Your No.1 Betting & Poker Community 

Results 1 to 30 of 30
  1. #1
    Join Date
    07 Nov 2001
    Location
    Leicester
    Age
    54
    Posts
    35,399
    Thanks
    1,103
    Thanked 2,867 Times in 1,733 Posts
    Awards: 35

    Default Flat Racing ~ Friday August 24th

    3.40 York: Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes (Group 1) (5f)
    It’s a cracking renewal of the Nunthorpe and purely on ratings it should rest between Bated Breath, Sole Power and Ortensia. I don’t think York will suit the ex-Aussie mare and expect the other pair to fight out the finish as they did at Haydock back in May as long as the ground stays on the decent side. Of those at bigger prices we have Spirit Quartz who has done nothing wrong since joining Robert Cowell and would be my idea of a value bet and Paddy Power are going 4 places in this race which should be noted for those seeking a bit of a price.


    Selections:


    3pts Bated Breath 4/1 Bet365

    1pt EW Spirit Quartz 25/1 Paddy Power (first 4)

    Full Preview;
    http://www.punterslounge.com/york-be...thorpe-at-york

  2. #2
    Join Date
    01 Oct 2009
    Location
    Glasgow
    Age
    45
    Posts
    5,267
    Thanks
    358
    Thanked 316 Times in 301 Posts
    Awards: 2

    Default Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 24th

    As BH has already said in the above post it could all revolve around the Going.

    Studied this race all week watching countless amounts of replays but one thing i forgot was the weather, it was coming down pretty hard today at York and must have some affect on the going, backed two in this race and am not so confident now as i was on Ortensia, she's a class act but she prefers good ground and i had her down as a real contender, time will tell.

    I also really liked Pearl secret but changed my bet, its something we should never do so that could come back and haunt me, with BH on one of his choices that being Spirit Quartz, that being said Frankie rides and he's a jockey that haunts me, i think i backed all his 7 runners the day BEFORE he racked up the famous 7 at Ascot lol, Spirit Quartz does have a great attitude but has yet to get his head in front when it matters but at 25/1 thought he was worth a bet.

    VERY tough race and if i had known about the FC rain might have gone with two others but we pays our money and we takes our chances.


    York 3:40

    Ortensia &
    Spirit Quartz

    Roll the dice.
    Benny Harvey R.I.P

  3. #3
    Join Date
    26 Jul 2010
    Location
    Mayo, Ireland
    Age
    27
    Posts
    22,527
    Thanks
    1,139
    Thanked 2,067 Times in 1,507 Posts
    Awards: 22

    Default Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 24th

    ​Posted this antepost.

    *The Nunthorpe Stakes - York 24th of August*



    *Nocturnal Affair - 4 Points WIN @ 25/1 Betfred*
    *Hamish McGonagall - 2 Points WIN @ 20/1 Betfred*
    *Sole Power - 2 Points WIN @ 7/1 Bet365*



    I think it is important when antepost betting to try and get the horses that you know are being targeted for the specific race. I do know that all 3 of my selections here are being targeted at the race, so that is half the battle for me. Nocturnal Affair is my main bet as i feel he is way overpriced at 25/1. The David Marnane trained 6 year old had some great runs over in Meydan at the Dubai Carnival during the winter where he won a valuable handicap and in the Al Quoz sprint on the final night, he was 6th behind Ortensia, but was only 2 lengths behind that horse on the night, and was only about half a length behind Sole Power who was 2nd that night, so there is not much between them at all on the form line, and Ortensia and Sole Power are two of the market leaders for this race. He then had a 5 month break and Marnane ran him in a Listed event at Tipperary where it was a very nice 2nd to Inxile, and was not given an awfully hard time as it was a prep run, and that was highly encouraging. The trainer is quietly confident that he can snatch the Nunthorpe and i feel 25/1 will look a big price come the day.

    I have also put a bet on Hamish McGonagall, as his record at York is exceptional, and he was 2nd in the Nunthorpe last year. From 13 runs at York, Hamish has had 4 wins and 4 places, this is where the horse thrives. Last year, he was 2nd to Margot Did in the same race @ 28/1, and there is no reason why he can't go close once more. Tim Easterby is confident of a big run on the back of the horse's victory in a Listed event at York last time out where he led pillar to post. If he get's an easy lead in the Nunthorpe, he could be hard to peg back, and 20/1 is a nice price.

    I have also had a couple of points on Sole Power who has to have a big chance in this race. This horse will always be remembered for it's 100/1 win in the Knavesmire two years ago and if the ground comes up dry for the Nunthorpe, this is the horse they all have to beat. If the ground is not good or better, i can't see the horse running, so it is a bit of a risk. Sole Power has been placed on it's last 4 starts, he was 2nd in both it's runs in Meydan, only lost by a neck to Bated Breath at Haydock in the Temple Stakes, and last time out was a very good 3rd to Little Bridge in the King's Stand Stakes at Ascot. On form, he has to be bang there come the finish.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    07 Nov 2001
    Location
    Leicester
    Age
    54
    Posts
    35,399
    Thanks
    1,103
    Thanked 2,867 Times in 1,733 Posts
    Awards: 35

    Default Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 24th

    2.00 York: Sky Bet Mobile Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) (1m4f)
    The 3yo’s seem to be the ones to look at here in this competitive opener, I’m not sure the draw will help Silver Lime so will go with Willie Wag Tail who has a good position on the inside and hope that Spencer can do something similar as he did with Trade Storm for us on Thursday. Of the older horses I’ll give one last chance to Tropical Beat, he so often is the unlucky horse of the race and hopefully William Buick can find a clear path today and he can improve over this 12f trip.


