early prices can be taken but must be available at the time of the post in the competition thread, these will be checked against Odds-checker and if the price was not available then SP will be used. Bookies allowed: Bet365, BetVictor, Paddy Power, Betfair, William Hill, Betfred (All BOG for competition purposes) Prices can't be changed once posted and must be in the original post, the first price taken is the only one that will count, all edits can be seen by moderators. Any bets with no price quoted or eligible bookmaker stated will be taken at SP. No Exchange Prices are allowed. R4 5p and 10p will be waived for the purpose of the competition. If a R4 deduction takes the price less than the SP then the bet will revert to the SP. R4 will be taken from the William Hill results service. No conditional bets or special offers by any bookmaker will apply to the competition. On the final two days of the month anyone found posting a tactical selection (ie Copying) which gains an unfair advantage (whether that be to decide a prize winning opportunity or a Cup qualification place) will be penalised and that selection will be deemed a loser. SP Bets only for races in USA, Hong Kong and Australia. *Bookies updated Feb 2020. KO CUP Rules Rules as follows: Top 25 finishers from the NAPS Final table will qualify, minimum required bets will be needed which is 15 All players will play in Qualifying Round and top 8 scorers go forward to next round. Pairings seeded from finishing position after qualifying, 1v8, 2v7 and so on. Matches will be played on each of the Saturdays of that month. 3 Selections required each round, plus reserves if you desire. 1pt Win or 0.50pt EW can be selected, if no stake included a win bet will be awarded. Player with most profit will go forward to the next round, if a tie, a playoff will be played on the following day. From the 2nd Round onwards we operate a First come first served basis, player can not have the same selection as his opponent in his 3 main picks, if this happens it will be regarded as a loser, reserves will not be used in this case. The deadline for bets to be posted is 2pm All 3 selections must be posted at the same time in one post, no 10 minute ruling but before the 2pm deadline. Once in the head to head stages Selections can not be changed once your opponent has posted. Multiple horses from the same race is allowed. Reserves can be added in case of NR's but not if you or your opponents bet has started, so it makes sense to post the reserves in the original post. Horses can be posted after the deadline if a meeting is abandoned for any reason which includes selections. Prices can be taken as per the NAPS Table rules. Winner of the Cup will win £30 via PayPal account. Runner Up will win £10 via PayPal account. Prize Money £60 to the winner + Punters Lounge Merchandise £30 to the second + Punters Lounge Merchandise £20 to the third + Plus Punters Lounge Merchandise £10 to the fourth £20 Most Winners with a profit of at least £10 £30 KO CUP winner £10 KO Cup Runner Up ALLOW UP TO 14 DAYS FOR PAYMENT (Will be a lot earlier most of the time) Punters Lounge Merchandise Updated 3rd April 2019: You can now win unlimited Punters Lounge merchandise, even if you have won them before. It consists of the mug with a wraparound logo, updated to our new 3D logo recently. You'll also win a pack of 10 pens, which have also been upgraded to a much better quality. See below Merchandise can be sent to: We deliver to: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, French Guiana, French Polynesia, Germany, Gibraltar, Greece, Greenland, Guadeloupe, Guam, Hong Kong, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Malaysia, Malta, Martinique, Mexico, Monaco, the Netherlands, New Caledonia, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Puerto Rico, Réunion, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, the United States of America and U.S. Virgin Islands. Claiming Your Prize Prizes will be paid through Paypal Email team@punterslounge.com with your Paypal email address, Prize Amount and your PL username. You have 7 days to do so or the prize will be forfeited.
    1 point
