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Showing content with the highest reputation on 04/21/19 in all areas

  1. Falcao @ 80/1 Southwell 15:05 - pp
    3 points
  2. Ffos Las 14:15 Mac Bella 28/1 EW Betfair
    2 points
  3. A 4 runner race and a match are at Fakenham on Easter Monday which sums up the lack of runners in points this weekend. May as well start with the match as Sir Jack Yeats will win unless he comes to grief. I'm not going to put him up but have to say he should be shorter than 1/4 given he was miles in front of his rival here on Gold Cup day. As much as I saw the Alan Hill team have 3 winners at Kimble on Saturday I would be surprised if he won this with Allie Beag as he has a bit too find based on form lines with the others although this drop in trip should help and to be fair he probably shouldn't be as big a price as he is as this isn't a strong heat. Granted the two at the head of the market have good previous rules form, but I'm not sure how much ability either has right now. I was more than happy to oppose Cyrius Moriviere at Stratford and he showed very little. He has been 2nd in a point at Kingston Blount beaten by a horse called Free Of Charge who was having his first start for a couple of years, but was rated in the mid 90s when last seen for Gordon Elliott. Those two were a long way clear of the rest, but chances are it isn't strong form. Tabitha Worsley has the ride which is obviously a plus. On Llancillo Lord's last run in Ireland in November 2016 he finished a 3L 2nd to Presenting Percy. He only had 1 good run in 4 starts over here and that came in November when a close 7th at Chepstow over 2m off a mark of 117. He disappointed after that though and has bled in the past. He only made £1k at the sales in January, but he made a winning pointing debut for new connections at Maisemore last Sunday. He won by 12L in a fair enough time although the final circuit time was very slow which suggests they went too quick early on. That form is very weak although like I say it was an easy win. What you wont see in the form is that Postbridge won on Saturday at Higham. It was only a match, but he beat a solid yardstick 35L. Now chances are his rival didn't run his race, but the time was good given how easily he won. He ran in a point here last Sunday and finished 3rd in a decent enough contest and the weekend before that he was beaten a neck at High Easter by a horse who is 4/4 this season. Granted there must be a chance he doesn't run because he ran on Saturday, but it certainly doesn't put me off backing him and for me he has the best form in the race this season. Crazily he was put in at 18/1 by Betfair and Paddy's but it lasted 3 minutes and he is now 4/1. I personally think that is still value as based on this season's form he should be favourite and he is the bet. Postbridge 2pts @ 4/1 with William Hill, Betfair and Paddy Power
    1 point
  4. Kukuszkin to beat Berrettini at 2.30 with Pinnacle Kukuszkin lead 2:1 in h2h against Berrettini . Last time Berrettini won ,but he won two sets in tie breaks and them was very close . This is classical 50/50 match so I dont know why Kukuszkin is dog here .. Berrettini played really bad against Dimitrow in Monte Carlo and Kukuszkin played well against Chardy and Tsitsipas ,he lose against Tsitsipas 2:0 but I watched this match and in my opinion he should won then at least one set . Xu to beat Ma in An-Ning at 1.74 with Pinnacle Xu is on fire now and she should easy win against Ma . Ma don`t played on clay last time and she is worse player than Xu . Odds are falling fast .
    1 point
  5. Sebastian Korda to beat Milan Zekic at 1.66 with Pinnacle Stefan Kozlov to beat Alexander Zhurbin at 2.38 with Pinnacle Yan Bai to beat Sriram Balaji at 1.69 with Pinnacle Enough has already been said about Yan Bai last week, this week should be no different, he has a 2-0 record against Balaji, who has even played just four matches so far in this season. Over in the USA, I fancy the currently high-flying and very talented Korda to beat Zekic, who's never done anything of note and who's now relegated to struggle in smaller tournaments imo. Finally, I find some value in Kozlov to beat Zhurbin. Now - Kozlov hasn't really achieved what pretty much everyone has been expecting from him and he's yet to replicate his good past seasons, but I'd say that he's still better than Zhurbin, who's also incidentally on a poor losing streak at the moment. I wouldn't back Kozlov at 2.00 or below, but 2.38 is a price I like.
    1 point
  6. Well done Craig, two on the trot to take the lead in the overall table Awesome start. This month we're trying out a double points boost in the final leg to try and counter the drop in numbers we tend to see playing leg 4 as people believe they are out of the running for the added value podium. So this means anyone could still be in with a chance of getting in the league money. The game is set up, hope everyone will give it a good turnout.
