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  1. #1
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    Default Re: Sunderland v Newcastle United > Oct 21

    god i feel sunderland really need to wake up. so far in the league they haven't switched to higher gear. its very hard to judge a team that doesn't really try win. they seem so conservative that most they get out of games are draws. i remeber them being much better team last season. newcastle have an attacking flair and free spirited attitude when they play. if sunderland doesn't show initiative again i can see newcastle winning

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    Default Re: Sunderland v Newcastle United > Oct 21

    After watching these games many times now the safe bet is always the draw. The last few games at Sunderland have finished a draw or a Newcastle win (mostly the draw recently) and only one win for Sunderland in recent history.

    Both teams to score should be nailed on as both teams have goals in them with strong attacking players. Newcastle have not won away this season and Sunderland have not lost at home. Sunderland have also only lost two home games since O'Neill took charge( 1-2 v Arsenal & 0-1 v Man U). Based on these facts I would strongly fancy the draw. One positive I would take from Sunderland is that despite playing poorly, have only lost 1 game this season v Man City, usually tells a story.

    Probable line ups:

    Sunderland: Mignolet, Rose, O Shea, Cuellar, Gardner, Colback, Larsson, McClean, Johnson, Sessegnon, Fletcher

    Newcastle: Harper, Perch, Taylor, Coloccini, Santon, Cabaye, Tiote, Ben Arfa, Jonas, Cisse, Ba

    Recommend:

    Both teams to score
    Draw

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    Default Re: Sunderland v Newcastle United > Oct 21

    5/10pts Both teams to score - 5/6 with Coral

    I think 8/11 is a fair price for this so i'm more than willing to get involved here. Both sides have been conceding goals all season and in this derby there are always chances created so even if they hadn't I wouldn't necessarily be put off by this price. Sunderland have real threats now with the likes of Johnson, McClean and Fletcher and we all know about Newcastle's attacking threats. Newcastle have plenty of doubts over a number of defenders so may not necessarily line-up full strength but having to chop and change at the back all the time hardly helps so if they do all return, it isn't certain to solve their problems. There'll be as many chances created a there will be tough tackles flying in so i'll have a solid bet on both sides finding the net and conceding, just as they have been doing all season.

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    Default Re: Sunderland v Newcastle United > Oct 21

    My instinct says value on Sunderland after factoring everything I thought I knew. The bookies are probably more correct than me but because I'm feeling arrogant I'm sticking a half sized bet at 13/8 on them.

    Newcastle's Europa adventures alone told me pre season they will struggle to the dizzy heights they reached last season and shouldn't be priced in a feisty encounter like this. Poor reasoning I know!

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    Default Re: Sunderland v Newcastle United > Oct 21

    Just first thoughts on this but as usual with this fixture you have to consider cards, not much point in trying to call a result as form goes completely out the window. Sunderland have had 4 reds in the last 4 Tyne-Wear derbies and there have been 25 yellows too in these games. Haven't looked at odds yet, although Tiote to get a card I'll most likely take but only if it's 1.70+. A pity Cattermole isn't playing although the 3.15 (Betfair) or so for red to be flashed is worth considering, despite his absence .

    Martin Atkinson will officiate. He's shown an avg of 4.20 yellows per game this season in his 5 Premier League matches so far (no reds).
    Last edited by Mr.Europe; 21-10-2012 at 00:49.

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    Default Re: Sunderland v Newcastle United > Oct 21

    3pts Draw 23/10 Skybet

    Neither side come into this match in particularly good form and with the tightness you always get with the fierce passion demonstrated in this particularly derby game I’m leaning towards the draw here. The draw won’t really suit anyone but at the end of the day neither will give up the bragging rights to the other until they next meet. With Sunderland having drawn 9 of their last 14 league games and Newcastle having drawn 4 of their last 7 aways the draw looks to have every chance here.

    Full preview here:
    http://www.punterslounge.com/sunderl...-a-tight-match

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    Default Re: Sunderland v Newcastle United > Oct 21

    Steven Fletcher To Score First & 1-1 Draw @ 31.00 Sportsbet

    Small stakes long shot for me. To me the match has draw written all over it, a feisty derby where neither side will want to lose, so I'd expect a very tight and hard fought contest. Neither side are in fantastic form so I can't imagine a glut of goals will be scored, but the likes of Ba and Fletcher have both been finding the net consistently so I'd say they are the most likely to score.

    No concrete reasoning here - I just fancy a low scoring draw, and think Fletcher has every chance of scoring first. Spices things up just that little bit more for when I watch the game.