    Selections:


    1pt Willie Wag Tail 8/1 BetVictor

    1pt EW Tropical Beat 20/1 Stan James

    Full Preview;
    http://www.punterslounge.com/york-be...-three-at-york

  5. #5
    Join Date
    26 Jan 2011
    Location
    Yorkshire
    Posts
    6,785
    Thanks
    337
    Thanked 232 Times in 200 Posts
    Awards: 5

    Default Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 24th

    2.00 York - 2pts win Tepmokea @ 25/1 (Hills)

    Elaine Burke's runner is not one of the flashy types in here or an unexposed 3yo but has plenty of ability and conditions should be spot on for him here.

    His last two wins came over today's c&d and the latter of those (May 2011) came off today's mark of 90. He gets 3lbs taken off his back by Michael Metcalfe so he's definitely weighted to have a chance and he hasn't run badly this season apart from when stone last in the Silver Cup here last time out.

    I backed him on his seasonal return here on his first run for this yard but realised afterwards that Karl Burke had stated that he would need the run and his prime target was the Ebor. However, he still ran a highly encouraging race to go down by 2 1/2l having travelled nicely and only fading at the death. That was off a mark of 93 and given he wasn't fully tuned up, he was a big eyecatcher for me.

    He was sent off favourite over 1m5f at Ayr in an attempt to get his mark up for the Ebor and to prove he stayed the trip. The described good ground in the formbook isn't accurate as it was softer than that and his stamina just didn't last out the extra furlong on soft ground. He is a horse who handles soft and stays 1m4f but stamina wouldn't be his strong suit in my opinion so it wasn't a huge surprise that he couldn't finish his race off as well as connections would have liked.

    He went for the Old Newton Cup at Haydock over a furlong shorter on soft next time and bounced back to run another great race, just run down inside the final furlong having led for the vast majority of the contest.

    His subsequent run here over 1m6f last time was a disaster as he just ran really flat but it's no great surprise given it came just a week after that tough race at Haydock and was probably just a desperate attempt to get his rating up sufficiently to make the Ebor field.

    Connections presumably realised it wasn't going to happen and reassessed for this race which I believe he's been laid out for. Any rain that comes is of no inconvenience, although I wouldn't like it to be totally bottomless, and he goes particularly well here as mentioned. The break should have freshened him up as he's had about 5 weeks off and is capable of running well fresh too. I like horses who are up with the pace at York which this one should be and stall 7 isn't a bad draw.

    Should put in a good stint from near the front and for that reason I think he'll be bang there with a furlong or two to race and I just hope he can keep it up late on.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    27 Mar 2007
    Location
    Horsham (West Sussex)
    Posts
    3,913
    Thanks
    8
    Thanked 18 Times in 17 Posts
    Awards: 6

    Default Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 24th

    BERBERANA 7.45 Folkestone.

    1 point win.

    Handicap mark dropping to an all-time low and his last run wasn't that bad to be fair. Can improve a bit on that, and if she can show more of what she's capable of, then she can make the odds on favourite work very hard this evening. Trip and ground fine.

    7/1 Bet365 BOG

  7. #7
    Join Date
    11 Nov 2005
    Location
    birmingham
    Posts
    2,589
    Thanks
    39
    Thanked 103 Times in 93 Posts
    Awards: 1

    Default Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 24th

    2.00 york

    silver lime 88
    willie wag tail 85
    kirthill 83

    silver lime looks the one to be on here ......horse is progressing nicely and wont mind a little cut in the ground .ladbrokes 7/1 is very generous as i think this horse should be fav ......

    silver lime 2pts e.w 7/1 ladbrokes

  8. #8
    Join Date
    10 Feb 2011
    Age
    48
    Posts
    593
    Thanks
    209
    Thanked 167 Times in 96 Posts

    Default Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 24th

    3.40 Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes (Group 1)



    Since the start of the 1980s only four Nunthorpe winners (and only three individual horses) were aged six or above, suggesting that we should view their chances with a degree of scepticism. Three of those four wins have come in the last eight renewals, but two came courtesy of the late maturing Borderlescott.


    In general, the older generation tend to struggle against their younger rivals and we should probably ignore them for win purposes. This trend splits the field in half with no fewer than ten runners failing this statistic, including the highly rated Australian mare Ortensia

    It is disappointing that both two-year-old entrants have been balloted out of this year’s renewal as the juveniles, who receive a huge weight allowance, are always worthy of respect.

    Royal Ascot’s King’s Stand Stakes remains the best pointer having supplied four of the last ten winners. With the race upgraded to a Group 1 in 2008, there is an even stronger likelihood that this will continue to be the case.