    1 point
  7. Tennys Sandgren to beat Tommy Paul at 2.37 with bet365 I have to say 2.37 is juicy enough for me on Tennys today so I have to justify a bet with 365 on Tennys. They met in challenger, Savannah semis 2017 on clay and Tennys won 2-1. This ofcourse could be a tight three set battle but I give Tennys the nod here for obvious reasons that he's collecting a lot of points on the challenger tour and he's dropped in ranking due to being unable to defend points from last season so ranked 111 now doesn't mean he's worse than last season. Tommy is ranked 204 and for a guy who never been ranked top 150 I feel that Tennys should take this more often than not.
    1 point
  8. Well, i think i need to explain, what value radar is. This is analytical tool made by me, i've took tennis matches from last 3 years and applied some math and AI. So i built a model that has 20-23% ROI, during the whole 3 years period. But there are several significant drawdowns for approximate 20% and i don't want anybody to lose 20 bets in a row. I thought that applying expert's knowledge would improve this model, that's why only ask for experts opinion, after 20 opinions i would share the result of combined machine and expert's analysis. For today i see value on Lajovic Dusan and South_African_Punter has the same opinion, hope this works.
    1 point
  9. well done John and good luck next week
    1 point
  10. Lajovic to beat Fognini at 2.75 with SportingBet So Fognini has done extremely well this week, beating the undisputed master of clay, a certain Rafael Nadal. He now joins an elite group of only 3 other players (I think) to have beaten Nadal at Monte Carlo. However, I personally feel was something "wrong" with Nadal this week, having looked extremely vulnerable in the previous game against Pella, being 5-1 down in the 1st set. A further interesting piece of information is that Fognini has always lost his subsequent match after beating Nadal. IF Fognini plays at his best, he will roast Lajovic, at a price 1.44, I simply don't see much value in betting on Fognini and feel that the value play here is on Lajovic.
    1 point
  11. Cardiff vs Liverpool OK, so @Tiffy's Brighton put a spanner in the works by grabbing a draw against Wolves. It's now over to my Cardiff side to try and pull off the near impossible by getting a win against Liverpool here to get back level on points with the Seagulls in this 4pm kick-off from the Cardiff City Stadium this afternoon. Cardiff kept their thin hopes of staying up in the top flight alive with the 2-0 win over Brighton in midweek. Neil Warnock has played down his team's chances of winning here. I mean, understandably so, our last victory over the Reds came back on 19th December, 1959. That was Bill Shankly's first game as Liverpool manager. We have lost 5 on the bounce against Liverpool in all competitions since then but one of those was the Capital One Cup Final defeat on penalties after a 2-2 draw. What a bloody emotional game that was! I seem to remember being quite drunk and getting topless behind the goal when Ben Turner scored that equaliser. That's another story anyway! Liverpool need to win here to leapfrog their title rivals Manchester City into first place. Jurgen Klopp's side have looked nervy over recent weeks. The good news for the travelling side is that they have no new injury concerns and will be relishing this latest challenge having scored 13 goals in their last 3 meetings with Cardiff. The stats don't show any favour towards Cardiff here at all. The major concern is the absence of Harry Arter through injury but also the potential injury of Aron Gunnarsson. If the Icelandic stalwart is out then we're screwed. We can cope without Arter but not him and Gunnarsson. My beloved Bluebirds have only won 2 of their last 8 home league games. We pushed Chelsea and Arsenal close at home but we were thoroughly destroyed by Manchester United, Manchester City, and Tottenham so our performances against the top sides might have been mixed but have brought no points. Sadly, I can't see us getting anything here. We gave Liverpool a good game up at Anfield before eventually succumbing to their attacking prowess. Maybe it'll be different in front of a fervent Cardiff City Stadium but I think Liverpool will have enough to win this game by 2 or 3 goals in the end. Our fate will be decided against Fulham and Crystal Palace, not necessarily in this game. Liverpool HT/FT @ 1.70 with Sportingbet Anytime Scorer: Mohamed Salah @ 1.91 with BetVictor
    1 point
  12. I’m on em. I reckon 90 percent of the time the odds are available. And my stake ain’t too shabby either.
    1 point
  13. That would be your call but I agree it's a big chunk to lose in terms of potential value. It will probably be the same every week though. We're talking about tips but up at 8:00 on the Racing Post website (and appearing in Saturday's paper) by a tipster with a proven track record. The prices won't usually last too long. All that said, this week a lot of bookmakers had a similar line for the corners and, last time I looked, you could still get 1.87 for +1 with 888 (effectively the same bet as +0.5).
