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Showing content with the highest reputation on 12/29/17 in all areas

  1. 2 points
    Darran

    Non-League Predictions > Dec 27th - 30th

    Boxing Day was a bit of a horror show, but hopefully we can end 2017 with a profit. I have 5 bets which will hopefully beat the weather. Ebbsfleet v Dagenham & Redbridge For me Dagenham are a worse version of last season side. Last season they looked very very good at times, but then threw in some right stinkers. This season they have still looked a very good side on occasions, but less so and have thrown in more stinkers. I think they should still have enough for the play-offs, but they hardly look a title winning side to me. When they beat Chester 4-0 on the TV the other week, they were shocking in the first half and whilst they did improve in the 2nd for me the game told us more about how bad Chester are at the moment than how good Dagenham are. That victory was one of just 3 away wins this season and they have lost their last two league games and you can add in a FA Trophy defeat to Hereford as well. I always try and read the Racing Post non-league tips and I thought their opposition of Ebbsfleet on Boxing Day was a strange one which was mainly based on the fact they thought Bromley were a classier side. Quite why the write thought that I don't know because I would be very surprised if Ebbsfleet didn't finish above them come April and of course they ended up winning the game. Their home form this season has been superb winning 7 and losing just twice and they have won 5 of their last 6 at home. They are now unbeaten in 4 and have won 3 of those. I tipped them up for a top 7 finish at the start of the season and they are now just 2 points off the play-offs. They are favs, but I would have them as stronger favs than they are so the 159/100 with Marathon looks an appealing price. Billericay v Dulwich Given how the pitch looked today I am not sure this game will go ahead, but if it does Dulwich are a value play. Billericay have been making hard work of wining their league games of late and they now face the 2nd best team in the league. I feel sorry for Dulwich because take Billericay out of things and they would be a very short price themselves to win the league. Obviously the home side should be favs, but Dulwich are too big. If you have a Betstars account they are biggest at 17/4, BetVictor are next at 21/5 and then if you are like me will have to take the 4/1 with Betfred. Harrow v Leatherhead Now Leatherhead's away form has been shocking so far this season. They won their first away game against Kingstonian in their first away game of the season, but given Kingstonian play their home games at Leatherhead it doesn't really count. Their next away win came on Wednesday night when they beat Met Police. They look to be using some of their FA Cup money in strengthening the side and they have to believe that the play-offs are still a possibility. Getting some away wins would help and I think they are worth backing to win at Harrow. Harrow have lost 6 of their last 7 home games and have conceded 19 goals in those matches. Ironically their only win came against Met Police. Again Betstars are biggest at 21/10 but 2/1 is available at a few bookies including Betfred and Betway and that looks value for an away win. Kingstonian v Staines I wanted to oppose the home side on Boxing Day and I guess this game is probably in doubt here, but Staines look well worth backing. The home side have just one point in their last 6 games and look like a side who need to be careful they don't get sucked into the relegation battle. Staines will be hoping to keep onto their play-off sport and have lost just twice in their last 9 league games. One of those was when they had no strikers available for their game against Billericay which not surprisingly they lost. They have also lost just one away match in their last 8 and they look the best bet of the day. Marathon go 11/10. Wothing v Lowestoft This game is on a 3g pitch so will be on and I am going to stick with the home side. Based on the last 10 matches form guide Worthing are 7 which just shows how much of an improved side they are. Finally I got paid out for backing them on Boxing Day and hopefully will do again here. They have lost just 2 of their last 9 games and the Thurrock defeat a week ago is their only home lose in their last 6 and they really should have won that. Lowestoft are very hot and cold having won 4 and lost 6 in their last 10 league games. I think Worthing are playing better at the moment and am happy to back them again at the 8/5 with Betfred. Ebbsfleet 2pts @ 159/100 with Marathon Dulwich 1pt @ 17/4 with Betstars Leatherhead 1pt @ 21/10 with Betsars Staines 3pts @ 11/10 with Marathon Worthing 1pt @ 8/5 with Betfred
  2. 2 points
  3. 2 points
    Glentoby

    PL Tips - betfair prices vs BOG

    For the benefit of Birchy and anyone else trying to sort out the connundrum of BOG,BF,SP or any other betting method of following tips.Billy hits the nail on the head when he says find your own way.Not everyone who posts a tip can get on with a particular bookie at the price they want or to the stake they want. Therefore anyone following might find that the price advised might be shortened by one bookie,static with another etc,even Betfair is sensitive early to a flood of £5 and £10 bets,probably more so as the bookies use them as their "feelers" these days. The best thing to do imo is decide which tip you are going to back,spread your bet as widely as practicable.Decide before you back it how much you want to win rather than how much you want to stake and stake accordingly.Sounds simplistic but lets say the tip is put up at 5/2 and the best you can find is 9/4,are you not going to back it? Even if the best you can find is 2/1 does not mean you have missed the "value",so rather than not back it just up your stake to a level where you will win what you hoped for with the original price and if you can get BOG all the better.Over time it will work out for your P % L even without BOG if you base your betting around what you want to win rather than how much you want to risk on your stake.
  4. 2 points
    Pirate53