    Run over 5f, it is a very similar race to the Nunthorpe as opposed to Newmarket’s July Cup which is run over an extra furlong. Even so, three winners have come from the Newmarket showpiece and interestingly two of them achieved the sprint double. Seven of today’s field contested the Royal meeting’s speed showcase, with Bated Breath (2nd), Sole Power (3rd) and Spirit Quartz (5th) faring the best.

    When it comes to official ratings it would seem sensible to discount all those horses rated less than 110 as only Borderlescott (2008 and 2009) and 2010’s 100/1 screamer Sole Power have managed to win this race when rated below that benchmark. This trend alone helps to narrow the field down significantly, with nine runners falling foul of it.

    The sprinting division is generally extremely open so it is no real surprise that only half of the last ten winners finished in the top three on their most recent outing. However, none of the last ten finished any worse than sixth last time out and all bar two of them had finished first or second in one of their last two starts, confirming the fact that it is very hard for an out of form runner to bounce back to his or her best in this top-class company. We can easily discount the half-dozen contenders who finished out of the top six on their most recent start.


    Solid previous efforts at a high level are also a positive; of the last ten winners only La Cucaracha, Kingsgate Native and Sole Power scored here having failed to finish at least placed in a previous Group 1 or 2 event.

    No strong trends here with no trainer other than Aidan O’Brien, who is not represented today, having trained more than one horse to win the Nunthorpe in recent years.


    The last two renewals became a bookies benefit with Sole Power (100/1) and Margot Did (20/1) doing the business; therefore joining just three other horses that have won the Nunthorpe since the war when returned at 16/1 or bigger.


    However, in the context of what has happened in the past it would still seem prudent to favour those towards the forefront of the betting. In the last decade alone, six winners had been no worse that fourth in the betting although as a word of caution, it is nine years now since the last winning favourite.


    Fillies have won five of the last nineteen renewals which, on first glance, doesn’t look anything out of the ordinary. But, when you consider that very few fillies line up in the Nunthorpe, it starts to look a lot more interesting.


    Margot Did scored for the girls last year and there are four in this year’s field who are aiming to enhance their impressive record.


    CONCLUSION


    A typically wide open renewal of this historical contest; twenty go to post but from a trends perspective there does appear to be a fair amount of dead wood. BATED BREATH has been kept fresh since his fine second in the King’s Stand at Royal Ascot and with that race being such a good pointer, it’s difficult to see him out of the frame. Just behind the selection that day at Ascot was Sole Power and the consistent 2010 winner looks sure to make a bold bid to regain his crown.


    Fillies have a superb record and Ortensia comes out very strongly on the positive trends, but the fact she is a seven-year-old tempers enthusiasm a touch. Spirit Quartz and the promising young Angels Will Fall appear the pick of the outsiders.




    POSITIVES


    Fillies – Beyond Desire, Invincible Ash, Ortensia, Angels Will Fall

    Finished in the top two either of last two starts – 12 runners

    Ran well in King’s Stand Stakes – Bated Breath (2nd), Secret Witness (3rd), Spirit Quartz (5th)

    Previous good form in Group 1 or 2 company – 10 runners


    NEGATIVES

    Aged six or older – 10 runners including Hamish McGonagall and Ortensia

    Rated less than 110 – 9 runners including Pearl Secret and Angels Will Fall~

    Failed to finish in the first six last time out – Dandy Boy, Hamish McGonagall, Kingsgate Native, Secret Witness, Tangerine Trees, Beyond Desire

  9. #9
    Join Date
    27 Dec 2010
    Location
    Middlesbrough
    Posts
    4,279
    Thanks
    356
    Thanked 209 Times in 177 Posts
    Awards: 5

    Default Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 24th

    I am off to Newcastle tomorrow so any fancies would be most welcome!

  10. #10
    Join Date
    31 Dec 2008
    Location
    Near Great Leighs
    Posts
    3,969
    Thanks
    139
    Thanked 144 Times in 131 Posts
    Awards: 4

    Default Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 24th

    3:40 York: Nocturnal Affair 1pt win 28/1 Sportingbet

    There is not a great deal between some of the top handicappers and the Group sprinters, often it can be down to how the race unfolds and the sort of run you get. Nocturnal Affair is rated only a couple of pounds below Sole Power and Ortensia on official figures and the booking of Richard Hughes catches the eye. Nocturnal Affair ran pretty well in Meydan and after a nice break was freshened up a couple of weeks ago and lines up here ready to go. David Marnane does well with his raids and Nocturnal Affair looks overpriced.

  11. #11
    Join Date
    20 Mar 2012
    Location
    Hampshire
    Posts
    1,515
    Thanks
    586
    Thanked 167 Times in 135 Posts
    Awards: 6

    Default Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 24th

    To echo what most of you have already said, I too fancy Bated Breath (if the ground is good enough) and Spirit Quartz as an EW alternative to the market leaders.

    In the 2.00 I have put up Rios Rosanna but I would prefer Silver Lime if it wasnt for the draw. I think this horse could be very well handicapped and if that doesnt inconvenience him then I think he could hose up.

    The other fancy of mine is Stipulate in the 3.05. There were a couple of others that came close in my ratings (Side Glance & potentially Barefoot Lady) but this one has the more progressive profile and as long as the ground stays good enough I think he has a great chance having not been beaten far the last twice, despite being hampered.