    1 point
  14. Cubswin 2.05 Haydock 11/1 Bet365
    1 point
  15. Bologna 1 @ 2,25 Man. City 1 @ 1,30 Celta 1 @ 2,00 treble for 70,36 units
    1 point
  16. Good look today Each Way Value play on 4.15 Kempton-Embour @ 14-1 Bet 365
    1 point
  17. Man CIty v Tottenham------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- My feeling is that Spurs get well beaten in this game. A number of reasons. 1) City will be smarting from the CL defeat and out for revenge. 2) The City squad is much deeper than Spurs, and they can easily bring in fresh, high quality replacements 3) Pep will definitely not play such an immobile back line again. When attacked with pace they had no answers. Stones in for Kompany will make a huge difference.. 4) City will find a better way to mark Son out of the game. They will learn from previous mistakes and make adjustments. 5) A slight change of tactics. If the wing backs for City bomb forward, and the opponent plays narrow, they are nullified (City don't cross the ball in the air that much). But, having no wing backs at home opens up both flanks to be counter attacked (which is what Spurs did). City will not repeat the same mistakes. 6) Playing 2 games in such a short period, definitely favors the team playing twice at home. You sleep in your own bed (probably:), and are in your home environment. The other team travels 3 times. I like the home win and over 2.5 goals in this game. Cardiff v Liverpool----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Realistically a bonus game for Cardiff. Nobody expects anything from them today. 4 Fixtures left. Man United away, Liverpool at home, Fulham away and Crystal Palace at home. In 3 of these games they could be playing opponents who's season is over. The midweek win over Brighton, will make Liverpool's task very difficult here. The home team will definitely be up for the game. Realistically Cardiff have had a lot of dodgy decisions go against them. Maybe the wheel is turning. What goes around comes around, and they are due some decent fortune. Cardiff to pack the defense and snatch a goal, holding on for a 1-1 draw, ending Liverpool's title dream. Everton v Man United------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Are Man U going to make it into the CL spots this season? They won't take point/s off Man City, so at best they can get 76 points. Spurs should easily pass this, and Arsenal need just 10 points to equal it (beat them on goal difference). Arsenal have 2 home games against Brighton and Palace (6pts). I would expect 2 home wins there. Then they need a win and a draw in 3 away games (Leicester, Wolves and Burnley away). Very doable. I read somewhere that Man United players will lose up to 25% of their salaries if United don't qualify for Champions league. Maybe it will make it easier for United to shift them on. The way United are playing I would be surprised if they take all 3 points at Everton. The appointment of Solksjaer looks a premature disaster to me. It may have saved 50 million and a battle with Levy, but Potch should have been the man. Instead the have an unproven manager at the helm, who has zero track record. For players to demand Solksjaer be manager, is the equivalent of the inmates running the asylum. Ridiculous ! I watch United most games, and I don't see any plan, shape or game plan. It looks like a happier bunch of disorganized strangers (mercenaries), with no methodology or structure. Everton, coming off wins against Arsenal and Chelsea will be no pushovers here. Home double chance 1.67
    1 point
  18. Carl 4.00 - Cairnshill - win ay 6/5 bog bet365
    1 point
  19. So, Lyon scored too early to be matched so no bet there, both Irish games won. Saturday and Sunday selections are...
    1 point
  20. It's so late last week in Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur in the Champions League, especially on Wednesday night, that we expect to see their battle in the Championship. Frustration in the Guardiola team, which was out of line but remains the equally important goal of the championship, where it has no other room for loss. Surely we may not have seven goals in the match again, but we will have many goals MANCHESTER CITY vs TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR @@ +3.50 Over, odds 2,10
    1 point
  21. 2.25 Kempton EL GUMRYAH 1pt win 22/1 PaddyPower BOG
    1 point
  22. @StevieDay1983 could be a good bet this draw you've posted but I'm not brave enough to bet on it. I'll be focusing on tennis and snooker as usual.
    1 point
  23. Sumkindofking 2.40 Kempton (Win 7/1 Bet365) With over £30k to the winner, the 2.40 Kempton staying chase should be ultra-competitive. For that reason, I have eliminated some of the more fancied horses as their good form is in lesser races, this will be a lot tougher for them. Other horses can be ruled out based upon their age and the going. One horse who will relish the good ground is the top weight Sumkindofking who is a regular in these tough handicaps. Tom George’s young son Noel is the horse’s regular pilot and his 7lb claim will help ease the burden.
    1 point
  24. Birmingham (over 2.5) 2.00 Oxford (over 2.5) 2.15 Chesterfield (2) 2.37 15pt Treble please Sir BillyHills, master creator of all good competitions
    1 point
  25. hi 30pts win Newport county @ 3.30 cheers billy
    1 point
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