  10. First of all well done to all of our winning players All prizes can be claimed by sending your PayPal addy, PL Name, and prize being claimed to: team@punterslounge.com Any PL Merchandise winners need to send your home address to the same place. (Please don't contact me as I have nothing to do with any prize money) Allow a week to get all of the names in and distribute money. Overall Top 3 All win Punters Lounge Merchandise Craig Bluenose Mabs Like3Fish Divisional Awards Many thanks for your continued support, BH @Craig bluenose @MABS @LIKE2FISH @Danshot @Milanisimus @Bedlam @Wivz_03 @terminator1 @Baracca @Gzeven @botmission @nawoo @John S @waggy @bymatrix @Alex Bird @Nosey-P @ian309 @Shaunbear
    1 point
  11. If I had known Ballotin was going to go off 11/10 I certainly wouldn't have worried about looking for a forecast in the race. It was a crazy price as he should have been at least the 4/7 he was the night before and given the way he won even that would have been value. He never looked in any danger and he clearly still has a high level of ability. Not sure there is too much left for him this season now. Shimla Dawn jumped to his right and as Ballotin was going the better he took up the running much earlier than I thought he would and it meant Shimla Dawn downed tools and had no chance of finishing 2nd after that. At the right level if he can get an easy lead then he will win again. Dark Mahler was really well backed, but he wasn't in the same league as the winner. It is hard to think he achieved a great deal really. I think Martha's Benefit is getting fit for a summer handicap campaign as well as running to get her handicap mark down. She should dip below 100 after this and I suggest keeping a close eye on her over the summer.
    1 point
  12. Bet365 offers only 1.72 on Nick and I still find this as value.
    1 point
  13. First Hunter Chase of the week comes up at Southwell and David Maxwell will be looking to increase his lead in the leading Hunter Chase jockey title. This time he rides Ballotin who looks the most likely winner. He was the only horse to give Road To Rome a race in the Walrus at Haydock and paid for that when ending up finishing 4th. He then went to Leicester over a trip that was a bit short of the ideal, but it didn't matter and he won easily over 2m. He beat Double Ross that day who then went and won at Chepstow. After that he was trying to give Arthur's Secret a race at Ludlow but came down at the 4th last. It was a pretty nasty fall and he was lame afterwards which is probably why he has been missing since. I know some people actually thought he was still in with a chance of winning and although I disagree with them it was still a top effort especially in the context of this race. Shimla Dawn somehow went off favourite for this race last year, but could only finish 5th to Galway Jack. I didn't fancy him at all that day because he wasn't going to get an easy lead and he could never get to the front. Compare that to Musselburgh when I did put him up and he got an easy lead and never saw another rival and won by 15L. He ruined any chance at Aintree when making a mistake at the first and then slithered on landing. He should get an easy lead here although I imagine Maxwell will keep him very close. Hurricane Vic and Martha's Benefit don't make much appeal so Dark Mahler is the only other possible winner. Dark Mahler and Shimla Dawn made their reappearances in the same race at Sheriff Hutton in January and the former finished a well beaten 5th with the latter pulling up. I wouldn't read too much that though as they have both improved for that run with Dark Mahler landing a hat-trick. The problem is I am not sure the form is overly strong. Granted he won by 25L earlier in the month and the horse he beat won on Sunday, but that one won in a very slow time and was 1/2. The drop in trip shouldn't be a concern and it should be a truly run race to help on that front. Ballotin should win this and he is the right price for me. I think Shimla Dawn is the most likely to finish 2nd as I can see him making a bold bid from the front before Maxwell picks him up in the straight. It seems sensible to cover on Dark Mahler to come 2nd as well though given he is the only other one with a chance for me to finish 2nd. Ballotin to beat Shimla Dawn 1.5pts f/c Ballotin to beat Dark Mahler 0.5pts f/c
    1 point
  14. Nick Kyrgios to beat Casper Ruud at 1.91 with William Hill Not thrilled to be backing Kyrgios again, but he delivered for me today and the opening odds at William Hill are definitely worth taking. Also thinking about backing Chardy in some form, but not sure yet.
    1 point
  15. Trotter