  12. #12
    Join Date
    27 Dec 2010
    Location
    Middlesbrough
    Posts
    4,279
    Thanks
    356
    Thanked 209 Times in 177 Posts
    Awards: 5

    Default Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 24th

    I am hoping Jamie Spencer has a good day tomorrow.

    Willie Wag Tail looks good in the first even though he is the favourite. He had no luck in running whatsoever at Goodwood and would have surely gone close with a clear run. He is much better drawn tomorrow in 4 and won't mind any softening of the ground. Ed Walker is in brilliant form again at the moment operating at a 40% strike rate with only 1 from his last 9 runners finishing unplaced. He is in the race as the bottom weight but I fancy him to be well ahead of his current mark and he could take some stopping from a good draw.

    Pearl Secret is a horse I have followed due to his association with David Barron. He is clearly very talented and won't mind any easing in the ground either. This is the true test for him and one I hope he is capable of passing. He is drawn high which looks a good place to be as the more fancied runners are drawn next to him. There will also be plenty of pace on with those drawn high.

    The last one I like is Burning Blaze in the last tomorrow. The form of his win last time out has been franked several times and he will surely go well in this. He is already a CD winner and his trainer has already had some success at York this week.

  13. #13
    Join Date
    15 Jun 2005
    Location
    Bradford, England
    Posts
    13,171
    Thanks
    120
    Thanked 431 Times in 225 Posts
    Awards: 3

    Default Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 24th

    Planetex 6.05pm Hamilton - 6/4 Bet365 BOG
    One I've been following a while. Backed it at Donny when it ran behind the impressive Sir Maximilian (that is one to follow) and then again at Ripon when winning at 16-1. Ran last week and I left it alone due to the early price of 15-8, won at 10-3. Has been entered for about half a dozen races and pulled out as it needs soft ground and ground is soft at Hamilton. Won a class 5 sprint by 4 1/2 lengths last time out, that is some effort to win by that distance over 5f and it has been put up 10lb by the handicapper but drops to a class 6 race and is under a penalty so it's 4lb well in at the weights. Looks far more progressive than others in the race and Bet365 go 6-4 while RP tissue price is Evens. I can see this going off short by race time and have got on at 6-4 with BOG.

  14. #14
    Join Date
    15 Jun 2005
    Location
    Bradford, England
    Posts
    13,171
    Thanks
    120
    Thanked 431 Times in 225 Posts
    Awards: 3

    Default Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 24th

    York 3.05pm - Strensall Stakes
    Godolphin look to have a good chance to add to their fine record in this race. Dubai Prince is top rated and is a course and distance winner. Trip suits, ground should be fine and I'm expecting a big run. Plenty here with no chance of winning and Stipulate could be a bit too short. Full race preview here:

    http://www.punterslounge.com/york-be...h-dubai-prince


    Selections:

    3pts WIN – Dubai Prince 5-1 Bet365 (BOG)

  15. #15
    Join Date
    13 Nov 2011
    Posts
    981
    Thanks
    21
    Thanked 40 Times in 36 Posts
    Awards: 2

    Default Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 24th

    2.00 York

    WILLIE WAG TAIL 4pts win @ 7/1 bog
    (William Hill)

    I really like the chances of this big 3yo colt by Theatrical trained by Ed Walker. Willie Wag Tail won his maiden at the second time of asking (5th of 12 on his debut at Kempton 4 weeks earlier) last October at Redcar (1m, good to soft) and did it in very good style staying on very strongly and beating a bunch of decent 2yos very easily, for example the second finished 3.25L behind him that day (was the favourite of that race) and has won twice since. Back on track at the end of May made his handicap debut at Sandown (1m2f, good to firm) off 79 and finished 2nd of 9, staying on after a slow start and coming just a bit short (3/4L behind the winner). This American bred colt is related to a US Grade 1 winner over hurdles and a Listed placed horse in France over 1m2f so he has stamina in his pedigree and showed that he would have improved once upped in distance in every of his first three outings. So it happened when he made his debut over 1m4f at Kempton in June (handicap off 82) and won in impressive style (smooth progress and staying on strongly in the final furlong). He beat (very easily) a number of good 3yos who have franked that form since: the second won last time out off a 1lb lower mark, the third bolted up last time out off the same mark, the fourth was beaten just a neck last time out, the fifth collected two seconds on his last two starts, the sixth won next time out, and the other 6 had won at least once on their previous starts. Upped 6lb for that nice success Willie Wag Tail raced off 88 23 days ago at Goodwood upped to a class 2 handicap again over 1m4f. He was extremely unlucky as he was badly hampered by Last Shadow who fell on the first bend and had a wall of 14 horses (was last of all) afterwards and was still last inside the final furlong with Buick struggling to find a gap. Stayed on well in the end even if wasn't asked any big questions and finished 8th of 16. That was a strong race with the winner able to win again under a penalty few days later, the sixth that has gone really close last time out and is a strong favourite in his race today (3.30 Newmarket) and plenty of good 3yos who had previously won more than one race. Good draw, good jockey in Jamie Spencer, stable in very good form, good weight allowance being a 3yo and hopefully a bit of luck in running should guarantee a big chance for my selection in what is a good quality handicap but few horses stand out.
    Days:155 -- Bets:396 -- Winners:92 -- Staked:1367 -- Balance:+411 -- ROI:+30.07%