    Winter AW System

    3 No Bets today. All started favourite. The system follows the following logic: 26% of favs in AW H/caps win. Therefore 74% lose. We want to be in the 74%. Horses aged 2 and 3 only are considered - they should mostly be improvers. Handicaps and Nurseries only. Odds range 2/1 to 10/1. The jockey must be the same as the previous race contested. There are a few other filters, but I have to keep some secrets!! Expect losing runs of 12 or so. System to be used Nov-March. November 27 Bets, 7 wins, +£97.54 (£5 stakes)
  5. 1 point
    Non-league matches spread across a few days this weekend with some matches on 30th December, others on New Year's Day, and some teams even playing on both! So this is the first thread of two covering this bumper period of games. There is also a solitary game tonight for those early birds of you that fancy a quick post-Christmas blues punt? Let us know your tips for these games for this period anyway! @GazBlades, @eddiem, @BG Punter, @buga00, @Gidds, @doverwhite, @tictok, @allthethings, @Tanktop, @amtopm, @sammydubs, @the bastardian, @bromsgrovegreen, @Woodgate, @Carl Iles, @dawwe92, @Kenton Schweppes, @TastesLikeTuna, @atish29, @LondonHibs, @harry_rag, @MuineBheag, @Bronxie, @misky, @Cheltenhamwhite, @canaries91, @HastGill1, @Foinavon, @Neubs, @Duty281, @Jack A, @sap, @Darran, @Labrador, @matrixman, @shubert, @murther, @Johnmccain, @Simeon Borisof, and @Marc Kearney.
  6. 1 point
    I'm on this too Bubbles. Got 6.5 at Betfair Sportsbook. MVG doesn't look at his best right now - if he was then Price wouldn't have taken two sets. RVB beat MVG last time out as well. This is a pure value play for me - MVG could hit top gear and blow RVB away but at the price I'm happy to take a chance on RVB.
  7. 1 point
    6-3 to West Ham on corners so another winner. 10 winners from 16 selections, +7.5 points to advised stakes with an ROI of 41.67%. +5.4 points to level stakes with an ROI of 33.75%.
  8. 1 point
    Darran

    Non-League Predictions > Dec 27th - 30th

    I think if anything Fylde are the value against Maidnehead but not a game that appeals. I have been thinking about Hartlepool as Chester are desperate at the moment, but Hartlepool haven't been much better and it looks priced up about right to me.
  9. 1 point
    Glentoby

    SNIPPET FROM MOLERAT

    To quickly introduce you to Molerat,he rides work all over the UK and sometimes in Ireland and France,flat and jumps.Breaks yearlings and educates young and old equine and human.Gives little in the way of betting information either personaly or from contacts.Like myself,passionate that punters have as much info as possible and practicable on an honest and level playing field. Has passed on the following about a horse who will be 10 years old on Monday,having his 1st run over hurdles.Knows the horse has schooled very well and knows he has done so in years past as he himself has schooled him.Knows Brian Hughes well and if all goes to plan expects them to run these rivals into the grond from the front.The few doubts surround a couple of the opposition having younger legs and maybe more zip,however he thinks that providing no mistakes in the jumping he will grind them into submission.However Hughes will not revert to the stick unless still with a chance at the last,will not beat him up but will go hell for leather with hands and heels for the place at least. 11/2 general, Molerat cannot see him out of the places even throwing in a mistake or two and says ew looks safest given the potential of the younger legs but very hopeful of a winning debut. High Jinx 1405 Doncaster Good luck if you have a dabble.
  10. 1 point
    Yes ok mate, Thanks that's very kind of you. I'll post my bet before the deadline tomorrow. Thanks a lot!
  11. 1 point
    ralphie7

    Quick System

    Friday 29/12/2017 Leopardstown 01:20 GRACEMOUNT f/c 20/1 stake = 5 pts. EACH WAY
  12. 1 point
    Glentoby

    Any former Racing Post,Betfair or

    I think you have done an amazing job and I am so angry and dissapointed with myself that instead of just reading did not contribute.Believing foolishly that the voices of half a dozen really decent posters could make Racecaller rise above the idiots.i hope a few have followed,even including the idiots because they will be easy for you to spot and get rid of before any damage is done. In the hope though that they might actually realise they can look and learn and benefit.I love banter and I can take criticism with the best,and give it...............but it has to be quantified and justified to merit interaction and here seems to embrace that without getting heavy handed. Youself and Billy seem to have a good grip of what makes a successful Forum,you have my full backing and i can only hope a few more follow an pass the word on as I am doing.
  13. 1 point
    Leopardstown 2.30 Faugheen William Hill 1/5
  14. 1 point
    Sir Puntalot

    Any former Racing Post,Betfair or

    We appreciate the kind and blunt words, and PL has had its issues with the same in the past to be honest. Too many build up a following and think they are beyond the law of the site, but I quickly stamp that out and so does @BillyHills Betfair has always been full of immature one line merchants ever since it drew breath. It actually takes quite some time and setup to be able to manage a forum properly or it quickly becomes a circus. That doesn't mean to say it's boring and there's no banter, because there's plenty of that on here! We're working hard on bringing major updates to the racecards with integrated betting and a much easier mobile experience, so all those from racecaller are more than welcome with good and bad feedback. I see no reason why PL can't challenge big racing sites in a lot of what they do, and actually be better in some instances. We can't match video content, but they are TV channels so we're up against it, but we can match and beat them (over time) in every other department and that's the challenge. As I've said a few times, good progress from where we were January 2017 and very exciting times ahead for 2018 onwards, but we absolutely need everyone's input and feedback.
  15. 1 point
    BillyHills

    Latest Tables - December

    Dec 28 Bosou nails a biggy to take the lead with 3 days left 29 players in profit, 24 guaranteed a Cup spot up to now
  16. 1 point
    I agree, this is going to be a fucking bloodbath tonight.
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