    Points System

    Yes, that's exactly what it was ……… I'm sure it could have been summed up in a paragraph but I think he padded it out to fill a little booklet I don't remember ever buying it but maybe I did
    1 point
  16. Thanks @BillyHills Enjoyed that Thanks also to @avongirl for posting on the poker forum so a few of us knew about the comp Congrats to my fellow poker bud @Ian309 for the ITM. Didn't realise I would jumped straight to Division 1! Thought it would be step by step! Gulp! Congrats to all winners and ITM's Didn't know you was a sports betting boss as well @Danshot
    1 point
  17. I know bet365 offer a forecast price and I think it’s bog as well. Not sure if other bookies do that. If not then you either take the csf dividend or stick it on with the tote. Hard to recommend one over the other as wouldn’t say either one has the upper hand when paying more than the other. What I would say though is at the front end of the market there is unlikely to be too much difference between the two. You could always split your stakes between them if you want both bases covered.
    1 point
  18. I'm going to wait for team news as the selection of Whelan or hourihane will give an indication of villa's approach. If they pick Whelan then this is a more defensive option, if hourihane plays it will be a more open game (as demonstrated at the weekend).
    1 point
  19. richard-westwood

    VAN DER WHIEL

    2nd yesterday .....1st 1st 2nd from 3 races ....cant argue theres something there .....some good classy races coming up next few days and im off work so ill get stuck in and rate a few tonight or in morning
    1 point
  20. ralphie7

    Quick System

    Tuesday 14/05/2019 Sedgefield 02:40 ISTIMRAAR f/c. 2/5 stake = 10 pts WIN Ffos Las 05:30 ALI THE HUNTER f/c. 8/11 stake = 10 pts WIN
    1 point
  21. I'd like to join next season please
    1 point
  22. Many thanks and much respect to @BillyHills for running this comp
    1 point
  23. I´m also on Villa, but only on DNB. Without Gayle and Robson-Kanu - WBA only had Rodriguez in Front. For me little bit easier to Handle for Villa Defensive. Also WestBrom must made the Game. Could be difficult in my opinion. My call is 0-1 or 0-2
    1 point
  24. cheers billy hills great compo again
    1 point
  25. 640 S: Ballyvic Boru 3/1 150 B: Quiet Place 10/11 500 C: Iconic Girl 7/2 710 S: The Drone 11/4 Lucky 15
    1 point
  26. He could be a shout for next Celtic manager, no chance of Neil Lennon getting it permanently.
    1 point
  27. look forward to next season. 1st div too division 7, that's worse than admin!!!!
    1 point
  28. Great competition, see you next season!
    1 point
  29. I am still struggling with sheffield united's promotion ffs. brighton 5/2 to be relegated with hills- i have got stuck into that
    1 point
  30. Thanks for all the hard work Graham, brilliant competition
    1 point
  31. New Divisions for next season Div 1 Div 2 Div 3 Div 4 Div 5 Div 6 Div 7 Div 8 Div 9
    1 point
  32. Villa never really got going in the 1st leg but I'll probably risk them again at 7/4, as I just think they have way more talent and Gayle will be a big loss.
    1 point
  33. Well done Barry, and the win takes you to the top of the league Next week we have our PLO leg. It's the normal structure, but with a 3000 starting stack so should allow for plenty of play. If we could just get all 12 of you from legs 1 and 2 playing together in the same leg it would be great! I'm already registered
    1 point
  34. Liverpool vs Wolves The second match that will have a possible influence on the destination of the Premier League trophy is the clash between Liverpool and Wolves at Anfield in a 3pm kick-off on Sunday. The Reds need a win to keep their hopes alive but also need to hope that Manchester City don't win at Brighton. It seems insane that Liverpool could end the season on 97 points and still not win the Premier League title. Such is the brilliant effort by both themselves and Manchester City this season. Jurgen Klopp's side have reached the Champions League Final which will offer some consolation if this game ends in failure to capture the championship. They will need to navigate their way past a Wolves side that have beaten all of the top six teams in the Premier League table across all competitions this season. Wolves are looking set to qualify for the Europa League via a 7th place finish provided Manchester City beat Watford in the FA Cup Final. Don't ask me what the implications of the winners of the Champions League and Europa League being English are but I'm not 100% sure it means England will get extra spots in the competitions. Anyway, Nuno Santo's side have won their last three straight league games and that means the Portuguese manager will pick an unchanged side for the 15th time this season. The statistics do favour a Liverpool victory here. Liverpool have won the last four Premier League meetings and only lost 1 of the previous 9 top flight encounters. The Reds are also on a winning streak of 8 league games and possess the best undefeated run of 16 league matches in the top flight. If Liverpool do avoid defeat in this game then it will be the first time in 39 years that they have remained unbeaten at home in two consecutive seasons. It is also 30 years since Liverpool last lost a home game on the final day of the season. Sadio Mane's 16 goals at Anfield in the league this season is the most by any player in the Premier League to score at home. I think backing a solid Liverpool win and Mane to score anytime will do the trick here. Liverpool HT/FT @ 1.91 with Ladbrokes Anytime Scorer: Sadio Mane @ 2.10 with Sportingbet
    1 point
  35. That is a good enough reason for me to join in the fun tonight :-)
    1 point
  36. It would appear that I am back ! Just logged into Stars on the off chance... and it lets me play. There has been no email from Stars, no notification, no explanation, no apology, not a sausage. Their customer service really does redefine incompetence. See you back on the felt tomorrow
    1 point
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