  16. #16
    Join Date
    11 Nov 2005
    Location
    birmingham
    Posts
    2,589
    Thanks
    39
    Thanked 103 Times in 93 Posts
    Awards: 1

    Default Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 24th

    3.40 york nunthorpe

    now the ground has eased this has become wide open ,bated breath would have been rock solid on fast ground and ive always liked the chances of pearl secret as that horse is a big improver .......but at current prices/draw and ground i cant get away from SOLE POWERS chances today .the easing ground has gone marginally in sole powers favour now as it tempers the real speedsters ability to get away and one of sole powers worst attributes is that he likes to come from behind and thats what usually gets him beat but with a bit of cut it doesnt allow the likes of bated breath to get too far in front as they cant use their speed to full effect and gain ground on the field as on truly fast ground .its always best to be drawn near a rail as most winners of this race have proven so bated breath 15 is slight negative as opposed to sole powers 18 (positive) ........pearl secret is a big danger today as he is unknown quantity but there is no doubt that bated breath and sole power are the 2 fastest horses in the country over 5f and with bated breath and pearl secret hovering around 9/2 then the 8.0 on sole power is just to good to miss ,with 2.96 for a place all of the value now lies with sole power so that has to be the bet for me .

    sole power 10pts win 8.0 betfair 10pts place 2.96

  17. #17
    Join Date
    11 Nov 2005
    Location
    birmingham
    Posts
    2,589
    Thanks
    39
    Thanked 103 Times in 93 Posts
    Awards: 1

    Default Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 24th

    4.50 york

    may as well have a good go today as busy all weekend ........im quite surprised at prices available on this as INDIGNANTS speed rating of 87 says that his last run was pretty smart for the grade and on a par with burning blazes 90 ......bearing in mind that burning blazes time was on g/f and indignants was on good ......so with good today that seems to be a big positive....indignant also represents the powerful hannon/hughes combo so with burning blaze around 7/2 then the 17.5 on betfair on indignant looks amazing to me and leaves me scratching my head ......it proably because he did it in a maiden race and that form is generally played down but clock said his easy win was pretty smart and warrants respect in this weakish race if he can just improve a little .....worth a play

    indignant 10pts win 17.5 10pts place 3.5 betfair

  18. #18
    Join Date
    11 Nov 2005
    Location
    birmingham
    Posts
    2,589
    Thanks
    39
    Thanked 103 Times in 93 Posts
    Awards: 1

    Default Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 24th

    3.05 york

    stipulate sets the standard here and i think a reproduction of that run behind trumpet major will make him very hard to pin back as he was flying that day and met trouble in running still recording a fast time so this extra 1f today should hold no worries at all and for me only side glance looks a danger to him if he doesnt get the distance as that one is proven to last and also posseses a fair turn of foot but for me stipulate is a strong bet

    stipulate 5pts win 7/2 will hill

  19. #19
    Join Date
    26 Jan 2011
    Location
    Yorkshire
    Posts
    6,785
    Thanks
    337
    Thanked 232 Times in 200 Posts
    Awards: 5

    Default Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 24th

    Well the rain seems to have stayed away on the whole so I'll go ahead with my fancies, although no doubt it'll pour down now...

    2.30 York - 3pts win Pearl Acclaim @ 9/2 (PP)

    I actually think Richard Hannon's runner is quite a good price so long as this doesn't come to soon after his success at Ripon last Saturday. He's done nothing wrong on the racecourse yet and I think he can take this in his stride.

    He's clearly well-thought of in the yard to have been sent off the 4/5 favourite for a Newmarket maiden on debut, and the choice of Richard Hughes out of the two Hannon runners, especially as the supposed second-string has proven to be a very talented type himself. Pearl Acclaim ran well but it was other Hannon charge who won on that occasion and has subsequently won again before unseating (saddle slipped) when looking like winning a listed race in France. He would have beaten two horses rated in the 90s had the rider stayed on board so he's clearly a decent type.

    I personally don't think the ground was ideal on debut for my selection so to run as well as he did was promising. His action suggests he's a fast-ground type so fingers crossed it doesn't pour down prior to the race.

    He made no mistake when staying on well to score by an easy 3l at Sandown next time out in a weaker maiden - going further away at the finish under little pressure - and comfortably made it 2 from 2 at Ripon last week. He easily got the better of the favourite on that occasion who had done nothing wrong prior to the race (beaten a neck on debut and then 6l winner from subsequent victor) and a few other decent types.

    He seems to be improving all the time, the 6f here will suit and I think he'll be tough to beat.

    3.05 York - 4pts win Stipulate @ 7/2 (Bet365)

    Posted this before his run at Goodwood:

    2.35 Goodwood - 2pts win Stipulate @ 8/1 (Hills)




    Quite an open race for a Group 3 but I think Henry Cecil can continue his good week with his colt in here who has a progressive profile when getting his conditions and a decent chance on the figures. I don't think his ascent up the ratings has stopped, however, and conditions here look up his street.




