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  2. Final post on spreads, a round up of the other prices I've seen. Winning distances: 1310-1355 (aggregate of all winning margins) N Hemisphere/S Hemisphere: 120-140 Biggest winning margin: 91-96 Highest scoring game: 105-110 Lowest scoring game: 17-19.5 Fastest try (seconds): 75-78 Fastest drop goal (mins): 24-27 Fastest hat trick (mins): 33-36 Highest tries in a match: 15.5-16.5 Highest kicked pens in a match: 8.75-9.75 Highest shirts in a match: 212-220 Highest bookings points in a match: 48-53
  3. Part 2! Unused subs: 49-53 (57 in 2015) Thoughts: I got a bit excited about this as a potential buy as I was piecing together what stats I could find until I realised that 2015 was the first time 8 subs were allowed. As it was a new development then I suspect teams will be more used to making use of 8 replacements so it's no bet for me. Bookings points: 625-630, ave = 371.25 (555 - 230 - 400 - 300) Yellow cards: 54-55, ave = 34 (53 - 18 - 35 - 30) Red cards: 3.5-4, ave = 1.25 (1 - 2 - 2 - 0) Thoughts: Total bookings points looks like a potential sell in the absence of anything that suggests an upsurge in cards this year. Red cards may be over-stated. I'll be mulling this one over before getting involved. Total drawn games: 0.75-0.9, ave = 0.75 (0 - 1 - 1 - 1) Thoughts: I've taken 6/5 for any drawn game with Lads. Not sure it should be odds against. Total games won to nil: 2.96-2.9, ave = 2 (1 - 2 - 4 - 1) I'm not quite comparing like with like here as Spreadex's market is actually based on 25 points per team scoring 0 so you could get 50 points in the event of a game ending 0-0 (not including abandoned games) but let's ignore that possibility. The Tote go 1/2 for any game to be won to nil and I think that's a good price but I can't quite bring myself to put the hefty bet on that would be required to make it worthwhile at the price. Tryless matches: 0.75-0.95, ave 2 (1 - 3 - 3 - 1) Thoughts: Not much downside but hardly an exciting prospect as a buy. Might keep any eye out for a fixed odds price that appeals. One last post to come in terms of spreads, just a list of the remaining markets I've seen but without stats or comments.
  4. Ok, gird you loins, here comes my 3 part review of the current spread markets! Not sure it'll be of interest to many on here but I've done the work so might as well post it. Best price spread followed by average and stats from past 4 World Cups (most recent first) and brief thoughts on potential or actual bets. Total Points : 2550-2575, Ave = 2499.25 (2439 - 2245 - 2478 - 2835) Thoughts - share the consensus that this is a sell if anything but prefer to bet in other markets. Total Tries: 305-315, Ave = 290.25 (271 - 262 - 296 - 332) Thoughts - similar to points, again you're going back to 2003 to find the spread covered. Total Penalty Tries: 9-10, Ave = 5 (6 - 4) Thoughts - only got stats for 15 and 11, looks a bit high to me barring relevant rule changes but too low a price to be selling at. Total Tryscorer shirts: 3500-3550 Thoughts - no stats and no feel for this one, posted in case of interest. Total successful penalties: 182-192, Ave = 194.75 (224 - 171 - 178 - 206) Thoughts: No strong view on this one. Total successful conversions: 226-236, Ave = 207.5 (194 - 171 - 211 - 244) Thoughts: Already sold this at 230. If the spreads were right about the number of tries then you'd still need the success rate to be slightly higher than it's been over the last 4 tournaments (ave = 71.5%). Total drop goals: 7.5-7.25, Ave = 16.25 (8 - 20 - 14 - 23) Thoughts: already bought at 6.75. Even allowing for the downward trend I don't think there's much downside to a buy at that price. Currently a slight arb on this market. Total missed kicks: 122-132, Ave = 223.25 (152 - 235 - 222 - 284) Thoughts: already bought at 130. This looks way too low to me, even if some of those stats look iffy (apparently the success rate for drop goals is really low and it would appear teams were pinging them in from all over the shop prior to 2015). If you exclude drop goals you still get an average of 166.5. Total 50-ups: 440-460, Ave = 458.75 (328 - 386 - 474 - 647) Thoughts: Potential sell if you think the points lines are too high anyway. Treat the stats with caution as I've just compiled them from ESPN while furiously stabbing at a calculator! Total Ton-ups: 11, Ave = 21.75 (0 - 0 - 21 - 66) Thoughts: This was 17 to buy or sell when I first posted the early numbers so obviously seen sellers. There are better ways to bet on low points totals but a low risk buy if you do still fancy a blow out or two. There have been just the 3 games seeing >100 points, 1 in 07 and 2 in 03.