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    Default Re: Sunderland v Newcastle United > Oct 21

    Sunderland 0 AH @ 2.07 (Pinnacle) 2.5/10

    I agree this is a game where the form book goes out of the window and no result would surprise. Odds against for Sunderland to win with draw cover looks slight value to me. Home advantage is crucial and whilst Newcastle are a better side than they are I wouldn't say they were so much better to justify being favourites away from home. This bet opened up around 1.93 and there has been a drift to odds against based on people backing Newcastle. I can't really see why- those initial odds seem correctly priced to me. Last season Newcastle did finish 20 points above Sunderland and won this fixture, but even so they picked up less points away from home than Sunderland did at home (27 vs 28). At any rate, I highly doubt Newcastle will hit the heights of last season, despite a talented squad. They haven't looked as impressive to me this season, playing two up front leaves them open at times, as seen in the 0-3 defeat at home to United in their last game. Sunderland have been dull and unimpressive largely as well, but difficult to beat and I rate O'Neill as a manager; I still think he will take Sunderland in the right direction, it's just a matter of time. Meanwhile, Newcastle's extending Pardew's contract for another 50 years seems a bit of a gamble based on one good season One last thing, although it may seem trivial, they have moved the away fans from directly behind the goal to the other end of the pitch, high up in the gods. As an away fan it is frustrating to be so far from the action, and also far from the hardcore home support who sit the other end. Having been to Sunderland numerous times as a Spurs fan I liked where the away fans traditionally were and I think it will make a difference to the amount of vocal support the Newcastle players actually hear.

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    Mr.Europe (21-10-2012)

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    Over 2.5 goals @ 2.22 - Betfair.

    I think there's a degree of value to be had here backing the overs. Sunderland as we know should be a pretty organised outfit under MON but they still look like conceding here and there, as shown at home to Wigan, and throughout this season. They also possess huge goal threats now that they haven't perhaps had in previous years. I don't agree with Steven Taylor's assertion that no Sunderland player would get in the Newcastle first IX. Although I presume that was a bit of banter! The combination of Steven Fletcher and Adam Johnson has been working wonders, and the former is on fire right now. With him in the side you're always confident in at least a goal. This Newcastle defence have been shown up time and time again this season, yet their front line is as formidable a front line as one can expect in the Premier League. It should be a naturally fiery derby, and I would expect to see goals today.

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    Default Re: Sunderland v Newcastle United > Oct 21

    BTTS 1.85 @ Betfair- I think both sides have enough quality in attack to score against the respective defences. Sunderland have some good attacking options with Larsson, Johnson, Sessegnon and Fletcher and being the home side with the crowd behind them as well i certainly think they will score particularly because Newcastle are without Steven Taylor. On the other hand i think Newcastle will score as they have a fairly strong attack although Cisse isn't playing but they should have enough to score with the likes of Ba, Ben Arfa, Cabaye and Gutierrez.

    Draw 3.2 @ Betfair - I think the value in this game lies on the draw. 4 out of the last 8 games between these two teams have ended in a draw and they've all ended 1-1. If this match was being played at St James Park then i think Newcastle would edge it but because it's being played at SOL i think Sunderland will get something from this game. Neither side has started that well and in all honesty i think both sides would not be too dissatisfied with a point. Both sides lost their last games 3-0 to the Manchester sides and will want to bounce back today but i think they will cancel each other out. Both sides are better attacking than at the back in my opinion so i expect we may see an open game but i just can't split these two sides today and the draw at 11/5looks like good value.

    Correct Score: Sunderland 1-1 Newcastle 6.7 @ Betfair -
    Carrying on from my last bet: I can't see this game ending 0-0 as both sides have good attacking options and weaker defences. However, i think we will see an open game in the first half and if the scores are level at around the 60-75 minute mark then i think we could see a much tighter game where neither side will want to lose and as such i don't think this game will end up 2-2 either so for me 1-1 looks like a likely scoreline in this game so will have a small punt on the 1-1 scoreline @ 6.7 on Betfair.
    Last edited by hoddspur; 21-10-2012 at 13:32.

  13. #12
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    £200 Free Bet
    Quote Originally Posted by Jase82 View Post
    Over 2.5 goals @ 2.22 - Betfair.

    I think there's a degree of value to be had here backing the overs. Sunderland as we know should be a pretty organised outfit under MON but they still look like conceding here and there, as shown at home to Wigan, and throughout this season. They also possess huge goal threats now that they haven't perhaps had in previous years. I don't agree with Steven Taylor's assertion that no Sunderland player would get in the Newcastle first IX. Although I presume that was a bit of banter! The combination of Steven Fletcher and Adam Johnson has been working wonders, and the former is on fire right now. With him in the side you're always confident in at least a goal. This Newcastle defence have been shown up time and time again this season, yet their front line is as formidable a front line as one can expect in the Premier League. It should be a naturally fiery derby, and I would expect to see goals today.
    The sending off probably killed the overs.... Well done everyone on the draw and 1-1 score line!

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