    He clearly wants a sound surface having bombed out in the Sandown Classic Trial earlier this year, but his three other efforts as a 3yo have been very encouraging. He smashed the decent Mister Music by 4 1/2l on his first run of the season and horses in behind that day have also come out and franked the form. He was only headed late on back at Sandown two starts ago on better ground by the smart Cogito - who since ran well in the St James' Palace stakes at Royal Ascot despite never having much of a chance (held-up last and those up front dominated after a stricken horse hampered much of the field). Stayed on really well without the jockey getting serious though so it looks a good formline.




    Last time out Stipulate ran a cracker upped to 1m2f at Ascot on good to soft. Bumped into a nice horse but the way he travelled was encouraging. Definitely stays a bit further than the mile he steps back to today but he's a keen going type who travels well and that's a help here. Definitely will get home, the ground suits and has the speed to get him involved as well. Think he's going to go close.
    His effort here just confirmed the fact there's only one horse in the race for me as he ran really well and should have been closer. He travelled nicely but found himself lacking room on the inside but he didn't really quicken as much as anticipated straight away. I thought he was going to win when he found a gap but just took a bit of time to find stride before closing in at the finish. Wasn't beaten far at all and the return to a more galloping track with an extra furlong should be tailor-made for him.

    He's the only 3yo in the field and his allowance will make him hard to beat in my book. I don't really see too many threats. Don't really like Fury over 9f, Dubai Prince probably was made to look a bit too good by exploiting the stamina doubts of that one last time, Barefoot Lady isn't quite good enough in my eyes, ditto Questioning at this moment in time, and he wants softer. Tazahum won a weak race for me last time and will struggle moreso in this field. Side Glance is the only one I'm really fearful of but I don't think he'll be able to saddle 11lbs more than my selection and I think Sir Henry Cecil's young gun will take all the beating.

    4.50 York - 2pts win Pure Excellence @ 7/1 (Hills)

    Backing two Mark Johnston runners in a week - what has got into me?!

    However, this one is a bit different to his usual in-and-out handicappers as he's very unexposed with just two runs under his belt and I think he's capable of winning this off his current mark of 79. I think this underrates him somewhat and should be on the premises for sure.

    He overcame greenness to win on debut over 5f at Beverley - staying on well to win by a length. He shaped as if the step up to 6f would suit and he proved his stamina when improving plenty at Newmarket last time out in a handicap off a mark of 76. However, he also suffered from a nightmare passage and surely would have gone extremely close, if not winning, with a clear run. He was stuck on the stands rail and ended up losing ground without pressure being applied but finished really well when in the clear to go down by just 1 3/4l. The winner is clearly a nice type (won off 89 to make it back-to-back wins) and the runner-up (off 80) has subsequently gone down by 3/4l in a French Group 3. Was only just over 1/2l behind a 100-rated Tom Dascombe runner there and exactly 1/2l off a Richard Hannon horse with the same mark. That made a mockery of his handicap mark of 80 (since raised to 99) and that appears to make my selection nicely handicapped off 79 considering he would definitely have beaten that one, receiving 4lbs, but for his luckless run. The 5th ran well in a Group 2 here yesterday so the form looks very solid and my selection is just 3lbs higher today. I think he's going to run an absolute cracker and he just has to hope there's nothing equally well-treated in the field. He'll surely be winning races off this mark (and higher I believe) so this looks a good opportunity should he get the breaks.

  20. #20
    Join Date
    26 Jan 2011
    Location
    Yorkshire
    Posts
    6,785
    Thanks
    337
    Thanked 232 Times in 200 Posts
    Awards: 5

    Default Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 24th

    Now hearing it's been pissing it down. I despair. At least 1 won't mind at all, two have already run okay on good to soft but not ideal and the other is unknown. Will just have to hope it clears up and/or the horses cope.

  21. #21
    Join Date
    26 Jul 2010
    Location
    Mayo, Ireland
    Age
    27
    Posts
    22,527
    Thanks
    1,139
    Thanked 2,067 Times in 1,507 Posts
    Awards: 22

    Default Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 24th

    Quote Originally Posted by richard-westwood View Post
    3.40 york nunthorpe

    now the ground has eased this has become wide open ,bated breath would have been rock solid on fast ground and ive always liked the chances of pearl secret as that horse is a big improver .......but at current prices/draw and ground i cant get away from SOLE POWERS chances today .the easing ground has gone marginally in sole powers favour now as it tempers the real speedsters ability to get away and one of sole powers worst attributes is that he likes to come from behind and thats what usually gets him beat but with a bit of cut it doesnt allow the likes of bated breath to get too far in front as they cant use their speed to full effect and gain ground on the field as on truly fast ground .its always best to be drawn near a rail as most winners of this race have proven so bated breath 15 is slight negative as opposed to sole powers 18 (positive) ........pearl secret is a big danger today as he is unknown quantity but there is no doubt that bated breath and sole power are the 2 fastest horses in the country over 5f and with bated breath and pearl secret hovering around 9/2 then the 8.0 on sole power is just to good to miss ,with 2.96 for a place all of the value now lies with sole power so that has to be the bet for me .

    sole power 10pts win 8.0 betfair 10pts place 2.96
    Me personally, i am starting to worry about the ground for Sole Power Richard.. Good ground will be fine, but the weather ain't supposed to be great and it could go good to soft, and if it keeps raining, maybe even soft come the race, and if it does get any softer than good, Sole Power is in big trouble imo. That is why it is on a bit of a drift, i have it backed also.