  5. RECORD: Bets won = 12 Bets lost = 15 Profit = -0.57$ (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play) Today's pick of the day (odds from Pinnacle): Reds (at ) at Cubs (+250 or 2.50) This play meets the criteria of 3 betting systems at a time, including the most lucrative in 2019 called "The Hot Bats": "Suppose a team wins 2 straight games, while scoring 6+ runs in each meeting. Fade them if they are playing at home." PERFORMANCE: Over 7 years: +47.56 units from 1140 bets (ROI = 4.2%) In 2019: +33.64 units from 147 bets (ROI = 22.9%) Since Chicago's last two games were both wins by scoring 16 and 14 runs respectively, we are fading them today. Best of luck! Professor MJ
  6. Bet 4 Asane vs Odd II Over 1.5 goals £12.61 @ 1.07
  7. New Pick non runner 3.30 Thirsk. Thirsk 5:00 Red Seeker - 25/1 betfair - pp e/w thanks Red Seeker - from Tim Easterby yard the 4yo has won three times at 7f on ground varying from good to firm to soft, He was going for four wins in a row 16 days ago at Beverley 7.5f good was well beat 7.25 lengths in 8th place but the step up in class and 6lbs rise didn't help , The yard had time to work on his stamina after that increase and goes off same mark and same jockey Danny Redmond and same 5lb allowance also drops to class 5 where he got two of those wins other class 6
  8. Another frustrating day on Saturday when a late Eastleigh goal stopped a profit being made with York ending up being the only winner. Obviously annoying that the Nap's Alfreton were 2 down after 3 minutes. There isn't much action this mid-week, but a couple of bets catch my eye in the two BetVictor Southern Leagues. Nuneaton v Stourbridge The home side were one of the favourites for the league, but they look a long way off being champions at the moment. They had seemed to spend a bit of cash on the squad over the summer despite the fact they nearly went bust last season, but I did wonder if they might still struggle given how bad they were last year. They have won just 2 of their opening 7 games with wins over Needham Market and Lowestoft (who are below them in the league) and arguably this is their toughest test yet this season. Stourbridge have been knocking on the door of promotion for a few seasons now and finished 2nd to Kettering last year. Their long-term manager left after the play-off loss to Alvechurch, but the new manager has some in and started very strongly winning 5 of their first 7 league games. They have had a reasonably kind fixture list to be fair and the one time they did face a top half side they lost 3-0 to Hednesford, but then obviously Nuneaton are far from being a top half side at the moment. They have score 17 goals already and Nuneaton have only kept one clean-sheet so far this season. Marathon's 31/25 makes plenty of appeal. Dorchester v Taunton Taunton look a good bet to beat Dorchester here. Like Stourbridge they finished 2nd in the league last season although they got off to a very slow start losing their first 2 games 3-0 and 4-0. Since then they are unbeaten though winning 3 and then drawing their last two. They should be more than capable of getting back to winning ways against a struggling Dorchester side. Granted they did win 3-1 on Saturday, but Hendon have only won one game all season and Dorchester's other win came against Beaconsfield on the opening day of the season and they have lost every single game so far. Taunton are much the better side and hopefully they will prove it on the pitch and they look a big price at 131/100 with Marathon. Stourbridge 2pts @ 31/25 with Marathon Taunton 3pts @ 131/100 with Marathon
  9. Today
  10. 16.55 Kempton Grace Plunkett 28/1 ew b365 All the best.
  11. Backing each way is a cover bet. Backing 8/9 runners gives 1/4 normally. Plus handicap now improved to 4 places or more.
  12. EPONINA---4.30---THIRSK 14/1---SKYBET---EACH WAY
  13. 3.20 Worcester AUNTIE NEILA 0.5pts EW 150/1 Bet365 BOG
  14. 3:20 Worcester, Make Haste Slowly @18/1 bet365
  15. Marina Bay Only 11 races have taken place at the Marina Bay Circuit 8 out of the 11 winners have started on pole The Safety Car has appeared in every single race Mercedes have won for the past three seasons Only 1 retirement last year, (crash at the first bend), the lowest ever The average number of retirements per race is 5 Stats
  16. Well done PercyP. Abraham saved u this time !👏👏🍻
  17. 15:50 Worcester, Jimmy Rabbitte, 4/1 Bet365.
  18. I like Jannik's odds much more than Kukushkin's so as for me, betting on Kukushin is not reasonable. I would skip it. IMHO.
  19. I think Jannik Sinner is a reincarnation of Ted Gärdestad who reached the Swedish junior tennis championship in 1970 facing Bjorn Borg and lost in a tight 3 set battle. Ted was a promising tennis player but chosed to chase his dream of becoming a musical artist which he became very quickly and competed in Eurovision 1979 with the song Sattelit. He died by suicide in 1997 by jumping infront of a train 41 years old. Jannik looks very similar to Ted when he was 18 so I think we have a potential genious in Jannik.
  20. Kempton 6:00 Broughtons Compass 28/1 ew Skybet, Betfair, PaddyPower, Coral.
  21. @MCLARKE Interesting that you do it with no form study at all. Still might be worthwhile taking account of market movements on Oddschecker particularly the night before racing, in the morning and in the run up to the race itself. I know it is difficult to predict which may the betting market might turn but I rather feel that if my selection is being shunned by the market, especially, the ones at shorter odds e.g. 3/1 - 5/1 then someone in the know has the knowledge that the horse will run very poorly despite all the hype in the racing press.
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