  22. #22
    Join Date
    08 Apr 2009
    Location
    London/York
    Age
    24
    Posts
    2,058
    Thanks
    94
    Thanked 85 Times in 72 Posts
    Awards: 1

    Default Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 24th

    There’s no way that DUBAI PRINCE (15:05) should be priced at around the 6/1 mark, especially considering that he impressed in a muddling race on his penultimate start over this C&D, before being a blatant non-stayer over further last time out. This isn’t a great race I feel and if Dubai Prince can get return to form now dropped to what could be his ideal distance, then he should take this affair quite comfortably. Highly touted as a juvenile, he obviously had his problems once joining Godolphin and it wasn’t until September that he was seen last year. He won his reappearance effort over the 1m1f trip but disappointed subsequently in an Ascot Group 1 and also in Meydan, efforts that can obviously be excused. He made his return over this course and distance, coming nicely clear in the closing stages and beating Fury very easily by 4 ½ lengths. The way he finished that race suggested he was ready to take his chance at further once again, running at Goodwood over 1m4f. After making a promising move on the outside, he soon faded and he finished well-beaten, not showing the requisite stamina to land a blow. Although his trainer claims he may have some physical issues within his races which is why he can sometimes disappoint, today’s conditions may be more suitable. Firstly, the trip is perfect, having winning form over this distance. The rain York has had won’t be of any nuisance either, as his two victories since leaving Ireland have come with some cut in the ground and it could well be that the rain-softened ‘Good’ surface should encourage him to let himself down. This certainly doesn’t look a strong Group 3 and Dubai Prince has always promised to be much better than this level. With plenty to suit, this could well be the day where he starts to fulfil that promise, especially with Frankie Dettori taking the mount been a much more positive jockey booking than Ahmed Atjebi. Stipulate being priced as favourite is hilarious, as he hasn’t really shown enough to warrant that and that has provided opportunities further down the field for value. I’d have had Dubai Price closer to the 7/2 or 4/1 mark than his current odds of 6’s, and in a weak race, I’m confident of a strong showing.

    Bets
    15:05 York – Dubai Prince; 2pts @ 6/1 Bet365, William Hill (bog)

  23. #23
    Join Date
    15 Apr 2010
    Location
    Dublin
    Age
    29
    Posts
    3,113
    Thanks
    407
    Thanked 538 Times in 348 Posts
    Awards: 1

    Default Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 24th

    16.40 Wexford: Rigoletta @ 3/1 Bet365

    Waited more than a year for this, Rigoletta finally stepping up in trip. She is a 10x maiden but barely runs a bad race, finishing almost always in the money. Most of these forms working out very well but it emerged that she has not enough speed to win over trips ranging from 6f to 1m. She's by Teofilo who sired plenty of good middle distance horses so far and even though her dam only won over 1m (Listed race though) the dam's sire won the Epsom Derby. So there is plenty to believe that Rigoletta has the ability to stay much further than one mile in addition to the way she raced and performed in all her outings. She steps now up to 12f for the first time and I think that will see her improving allot. She showed some good form recently when finishing 4th in a 6f Leopardsown maiden just 3/4 of a lengths beaten after break and a 2nd place at Dundalk where was just beaten by a neck. It's not a strong maiden I feel so I hope Rigoletta can finally get off the mark here today.

  24. #24
    Join Date
    13 Nov 2011
    Posts
    981
    Thanks
    21
    Thanked 40 Times in 36 Posts
    Awards: 2

    Default Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 24th

    6.35 Hamilton

    ROKER PARK 4pts win @ 9/2 bog
    (Ladbrokes)

    I like a lot the chances of Roker Park in this race which is a class 4 handicap (0-85) where he is the top weight being rated 85, so just in. The 7yo gelding trained by David O'Meara has collected 6 wins in his career, first two over 5f and last 4 over 6f so this is surely his optimum trip at the moment. He goes on any ground but appreciates a softish ground and his best two efforts this year came on heavy ground, the best one being surely when 2nd of 13 (beaten 3/4L) over today's C&D (heavy ground) 6 weeks ago (his second last start) racing off today's mark of 85 in a good quality class 2 handicap (21k to the winner). He had finished 3rd of 14 (beaten 2L) racing off a mark of 91 in the same race last year (good to firm) on his previous visit to this course and was 3rd of 15 still in that race in 2009 racing off 94 (good ground). After he won his maiden in June 2007 in very good style he has mainly been racing in Group-Listed-Class 2/3 handicaps since and was dropped in grade down to a class 4 just thrice in his long career winning a class 4 handicap over 5f on soft ground at Musselburgh off 82 in 2008, 2nd of 12 (beaten a neck) in a class 4 handicap over 6f on good to soft at Chepstow in August 2010 (again off 82) and the last time he contested a similar class 4 handicap he easily won (last June at Catterick, 6f on good to firm off 80). His last win (July 2011) came off 85. Today's jockey Danny Tudhope knows him very well and Tudhope is having his best ever season (61 winners for an 18% strike rate so far in this 2012), won a very nice race at York yesterday with Dutch Rose for the same trainer and he has won 53 times for David O'Meara, 35 from 185 rides this year for an impressive level stake profit of +52.45. Tudhope is 11-79 here at Hamilton and 2-5 this season (40% and level stake profit of +6.75 this season and +6.88 overall). David O'Meara is also having his best ever season (started training in 2010) and saddled already 51 winners (14%) in 2012 (13 in June, 12 in July and already 9 in August, 6 of them in the last 12 days). So stable in very good form, good jockey, decent draw in stall number 6, drop in class, very good record over C&D, no problem at all with soft ground and on his last winning mark. This has to be a very big chance for Roker Park to add another win to his tally.
    Last edited by Edberg; 24-08-2012 at 11:23.
    Days:155 -- Bets:396 -- Winners:92 -- Staked:1367 -- Balance:+411 -- ROI:+30.07%

  25. #25
    Join Date
    18 Mar 2011
    Posts
    23
    Thanks
    1
    Thanked 6 Times in 2 Posts

    Default Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 24th

    2.00 YORK
    There's money to be made here (providing all goes to plan)
    Willie Wag is the obvious favourite here and I back her to win, great trainer on board with a fantastic record, the horses record is good aswell on similar tracks and distance, alot of horses in this race I feel are inexperienced for this race. Maybe someone will step up but if all goes to plan willie wag should take this comfortably. however I dont like to back horses to win in these types of races, as it is live animal racing anything could happen.
    My second choice is expert fighter EW, good trainer and good record this horse has huge potential and it's make or break time. I think it will step up to the mark in conditions that suit.

    Expert Fighter EW 1pt 12/1 bet365

  26. #26
    Join Date
    11 Nov 2005
    Location
    birmingham
    Posts
    2,589
    Thanks
    39
    Thanked 103 Times in 93 Posts
    Awards: 1

    Default Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 24th

    Quote Originally Posted by Aidymac View Post
    Me personally, i am starting to worry about the ground for Sole Power Richard.. Good ground will be fine, but the weather ain't supposed to be great and it could go good to soft, and if it keeps raining, maybe even soft come the race, and if it does get any softer than good, Sole Power is in big trouble imo. That is why it is on a bit of a drift, i have it backed also.
    i think they will be ok if its good/sft as most of these dont really want it soft .....if it did go sft then pearl secret would probably be more at home than the rest ,but at their best i think bated breath and sole power are a long way ahead so wouldnt have to have things perfect to still win ......hate the weather ....its messed up enough racing this summer ......i dont think sole power would want it soft so lets hope for the best

  27. #27
    Join Date
    26 Jan 2011
    Location
    Yorkshire
    Posts
    6,785
    Thanks
    337
    Thanked 232 Times in 200 Posts
    Awards: 5

    Default Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 24th

    Yeah it's a weird one. Will all depend just how much better (if at all) the main three as I see it (Bated Breath, Sole Power and Ortensia) are than the rest I think. Pearl Secret is the obvious curveball but is too short for me. Given all three want it quick, I'd sooner back BB of the three with cut but I don't think any are great value under the circumstances. Has every chance of being a no bet race for me unless the jockeys report it not to be bad and BB touches 11/2 or so.

  28. #28
    Join Date
    21 Feb 2011
    Posts
    1,943
    Thanks
    80
    Thanked 98 Times in 89 Posts
    Awards: 2

    Default Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 24th

    16.50 - York - The Taj @ 10/1 Coral, Ladbrokes

    Quite fancy the top weight here who i believe will relish the step back up to 6f. He won over that distance on debut at Doncaster in the soft ground, beating Marco Botti's Hasopop who has since gone on to win his next 2 races. The Taj's second outing was in the Coventry Stakes, he never really got into the race that day and finished half way down the field. He has ran twice since, both times over the minimum trip on pretty firm ground, he was hampered badly on the first of those runs and probably found things abit fast last time out, finishing as if he had more in the tank and the return to 6f would help him. He gets that today, the ground won't be a problem looking at his debut run and has a nice low draw in stall 4. Paul Hanagan takes over in the saddle from Tadhg O'Shea which is a massive plus in my opinion and despite the burden of top weight, i think he'll be in the mix here.
    Formally known as Bale-is-god

  29. #29
    Join Date
    27 Mar 2007
    Location
    Horsham (West Sussex)
    Posts
    3,913
    Thanks
    8
    Thanked 18 Times in 17 Posts
    Awards: 6

    Default Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 24th

    BATED BREATH 3.40 York.

    1 point win.

    Classy and should be able to run his race. The trip and ground's fine and deserves to win another race of this nature. Big chance today.

    9/2 Bet365 BOG

  30. #30
    Join Date
    01 Oct 2009
    Location
    Glasgow
    Age
    45
    Posts
    5,267
    Thanks
    358
    Thanked 316 Times in 301 Posts
    Awards: 2

    Default Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 24th


    Highest Odds at Marathonbet
    Crack open the Fosters !!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Booooooooooooooom

    Benny Harvey R.I.P

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

PuntersLounge.com supports responsible gambling. For more information visit GamCare, Gamble Aware and Gamblers Anonymous. Over 18's only.